Independent 5-year Consumer Electronics Industry Forecasts for China

China’s consumer electronics devices market, defined to include computing devices, mobile handsets and video, audio and gaming products, is estimated to be worth about US$180.2bn in 2011, and this is expected to increase to US$263.0bn by 2015. In 2010 consumer electronics sales continued to grow strongly, boosted by economic recovery, product innovation and the rural subsidy programme.

In 2011, Chinese sales of TV sets contracted sharply, due to mature demand in major cities, leading to retailer inventory caution. Vendors are looking to newer technologies such as LED TV sets, which are expected to comprise around 50% of flat-panel sales, and 3D TV sets, forecast at around 10-20%, to drive sales.

Smartphones are one particular growth area, with high double-digit growth forecast in 2011. A second phase of the government’s rural consumer electronics subsidy programme will also drive sales of flatscreen TV sets and other products in rural areas.

Spending on consumer electronics products is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% through 2015, with demand for computers and TV sets in rural areas and tier-three to tier-six cities a key driver, along with the increased popularity of high-end items such as flat-screen TV sets, tablet computers, 3G mobile handsets and smartphones.

Computers

Computers accounted for about 39% of China’s consumer electronics spending in 2010. Researchers forecast Chinese domestic market computer hardware sales (including notebooks and accessories) of US$70.1bn in 2011, up from US$62.9bn in 2010. Computer hardware CAGR for 2011-2015 will be about 12%. The government’s rural computer subsidy programme will act as a significant driver, along with falling prices.

AV

AV devices accounted for about 39% of Chinese consumer electronics spending in 2010. China’s domestic video, audio and gaming device market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.0% between 2011 and 2015, up to a value of US$96.9bn. About 39mn LCD TV set units are projected to be sold in 2011, with strong double-digit growth as Chinese consumers demonstrate a preference for larger screen sizes and internet-enabled TV sets.

Mobile Handsets

China’s mobile handset sales accounted for about 20% of Chinese consumer electronics spending in 2010. Total Chinese market handset sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% to 488mn units in 2015. The rural market will be the main source of subscriber growth, while vendors will also focus a rapidly expanding 3G handset market and demand for smartphones, which currently accounts for about 20% of Chinese handset sales.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary  
Computers
AV
Mobile Handsets

SWOT Analysis  
China Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
China Electronics Industry SWOT  
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT  
China Business Environment SWOT

Asia Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Consumer Electronics Business Environment Ratings

Market Overview  
Government Authority
Hong Kong

Consumer Electronics Market
Computers
Table: Computers – Demand
AV
Table: AV – Demand
Mobile Handsets
Table: Handsets – Demand

Consumer Electronics Industry  
Table: IT Industry Overview
Table: China’s IT & Electronics Industry Revenue Breakdown By Sector
Table: China’s IT & Electronics Industry Output Breakdown By Product  
Table: Semiconductors Demand
Computers
Video, Audio And Gaming
Mobile Handsets

Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2015
Industry Developments

Macroeconomic Forecast  
China – Economic Activity  

Competitive Landscape  
Computers
Handsets
AV

Domestic Company Profiles
Semiconductor International Manufacturing Corp Public: HKEX, NYSE
Lenovo