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GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY LEADING INDICATOR
Following a decline of 0.4% in May, the Global semiconductor leading indicator fell 0.8% in June at a reading of 161.4. The index was set to average 100 in 2005.
“With our June global semiconductor industry leading indicator, we see the indicator continue to show signs of weakening, with all regions contributing negatively to the composite," commented Maria Simos Sogard, senior analyst. "In our June Global Semiconductor Industry Forecast report, we call for a low 3.3% increase in sales worldwide in the next 12 months compared with the previous 12 months. This global semiconductor industry forecast result is far below the recent 10 year average of 10% growth globally."
Looking at the six-month growth rate of the leading indicator - which is used in business cycle analysis for both signaling impending turning points in business activity and as a recession monitor, the six month growth rate was 1%, a retreat from May's rate of 2.9%. Consecutive positive values in the six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic recession and the beginning of an upcoming expansion.