Semiconductors

In this report, analysts estimate that the total market for metallic nanoparticles, nanoinks and pastes, and nanostructures will grow to around $2.0 billion (USD) by 2017. The report is the latest in the firm’s ongoing coverage of nanomaterials for electronics and energy applications which dates back to 2005.  It also detailed revenue forecasts for the materials covered broken out by application including printed circuit boards, consumer appliances, optical storage and more.

Although low single-digit growth is forecast for the total semiconductor market this year, there are several companies expected to register results that are quite different. Qualcomm, spurred by a smartphone market that is forecast to jump 73% this year, is expected to log a strong 33% increase in semiconductor sales in 2011! However, at the other end of the spectrum is Elpida, which is forecast to register a sales decline of 39% (a decline that is likely to be close to 50% when expressed in yen)!

The worldwide economy and the semiconductor industry will have to depend more upon consumer sentiment and confidence.  Will a new “fear factor” affect 2012 due to "Doomsday" worries?  Natural and human-made disasters have certainly affected 2011. How much companies invest in Fab spending depends on their revenue outlook, which in turn is dependent on the consumer. Economic uncertainties and political situations will influence consumer confidence and therefore any revenue outlook.

Taiwan captured the distinction of being the country/region with the largest share of installed wafer capacity in 2011 according to IC Insights' recently released Global Wafer Capacity 2011-12 report. As of mid-2011, Taiwan held 21% of global capacity, surpassing Japan (19.7%) and Korea (16.8%) to take over top spot for the first time. The Americas region with 14.7% share and China with 8.9% of capacity rounded out the top five.

IC Insights estimates that total global spending on smart grid technologies will reach about $100 billion in 2011, and those annual investments are forecast to nearly double to $196.9 billion in 2015. These annual figures exclude renewable energy systems, power plants, and "smart" home appliances, but cover the smart grid infrastructure, electrical storage systems, smart meters, and information technology investments.

Perhaps the most-watched system trend in personal computing today is the meteoric growth of the touch-screen tablet computers, which have become a major force in the large consumer market for portable computers that run multimedia applications and connect wirelessly to the Internet. In 2011, total personal computer units (including tablets) is forecast to climb to 414 million systems worldwide, which would be a 13% increase over 366 million in 2010 (Figure 1). However, if tablet computers are excluded from the market total, PC unit shipments are expected to grow by only a little more than 1% in 2011 to 353 million systems compared to 349 million in 2010.

Semiconductor fab equipment spending is expected to decline by approximately 11 percent in 2012. Spending on Fab equipment is expected to drop in the first half of 2012, but will sharply increase in second half of the year to approach $10 billion by the fourth quarter. While fab spending in 2012 (at $35 billion) is a decline from the 2011 level of $39 billion, it is still higher than in 2010. The years 2007, 2011 and 2012 are expected to be the three highest years on record.

The global market for LCD glass substrates is projected to cross 467.2 million square meters by the year 2017, primarily driven by rising penetration of LCD TVs and the growing demand for large size displays. In addition, technological advancements, mounting demand for display applications and government stimulus programs will provide impetus to the LCD industry and consequently drive growth in the market for LCD glass substrates. Asian markets including Korea, Taiwan and the recent contender China are the primary LCD glass substrates hubs worldwide and continue to accelerate development and expansion at an impressive pace.

Following a massive 36 percent increase in equipment spending in 2011, worldwide LED manufacturing equipment spending is projected to decline 18 percent in 2012.  Worldwide LED manufacturing capacity is expected to reach two million wafers in 2012 (4” equivalent per month), a 27 percent increase over 2011.

Global Organic Electronics market is forecast to reach US$32.8 billion by 2017, driven by increasing gamut of applications in conventional and niche end-use areas. Newer and expanding areas of application ranging from wide area displays and RFID Tags to Memory are pushing the growth frontiers. The technology, which had for long been mainly restricted to R&D labs, is now making an open, exciting foray into real-time commercial applications. In future, rapid technological advancements, expansion in end-use value chain, and low fabrication costs, will prompt higher demand and long-term success.