NEW US industry forecasts for 2014 & 2019

US demand to increase 9% annually through 2014. Sales of electronic security products and systems in the US are expected to grow nearly nine percent per year to more than $17 billion in 2014. Growth will be driven in large part by a strong cyclical rebound in construction and capital investment spending from a low 2009 base, following a period of economic contraction and a tight credit environment. Ongoing technological improvements and falling prices are also major factors in sales growth, motivating customers to upgrade systems, and greater market penetration. Ultimately, the main driver of demand for electronic security equipment is the perceived risk of crime. Americans’ perception of crime risk has trended upward, despite the fact that actual crime rates have trended downward.

Access controls to continue growing at double-digit rates

This study covers six categories of electronic security products: access controls, alarms, closed-circuit television (CCTV), contraband detection devices, electronic article surveillance (EAS) systems, and automotive and other security products. Access controls represent the largest and fastest growing product segment. Advances will be driven by interest in automating security, reducing the need for traditional alternatives such as keys and security personnel. Demand will also benefit from the continued rollout of new technology, such as smart cards and biometrics, and the increasing adoption of these higher value technologies. However, relatively mature access control technologies such as magnetic stripe cards and keypad systems will continue to be used in many applications, due to their low cost and simplicity. In 2009, alarms accounted for the second largest share of electronic security equipment demand, benefiting from their widespread use in most markets.

Industrial sector to be fastest growing market

The fastest growing market for electronic security equipment through 2014 will be the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing, mining and construction, and utilities. The primary factor behind this growth is the market’s cyclical recovery from a low 2009 base. Going forward, the industrial market is expected to experience renewed investment in its facilities, including the installation of additional and upgraded security equipment, enabled in part by improved cash flow and access to credit as the economy recovers. Other markets projected to achieve above-average gains through 2014 include the financial institutions, offices and lodging, and services markets. In 2009, the consumer market, including residential security and personal automotive security, represented the largest share of electronic security equipment sales. The government and institutional market accounted for the second largest share of sales. Demographic trends and highly publicized incidents will drive security spending in many institutional facilities. Additionally, regulatory mandates, government adoption of new technology and interest in greater investment in border security will remain leading factors behind gains. However, future growth will be restrained by changing priorities and concerns about the federal budget deficit.

Study coverage

This report presents historical demand data (1999, 2004, 2009) plus forecasts for 2014 and 2019 by product (e.g., access controls, alarms, CCTV, contraband detection devices,. EAS systems) and market (e.g., consumer, government and institutional, trade and distribution, air transport, industrial, financial institutions, office and lodging). In addition, the study also considers key market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles 38 US industry competitors.

TABLE OF CONTENTS                                  

         I.       Executive Summary                                                                  

         II.      Market Environment                                                                  
                  General                                                                             
                  Demographic & Social Environment                                        
                     Demographic Trends                                                              
                     Employment Outlook                                                              
                  Macroeconomic Environment                                                          
                  Building Construction Outlook                                                      
                     Residential Building Construction                                               
                     Nonresidential Building Construction                                            
                  Building Stock Trends                                                              
                     Residential Building Stock                                                      
                     Nonresidential Building Stock                                      
                  Business Establishment Trends                                                      
                  Motor Vehicle Outlook                                                             
                  Public Safety Environment                                                          
                     Crime                                                               
                        Violent Crimes                                                               
                        Property Crimes                                                              
                        Terrorism & Other Nonconventional Crimes                                     
                           Terrorism                                                                 
                           Other Nonconventional Crimes                                              
                     Fire                                                                            
                  Pricing Dynamics                                                       
                  Legal & Regulatory Environment                                                     
                  International Environment                                                          
                     World Electronic Security Markets                                               
                     Foreign Trade                                                       

         III.     Technology                                                                         
                  General                                                                            
                  Electronics Overview                                                               
                     Electronic Components & Systems                                                 
                     Information Technology                                                          
                  Electronic Security Technologies                                       
                     Sensors                                                                        
                     Automatic Identification                                                        
                     Systems Integration                                                             
                     Environmental Control & Building Automation                                     

         IV.      Products                                                               
                  General                                                                            
                  Access Controls                                                                    
                     Card-Based Access Controls                                                      
                        Technologies                                                                 
                        Suppliers                                                   
                    Biometric Access Controls                                       
                        Technologies                                                 
                        Suppliers                                                    
                    Keypad/Combination Access Controls                               
                 Alarms                                                              
                    Local Alarms                                                     
                        Smoke Detectors                                             
                          Types                                                      
                          Suppliers                                                  
                        Local Intrusion Alarms                                       
                        Carbon Monoxide Detectors                                   
                          Types                                                     
                          Suppliers                                                 
                    Central Station Alarms                                          
                        Intrusion                                                   
                        Fire & Smoke                                                
                        Suppliers                                                   
                    Direct Connect Alarms                                   
                        Fire & Smoke                                                
                        Intrusion                                                   
                        Suppliers                                                   
                    PERS & Related Alarms                                   
                 Closed-Circuit Television Systems                                  
                    Cameras                                                         
                    Monitors                                                        
                    Recording Equipment                                             
                    Other Components                                               
                    Suppliers                                                       
                 Contraband Detection Systems                                       
                    Products                                                        
                        Bulk EDS                                                    
                        Metal Detectors, X-rays & Advanced Imaging Systems  
                        Trace Detectors                                             
                    Suppliers                                                       
                 Electronic Article Surveillance Systems                            
                    Products                                                       
                    Suppliers                                                       
                 Automotive & Other Electronic Security Products                    
                    Automotive Security Systems                                     
                        Anti-Theft Systems                                  
                        Keyless Entry Systems                                       
                        Vehicle Recovery Systems                                    
                        All Other 

        V.       Markets  
                 General   
                 Government & Institutional 
                    Sector Outlook 
                    Electronic Security Outlook
                       Government           
                       Institutions
                 Industrial      
                    Sector Outlook
                    Electronic Security Outlook
                 Trade & Distribution
                    Sector Outlook
                    Electronic Security Outlook
                 Air Transport       
                    Sector Outlook
                    Electronic Security Outlook   
                 Financial Institutions          
                    Sector Outlook                        
                    Electronic Security Outlook                                  
                 Office & Lodging Establishments                                  
                    Sector Outlook                                               
                    Electronic Security Outlook                                  
                 Services                                                
                    Sector Outlook                                                
                    Electronic Security Outlook                                   
                 Consumer                                                 
                    Sector Outlook                                               
                    Electronic Security Outlook                                   
                       Residential                                                
                       Automotive                                         

        VI.      Industry Structure                                               
                 General                                                          
                 Industry Composition                                             
                 Market Share                                                     
                 Research & Product Development                                   
                 Manufacturing                                                    
                 Marketing & Distribution                                
                 Mergers & Acquisitions                                          
                 Cooperative Agreements                                           
                 Company Profiles                                         
                    ADT Security Services, see Tyco International
                    Ahura Scientific, see Thermo Fisher Scientific
                    American Dynamics, see Tyco International
                    American Science and Engineering                              
                    Analogic Corporation                                          
                    Ansul, see Tyco International
                    ASSA ABLOY                                                    
                    Best Access Systems, see Stanley Black & Decker
                    Biometrics, see L-1 Identity Solutions
                    Bosch (Robert)                                                
                    Brady                                                 
                    BRK Brands, see Jarden
                    Checkpoint Systems                                           
                    Costar Video Systems, see Sielox
                    Cross Match Technologies, see Smiths Group
                    Danaher                                                       
                    DataCard                                                      
                    Diebold                                                       
                    Electronic Door Security, see ASSA ABLOY
                    Farran Technology, see Smiths Group
                    Federal APD, see Federal Signal
                    Federal Signal                                                
                    Fire-Lite Alarms, see Honeywell International
                    Frisco Bay Industries, see Stanley Black & Decker
                    Gamewell-FCI, see Honeywell International
                    General Electric                                              
                    HID Global, see ASSA ABLOY
                    Hitachi                                                       
                    Honeywell International                                       
                    IDenticard Systems, see Brady
                    Ingersoll-Rand                                                
                    IntelliVid, see Tyco International
                    Jarden                                                        
                    Johnson Controls                                              
                    JVC KENWOOD Holdings                                          
                    Kidde, see United Technologies
                    Klein Associates, see L-3 Communications
                    L-1 Identity Solutions                                        
                    L-3 Communications                                            
                    Lenel Systems International, see United Technologies
                      Linear, see Nortek
                      Marks USA, see NAPCO Security Technologies
                      MDI                                                       
                      Monitor Dynamics, see MDI
                      Morpho Detection, see General Electric
                      Motorola                                                  
                      NAPCO Security Technologies                               
                      Nortek                                                    
                      NOTIFIER, see Honeywell International
                      Onity, see United Technologies
                      OSI Systems                                               
                      Panasonic                                                 
                      Pelco, see Schneider Electric
                      Rapiscan Systems, see OSI Systems
                      Red Hawk Industries, see United Technologies
                      Retica Systems, see L-1 Identity Solutions
                      Royal Philips Electronics                                 
                      SANYO Electric, see Panasonic
                      Sargent & Greenleaf, see Stanley Black & Decker
                      SARGENT Manufacturing, see ASSA ABLOY
                      Schlage Lock, see Ingersoll-Rand
                      Schneider Electric                                        
                      Science Applications International                        
                      Securaplane Technologies, see Danaher
                      Securitron Magnalock, ASSA ABLOY
                      Sensormatic Electronics, see Tyco International
                      Sielox                                                    
                      Siemens                                                   
                      Silent Knight, see Honeywell International
                      SimplexGrinnell, see Tyco International
                      Smiths Group                                              
                      Software House, see Tyco International
                      Sonitrol, see Stanley Black & Decker
                      Sony                                                      
                      Spectrum San Diego, see Science Applications
                      Stanley Black & Decker                                    
                      STOPware, see Brady
                      System Sensor, see Honeywell International
                      Thermo Fisher Scientific                                  
                      3M                                                        
                      Tyco International                                        
                      United Technologies                                       
                      Vicon Industries                                          
                   Additional Companies Mentioned in the Study                  

LIST OF TABLES                                            

                   SECTION I -- Executive Summary
                   Summary Table                                                  

                   SECTION II -- Market Environment
        1          Populations & Households                               
        2          Employment Outlook                                           
        3          Macroeconomic Indicators                              
        4          Building Construction Expenditures                            
        5          Residential Building Construction Expenditures                
        6          Nonresidential Building Construction Expenditures             
        7          Housing Stock by Type                                         
        8          Nonresidential Building Stock                                 
        9          Business Establishments                                       
        10       Motor Vehicle Indicators                                     
        11       Violent Crime Levels                                                 
        12       Property Crime Levels                                                
        13       Other Crimes                                                         
        14       Fire Levels & Losses                                                 
        15       US Foreign Trade of Electronic Security Systems                      

                 SECTION III -- Technology
        1        Electronic & Computer Product Shipments                              
        2        Nonresidential Fixed Investment                                      

                 SECTION IV -- Products
        1        Electronic Security System Supply & Demand                           
        2        Electronic Access Control Supply & Demand                            
        3        Card-Based Access Control Demand by Product Type             
        4        Biometric Access Control Demand by Product Type                      
        5        Keypad/Combination Access Control Demand                     
        6        Alarm System Supply & Demand                                         
        7        Local Alarm Demand by Product Type                                   
        8        Smoke Detector Demand by Product Type                                
        9        Local Intrusion Alarm Demand                                        
        10       Carbon Monoxide Detector Demand                                     
        11       Central Station Alarm Demand by Product Type                        
        12       Direct Connect Alarm Demand by Product Type                         
        13       Personal Emergency Response Service (PERS)
                    & Related Alarm Demand                                           
        14       Closed-Circuit Television System Supply & Demand            
        15       Closed-Circuit Television Camera Demand                             
        16       Closed-Circuit Television Monitor Demand                    
        17       Closed-Circuit Television Recording Equipment Demand                
        18       Other Closed-Circuit Television Component Demand            
        19       Contraband Detection System Supply & Demand                         
        20       Contraband Detection System Demand by Product Type                  
        21       Electronic Article Surveillance System Supply & Demand              
        22       Automotive & Other Electronic Security Supply & Demand              

                 SECTION V -- Markets
        1        Electronic Security System Demand by Market                         
        2        Government & Institutional Sector Indicators                        
        3        Government & Institutional Sector Electronic Security Market        
        4        Industrial Sector Indicators                                        
        5        Industrial Electronic Security Market                               
        6        Retail Sales                                                        
        7        Trade & Distribution Electronic Security Market                     
        8        Air Carrier Outlook                                                 
        9        Air Transport Electronic Security Market                    
        10       Financial Sector Indicators                                         
        11       Financial Institutions Electronic Security Market                   
        12       Office & Lodging Construction Expenditures
                     & Building Space                                                
        13       Office & Lodging Electronic Security Market                         
        14       Service Sector Revenues & Establishments                    
        15       Service Sector Electronic Security Market                           
        16       Consumer Sector Indicators                                          
        17       Consumer Electronic Security Market                                 
        18       Residential Electronic Security Market                              
        19       Consumer Automotive Electronic Security Market                      

                 SECTION VI -- Industry Structure
        1        Electronic Security Sales by Company, 2009                          
        2        Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures                                
        3        Selected Cooperative Agreements                                     

LIST OF CHARTS                                                    

                   SECTION II -- Market Environment
        1          Year of Construction of Housing Stock, 2009                        
        2          US Crime Rates, 1998-2008                                          
        3          World Electronic Security System Market, 2009                      

                   SECTION IV -- Products
        1          Electronic Security System Demand by Product Type, 2009            
        2          Electronic Access Control Demand by Product Type, 2009             
        3          Alarm System Demand by Product Type, 2009                          
        4          Closed-Circuit Television System Demand
                      by Component, 2009                                             
        5          Contraband Detection System Demand
                      by Product Type, 2009                                  
        6          Electronic Article Surveillance System Demand
                      by Product Type, 2009                                  

                   SECTION V -- Markets
        1          Electronic Security System Demand by Market, 2009     

                   SECTION VI -- Industry Structure
        1          Electronic Security System Market Share, 2009