The recession has accelerated the shift of global electronics to China, including not only manufacturing but sales and design. China is growing as a global consumer of electronics, and Chinese companies like Huawei are overtaking multinational competitors. InForum’s forecast supports the view that the current recovery is real and sustainable, based on extraordinary government efforts and on Chinese-led growth. However, significant challenges to consumer spending and the inability of developed countries to sustain recovery efforts indefinitely, will lead to a long period of below normal growth.

InForum anticipates slow, below-trend growth both in electronics manufacturing TAM as a whole, and in outsourcing. InForum expects overall electronics TAM to contract in 2009, and resume growth for the remainder of the forecast period.  Over the forecast period, InForum expects electronics TAM to grow, while EMS revenue to be flat, and ODM revenue realize growth.  Year by year projections are available in the full report. The track record of this forecast is unmatched, proving 95% accurate year after year, both for current year estimates and three-year forecasts.

This market report provides detailed forecasts of each of the following sectors:  computers, communications, industrial electronics, instrumentation, medical electronics, automotive, military and aerospace. InForum sees automotive electronics as a significant opportunity, as the industry has suffered very significant contraction, but will start to grow again with higher (and more rapidly increasing) electronics content.  Other good opportunities will follow recovery in medical electronics and in the military/aeronautics segment.  There is likely to be significant growth and technology change based around handsets with an associated and cannibaliziation of the notebook market.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

CHAPTER 1 – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND PARTICIPATION 
1.1 Methodology 
1.1.1 Methodological Choices 
1.2 Team Approach 
1.3 Categorization 

CHAPTER 2. MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS 
2.1 A Long Time Coming 
2.2 The Case for Lift-Off 

CHAPTER 3 – RECOVERY SCENARIOS 
3.1 Demand Scenarios 
3.2 The Case for A Double Dip 
3.3 The Case for Chronic Underperformance 
3.4 The Case for Rapid Recovery 

CHAPTER 4 – OVERALL TRENDS IN TAM AND OUTSOURCING 
4.1 Growth Rates 
4.2 EMS and ODM
4.3 Growth Opportunities 

CHAPTER 5 – REGIONAL ANALYSIS 
5.1 Regional Definitions 
5.2 Regional Distribution of Outsourcing 
5.3 Global Labor Rates 
5.4 Other Geographic Metrics for Outsourcing 
5.5 Regional Trends in Outsourcing 

CHAPTER 6 – INDUSTRY SEGMENTS 
6.1  Computer Systems 
6.2 Communications 
6.2.1 Communications Market Evolution 
6.2.2  Handsets 
6.2.3  Economic Drivers 
6.3  Industrial 
6.4   Instrumentation 
6.5   Medical 
6.6  Military and Aerospace 
6.7  Automotive 
6.9  Consumer Electronics 

CHAPTER 7 – CONCLUSION