The introductions of the Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF in 2010 marked the beginning of a new era in the transportation industry: the permanent establishment of electric-drive in the mass market for passenger vehicles. Ever-rising and increasingly volatile oil markets and better energy storage technology have suddenly brought electric vehicles (EVs) to the threshold of technical and economic viability. Car manufacturers have begun to take a new interest in EVs, spurred by governments’ attempts to reduce energy dependence and the environmental footprint of the transportation sector.

This report is a comprehensive account of the strategic opportunities created by the electrification of personal transport. It offers an extensive review of the technological, economic, and political trends shaping the EV industry. By investigating supply and demand drivers, it analyzes the industry trajectory for the next five years. The report relies on supply and demand analysis to assess industry growth and explores how the supply and demand dynamics are impacted by preferences and biases.

VALUE-ADDED ELEMENTS:

• Growth analysis and investment flows for global EV market through 2015.
• Breakdown of current EV economics and opportunities for reducing capital, battery and EV operating costs.
• Examination of supply-side manufacturer capacities and constraints to growth.
• Analysis of demand-side cost benefits, deployment programs and infrastructure constraints.  
• Over 30 strategic profiles of car manufacturers and charging structure infrastructure providers.

QUESTIONS FOR COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING:

• What technologies and companies are vying for market share?
• How fast will the market grow and what will drive growth?
• What other infrastructure elements will be required and what are the prospects for those?
• Are there alternative business models that might help address obstacles?
• How competitive are EVs relative to ICEs today, and how is this competitiveness expected to change over time?
• Which technologies will win, and what investment strategies are available to capitalize on that insight?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES

    1.1 Historical Perspective
        1.1.1 First Steps:
            Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries
        1.1.2 Dormancy (1935-1960s) and Awakening (1970s-1990)
        1.1.3 Adolescence: 2000s and Beyond
    1.2 Market Definition and Taxonomy
    1.3 Types of Vehicles
        1.3.1 ICEs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs
        1.3.2 Comparison of Vehicle Types
        1.3.3 Electric Motors
    1.4 Batteries
        1.4.1 Battery 101
        1.4.2 Performance Tradeoffs
        1.4.3 State of Technology (Fitness for Purpose)
    1.5 Charging Infrastructure
        1.5.1 Infrastructure Components
        1.5.2 Charging Mechanics
        1.5.3 Utility and Grid Infrastructure
        1.5.4 Other Charging Challenges
    1.6 The Case for Electric Vehicles
        1.6.1 Economic Benefits
        1.6.2 Oil Independence and Energy Security
        1.6.3 Environmental Benefits
        1.6.4 Other Benefits
    1.7 Conclusion

2. STATE OF THE INDUSTRY IN 2011

    2.1 Current Market Size and State of Technology Adoption
    2.2 Trends
        2.2.1 Rising Gasoline Prices
        2.2.2 Increasing Fuel Economy
        2.2.3 Changes in Consumer Attitudes and Behavior
        2.2.4 Changes in Regulatory Environment
        2.2.5 Development of the Smart Grid
        2.2.6 Emergence of a Startup Culture
        2.2.7 Battery Research and Development
        2.2.8 Commoditization of Charging Infrastructure
        2.2.9 Industry Consolidation
    2.3 Challenges
        2.3.1 Range Anxiety and Charging Time
        2.3.2 Deployment of Charging Infrastructure
        2.3.3 Risk of the Three Mile Island Effect
        2.3.4 Cost Differential
        2.3.5 Consumer Behavior
        2.3.6 Grid Capacity
        2.3.7 Competitive Response
        2.3.8 International Coordination
        2.3.9 Sales and Service Infrastructure
    2.4 Investment Flows
        2.4.1 Public Investment
        2.4.2 Private Investment
    2.5 Regulatory Environment
        2.5.1 General Attractiveness
        2.5.2 Financial Support
    2.6 Conclusion

3. EV ECONOMICS

    3.1 Economic Drivers
    3.2 Capital Cost
        3.2.1 Current and Future Battery Costs
        3.2.2 Other Drivers of Capital Cost Differentials
        3.2.3 Predicting Future Capital Costs
    3.3 Operating Costs
        3.3.1 Cost Drivers
        3.3.2 Predicting Future Operating Costs
        3.3.3 Relative Operating Costs: Evs vs. ICEs
        3.3.4 Payback Period
    3.4 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
        3.4.1 TCO in the United States
        3.4.2 International Perspective
    3.5 Conclusion

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2011-2015

    4.1 Supply Side of the EV Industry
        4.1.1 Players and Manufacturing Capacity
        4.1.2 Production Capacity: Passenger Vehicles
        4.1.3 Production Capacity: Fleet Vehicles
        4.1.4 Supply Chain Constraints
    4.2 Demand Side of the EV Industry
        4.2.1 Global Vehicle Fleet
        4.2.2 Substitutability Constraints
        4.2.3 Infrastructure Constraints
        4.2.4 Consumer Demand
        4.2.5 Commercial Demand
        4.2.6 Government Roll-Out Programs
        4.2.7 Conclusions
    4.3 Forecasting Market Growth and Technology Deployment Between 2011 and 2015
        4.3.1 Forecasting Vehicle Sales
        4.3.2 PHEV vs. BEVs in Vehicle Deployment
    4.4 Beyond 2015
    4.5 Conclusions: A Few Years of Creep, Then a Major Leap
        4.5.1 Market Conditions
        4.5.2 Industry Adaptations
        4.5.3 Architecture Evolution
        4.5.4 Capital Flows
        4.5.5 Final Remarks

5. COMPANY PROFILES BY SUB-SECTORS

    5.1 Established Car Manufacturers
        General Motors
        Nissan
        Mitsubishi
        Renault
        Toyota
        Volkswagen
        Daimler
        PSA Peugeot Citroen
        BMW
        Ford
        Honda
        Hyundai Kia
        Fiat/Chrysler
        SAIC
    5.2 Independent Car Manufacturers
        Tesla Motors
        Coda Automotive
        Fisker Automotive
        BYD
        Think Global
        Bright Automotive
        Chery Automobile
        Wheego Electric Cars
    5.3 Charging Infrastructure Providers
        Better Place
        ClipperCreek
        Coulomb Technologies
        Eaton
        ECOtality
        North America
        Epyon Power/ABB
        General Electric
        Leviton
        Schneider Electric

6. APPENDIX

7. BIBLIOGRAPHY


LIST OF FIGURES

1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES

    U.S. Electric Vehicle Timeline
    High-Level Electric Vehicle Market Taxonomy
    Electric Vehicle Configurations
    Electric Motor vs. ICE Efficiency Curve
    Comparison of Vehicle Types
    Batteries of Tesla Roadster, Nissan LEAF, and Chevy Volt
    Value Chain for Electric Vehicle Batteries
    Li-ion vs. NiMH
    Comparison of Li-Ion Chemistries
    Specific Energy and Specific Power of Different Battery Types
    Conceptual Illustration of Battery Discharge
    Average Daily Range Requirement for Personal Vehicles
    Proportion of Trips Possible From Batteries of Different Capacities
    Home Charging Times for Mid-Size PHEVs
    Charging Equipment from Select Equipment Manufacturers
    Battery Switch Station from Better Place
    Map of Public Charging Spots in the United States as of June 30, 2011
    Current Readiness versus Future Momentum of Top 50 Metros
    Technical Potential for Fueling the Regional LDV Fleet With Available Electric Capacity
    24-Hour Total Loading of Single Feeder
    Costs of Oil Dependence to the U.S. Economy, 1970-2009
    Energy and Carbon Intensity Values for Conventional Vehicles, Hybrids, and PHEVs

2. STATE OF THE INDUSTRY IN 2011

    Popular Electric Vehicles
    Weekly U.S. All Grades, All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices
    Gasoline Prices by Country
    Elasticity of Demand for Crude Oil - Estimates for Selected Countries (1971-2000)
    Oil Prices and HEV Sales, U.S., Historical
    LDV Fuel Economy
    Average Fuel Economy Trends Through 2008 by Region, With Enacted or Proposed Targets Through 2020
    Technology for Improved Fuel Economy and Reduced CO2 Emissions
    Top 10 ARRA Awardees in Electric Drive and Vehicle Battery Component Manufacturing
    Top 10 Venture Capital Investments in EV Companies in H1 2011
    Electric Vehicle Attractiveness by Country
    State-Level Incentives in the United States
    Financial Incentives for Electric Cars by Country (in EUR)

3. EV ECONOMICS

    Battery Cost Break-Up
    USABC Performance and Cost Goals of Li-ion Batteries
    Battery Cost Estimates With Production Volume
    Estimates of PHEV Li-ion Battery Pack Cost
    Learning Curves in Battery Manufacturing
    Electric Vehicle Cost Premium Forecasts in USD
    Key Drivers of EV Operating Costs
    Cycle Cost of Battery
    Simplified Variable Cost of ICEs vs. BEVs in the United States
    Cost Advantage of BEVs: 2012-2020
    Cost Advantage of BEVs, 2012-2035
    Gasoline and Electricity Cost in Select Markets
    International Comparison of Cost Advantage
    Total Cost of Ownership for Stylized Vehicles
    Sensitivity of Cost Advantage of Average BEV to Gasoline Prices and Subsidies
    Financing Vehicle Purchase With Car Loans
    Sensitivity of Cost Advantage of Average PHEV to All-Electric Range and MSRP
    Total Cost of Ownership of Currently Available Vehicles
    TCO Comparison Across Select Countries

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2011-2015

    List of Passenger Electric Vehicle Manufacturers
    Announced Production Capacity by Car Manufacturer
    List of Select Commercial Electric Vehicle Manufacturers
    Worldwide Lithium Production and Reserves
    Historical and Projected Contained Lithium Demand
    Lithium Harvesting in Bolivia' s Salar de Uyuni, the World' s Largest Salt Flat
    Demand and Supply of Rare Earth Minerals Worldwide
    Demand Constraints in the Electric Vehicle Industry
    Percentage Change in Car Fleet Growth (1996- 2008)
    Stock and Flow Data for Select Countries
    Unlikely Purchasers of Electric Vehicles
    Access to Recharge Spot by Location and Outlet Distance
    Consumer Interest in Alternative Powertrain Types
    Factors That Would Favorably Influence People' s Decision to Purchase a PHEV or EV
    Factors That Would Make People Hesitant to Choose a PHEV or EV
    Percentage Distribution of PHEV Designs by Early Market Potential Respondents
    Share of Vehicle Trips by Distance (2009 NHTS)
    Overview of EPA Driving Cycles
    Driving Cycles and Fuel Economy in the United States, Europe, and Japan
    Electricity Availability and Instantaneous Power demand by Time-of-Day in Watts (Weekday Average)
    A Selection of Fleet Electrification Announcements
    Announced Targets for Annual Sales and Stock Size by Country in 2015 and 2020
    Announced Targets for National Fleets (Cumulative Stocks), 2010-2020
    Third-Party Forecasts of EV Fleets in Different Regions
    Selection of Long-Term Forecasts by Various Third-Party Analysts

5. COMPANY PROFILES BY SUB-SECTORS

    List of Available and Announced BEV Models
    List of Available and Announced PHEV Models
    List of Charging Infrastructure Providers

VALUE-ADDED ELEMENTS:

    Growth analysis and investment flows for global EV market through 2015.
    Breakdown of current EV economics and opportunities for reducing capital, battery and EV operating costs.
    Examination of supply-side manufacturer capacities and contraints to growth.
    Analysis of demand-side cost benefits, deployment programs and infrastructure constraints.
    Over 30 strategic profiles of car manufacturers and charging structure infrastructure providers.

STRATEGIC INQUIRIES:

    What technologies and companies are vying for market share?
    How fast will the market grow and what will drive growth?
    What other infrastructure elements will be required and what are the prospects for those?
    Are there alternative business models which might help address obstacles?
    How competitive are Evs relative to ICEs today, and how is this competitiveness expected to change over time?
    Which technologies will win, and what investment strategies are available to capitalize on that insight?