Drawing on a wide selection of publications on new generation TV services, this report deepens our forward-looking analysis of tomorrow’s video markets. Starting with a scenario-based approach, we offer readers figure-backed scenario of choice for 2020, along with an in-depth analysis of the way value will be newly distributed between the different TV industry players: producers, networks and distributors/broadcasters.

Key Questions Answered

• What weight will each of the TV distribution networks have in the equation? Will DTT and satellite remain relevant?

• What degree of competition between live TV and new services? Will Netflix make it in Europe?

• What impact will the Internet have on TV’s revenue models? What are the key sources of new growth?

• What impact will the Internet have on programme production? Can Europe’s production industry hold its own against American studios?

• What changes will we see in the value chain? Can the networks compete with Amazon and iTunes?

> Market data 2010-2020 for each of the countries examined:
   - Japan, USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK,

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Deliverable 1
Executive Summary (PDF - 20 pages)

Deliverable 2
Report (Powerpoint - 90 slides)

A. Introduction 
 1.Summary
 
 2. Methodology
 
 3. 2010: Current state of affairs
 • The open Web
 • Managed networks and live services
 • The new TV services market

B. Key Factors & Uncertainities
 4. 2020: Competition between distribution channels
 • Access: managed networks vs. the open Web
 • Devices: connected TVs
 • Growing trend: cord-cutting
 • Conclusion: new configurations for accessing video content

 5. 2020: Changes in the video offering and their affect on consumption habits
 • A time of major growth for TV networks’ solutions
 • A broad and diverse online selection
 • Internet changing viewing habits
 • Live TV audience stagnating
 • Conclusion: live TV vs. video consumption

 6. 2020: Revenue models being re-examined
 • Pay-TV the main source of growth
 • Fragmented TV audience and shrinking ad revenue
 • Online video destroying advertising value
 • Do paid online models have a future?
 • Piracy anticipating market needs
 • Conclusion: a sustainable online model

 7. 2020: New programme distribution windows
 • Network programming evolving
 • Live TV streams under assault
 • More and more distribution windows
 • Major imbalance in production financing
 • Conclusion: the new distribution sequence

 8. 2020: A revamped value chain
 • Competition over distribution
 • Ad brokering: highly coveted by new entrants
 • Conclusion: broadcasters’ role being weakened

C. Scenarios & Strategies
 9. 2020: Long-term outlook
 • Scenario 1: “Managed networks win the day”
 • Scenario 2: “Advertising goes OTT”
 • Scenario 3: “Cord-cutting”

 10. 2020:
 • Based on the three extreme scenarios


 11. 2020: Value sharing
 • Changes in how value is shared in the advertising market
 • Changes in how value is shared in the pay-TV market
 • Conclusion: TV network growth being shaped by how the online industry evolves

Deliverable 3

Database (Excel)
• TV Data
• Average viewing time
• Advertising market
• Paid services take-up
• Paid services market

Data & Forecasts 2010-2020

• TV Data
 - TV households
 - Managed broadcast-only networks HH
 - Managed two-way networks HH
 - Broadband HH
 - Active connected TV HH
 - 3G/4G subscribers

• Time spent per Avarege Individual
Fixed managed networks
 - Linear TV
 - Premium on demand services
Fixed OTT
 - Premium on demand services
 - Short clips
Of which connected TV
 - Premium on demand services
 - Short clips
Mobile
 - Premium on demand services
 - Short clips
Total time spent
 - Linear TV
 - Premium on demand
 - Short clips

• Pay Services Take-up
 - Linear Pay-TV subscribers
 - Monthly ARPU linear pay-TV
 - SVOD services subscribers
 - Monthly ARPU SVOD

 - Managed VOD purchase per eligible HH per month- OTT VOD purchase per eligible HH per month
 - Mobile pay services subscribers (m)
 - Monthly ARPU Mobile SVOD
 - VOD purchase per 3G subscriber per month

• The Advertising Market
Fixed managed networks
 - Linear TV
 - Premium on demand services
Fixed OTT
 - Premium on demand services
 - Short clips
Of which connected TV
 - Premium on demand services
 - Short clips
Mobile
 - Premium on demand services
 - Short clips
Total time spent
 - Linear TV
 - Premium on demand
 - Short clips

• Pay Services Market 
Fixed Managed networks 
 - Linear Pay-TV 
 - SVOD 
 - VOD 
Fixed OTT 
 - SVOD 
 - VOD 
Of which Connected TV 
 - SVOD 
 - VOD 
Mobile 
 - SVOD 
 - VOD 
Total Pay-TV services market 
 - Linear Pay-TV 
 - SVOD 
 - VOD 
 
• Total Video Market 
 - Fixed managed networks market 
 - Fixed OTT market 
Of which connected TV market 
 - Mobile video market 
Total video market