This report provides the Mega Trends in the Indian automotive powertrain market. It also offers market, legislative and technology trends as well as the profiles of key vehicle manufacturers. In this research, expert analysts thoroughly examine the following markets: gasoline powertrain, diesel powertrain, compressed natural gas/liquefied petroleum gas (CNG/LPG) powertrain, electric and hybrid, and transmission.

Rising Spending Power of the Middle Class to Fuel the Indian Car Market to Grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 9 Percent from 2010 to 2017

Low Car Penetration of Approximately 8 Cars per 1,000 People Signifies Huge Opportunities for the Automotive Industry in India

The rising Indian middle-class with increasing disposable income is a significant influence on the fortunes of the automobile industry, as customers are expected to shift their preferences from motorcycles to entry-level cars. Continued reduction in import tariff, coupled with investor-friendly norms pertaining to foreign direct investment, is expected to drive the total market growth. India has developed as a small car manufacturing hub for the domestic and international market. Apart from the cost advantage, the country also has a significant base of experienced auto component suppliers. Researchers note that in the passenger vehicles (PV) segment, small displacement engines will phase out the larger displacement engines, which will be restricted to the premium segments. Gasoline downsizing to comply with the Euro emission norms, along with turbo charging, will gain momentum and an increasing number of models will have alternate fuel capabilities, along with the ‘right-sized’ engines.

While the passenger car production in India is likely to reach 3.9 to 4.0 million by 2015 (the hatchback segment accounted for more than 50 percent of those figures), original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of gasoline passenger cars are likely to concentrate more on engine capacity within the range of 1.0 to 1.2 liter due to excise duty benefits. “Improved technologies for fuel economy are being implemented on modern gasoline vehicles,” says the analyst of this research. “These include multi-valve engines with variable valve timing and lift; as well as gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines with stratified charge lean mixture, engine downsizing, and turbo charging.” The medium and premium segment is likely to be dominated by the diesel passenger cars due to the better fuel efficiency of diesel variants and low cost of diesel. Technologies such as common rail direct injection and variable geometry turbo charging are the major growth drivers for diesel cars, providing more torque and power than gasoline passenger cars. Meanwhile, the growth in alternative fuel infrastructure has resulted in increased adoption of CNG and LPG vehicles, as CNG is 25 percent cheaper than gasoline.

Diesel and petrol hybrids are expected to remain a niche in the Indian market during the next three to four years, as plug-in electric hybrid vehicles are yet to gain momentum due to the lack of credibility in the existing battery technology. The existing battery solutions are limited to mini cars with low gross vehicle weight. The Government’s initiative to reduce the excise duty of hybrid vehicles is likely to make them more viable. OEMs are expected to offer hybrids to customers from 2012, mainly to indicate their environment-friendly approach. Micro hybrids or start-stop systems are likely to account for a large share of the hybrid market in India. Euro Norms enforced by the Government are helping to reduce pollution levels in the country. They are also aiding new technology adoption by OEMs such as multi-point fuel injection and common rail direct injection. “Natural gas has emerged as the most preferred fuel due to its inherent environment-friendly nature, greater efficiency, and cost effectiveness,” notes the analyst. “The preference for alternate fuels is witnessed not only in the A- or B-segment cars, but also in the C- and D-segments.”

Expert analysts thoroughly examine the following market sectors in this research:

• Gasoline powertrain
• Diesel powertrain
• CNG/LPG powertrain
• Electric and hybrid
• Transmission

TABLE OF CONTENTS

     Executive Summary                                                        14

     Mega Trends in the Indian Market                                         18

     Overview of Indian Automotive Powertrain Market                          23

     Market Drivers and Restraints for Indian Automotive Powertrain Market    27

     Emission Norms in India                                                  32

     Key Market, Legislative and Technology Trends                            35

     Engine Displacement Forecasts                                            36

     Forecasts for Passenger Car Production                                   37

     Frost & Sullivan Scenario for Fuel Production Type                       38

     Technology Trends in the Total Indian Automotive Powertrain Market       41

     Conclusions                                                              43

     Indian Gasoline Powertrain Market                                        44

     Technology Roadmap                                                       45

     Market Drivers and Restraints for Gasoline Powertrain Market             46

     Production Forecasts for Gasoline Engine                      50

     Production Forecasts for VVT in Gasoline Engine               51

     OEM Split for VVT Engine Technology                           52

     Conclusions                                                   53

     Indian Diesel Powertrain Market                               54

     Market Drivers and Restraints for Diesel Powertrain Market    55

     Variable Geometric Turbo Forecasts                            58

     Production Forecasts for Diesel Engine                        59

     Technology Trends in the Indian Diesel Powertrain Market      60

     Conclusions                                                   61

     Indian CNG/LPG Powertrain Market                                             62

     CNG/LPG Production Forecasts                                                 63

     Indian Electric and Hybrid Market                                            64

     Technology Roadmap                                                           65

     Technology Roadmap for Electric Vehicle Battery                              66

     Sales Forecasts for Electric Passenger Vehicles                              67

     Power of Electric Motor Vehicles                                             68

     Battery Specifications                                                       69

     Future Models for Hybrid and Electric Vehicle                                70

     Technology Trends in the Indian Powertrain/Electric and Hybrid Market        71

     Indian Powertrain Market Electric Engines and Hybrid Engines -Conclusions    72

    Indian Transmission Market                                                           73

    Manual and Automatic Transmission                                                    74

    Production Forecasts for Manual Transmission                                         75

    Transmission for Passenger Cars / Production Forecasts for Automatic Transmission    76

    Profiling of Vehicle Manufacturers                                                   77

    TATA Motors Ltd.                                                                     78

    Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.                                                             80

    Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.                                                             82

    Hyundai Motors India Ltd.                                                            84

    Ford India Private Ltd.                                                              86

    General Motors India Ltd.                                                            88

    Appendix                                                                             90

    Case Studies ­ Honda Civic Hybrid                                                   100

LIST OF FIGURES

    Evolution of Megacities: House hold Statistic (Delhi), 2009                                           22

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Fuel Composition for Petrol Passenger Cars (India), 2009          33

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Fuel Composition of Diesel Passenger Cars (India), 2009           34

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Overview of the Key Market, Legislative, and Technology Trends
                                                                                                          35
    (India), 2009

    Technology Trends in the Total Indian Automotive Powertrain Market                                    41

    Technology Trends in the Indian Diesel Powertrain Market                                              60

    Electric and Hybrid Market: Battery Specifications (India), 2010-2020                                 69

    Technology Trends in the Indian Powertrain / Electric and Hybrid Market                               71

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Classification of Passenger Cars (India), 2009                    92

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Locations and Capacities of Key Participants (India), 2009       103

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Historic Production (India), 2004-2009                           105

LIST OF CHARTS

    Evolution of Megacities: Urbanization (India), 2009 to 2025                                                 19

    Evolution of Megacities: Detroit of India, (Chennai), 2008 to 2030                                          20

    Evolution of Megacities: Distribution of Employment, (Mumbai), 2009                                         21

    Evolution of Megacities: Commuting Trend Patterns, (Mumbai), 2009 and 2025                                  21

    Evolution of Megacities: Commuting Trends, (Delhi), 2009 and 2025                                           22

    Evolution of Megacities: Delhi Megacity ­ Percentage Change in Primary Mode of Commute Pattern, (Delhi),
                                                                                                                22
    2000, 2009 and 2025

    Light Vehicle Production Forecasts ­ Pre-Recession and Post-Recession Scenarios (India), 2007-2017          25

    Automotive Industry in India ­ Segment-wise Production & Sales (India), 2017                                26

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (India), 2010-2015                        27

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Emission Roadmap for Passenger Vehicles (India), 2000-2015              32

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Displacement Forecasts by Engine Type (India), 2010-2015                36

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Passenger Car Production Forecasts (India), 2010-2016                   37

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Percent of Production by Fuel Type (India), 2009                        38

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Gasoline, Diesel and Alternative Fuel (India), 2010-2015       39

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Split of Engine Displacement (India), 2010-2015                 40

    Automotive Industry in India [Passenger vehicles]­ Sales Forecast by OEM (India), 2007-2017         42

    Automotive Industry in India [Passenger vehicles]­ Production Forecast by OEM (India), 2007-2017    42

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Key Conclusions (India), 2009                                   43

    Gasoline Powertrain Market: Technology Roadmap (India), 2009                                        45

    Gasoline Powertrain Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (India), 2010-2015                        46

    Gasoline Powertrain Market: Production Forecasts for Gasoline Engine (India), 2009                  50

    Gasoline Powertrain Market: Production Forecasts for VVT Gasoline Engine (India), 2009-2015         51

    Gasoline Powertrain Market: Production Forecasts for VVT Engine (India), 2009-2015                  52

    Gasoline Powertrain Market: Key Conclusions (India),                                                53

    Diesel Powertrain Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (India), 2010-2015                          55

    Diesel Powertrain Market: Production Forecasts for Variable Geometric Turbo (India), 2009-2015      58

    Diesel Powertrain Market: Diesel Engine Technology (India), 2006, 2010, and 2015                    58

    Diesel Powertrain Market: Production Forecasts for Diesel Engine (India), 2009                      59

    Diesel Powertrain Market: Key Conclusions (India), 2009                                             61

      CNG/LPG Powertrain Market: Production Forecasts (India), 2009                                     63

      Electric and Hybrid Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Vehicles (India), 2009-2020           65

      Electric and Hybrid Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Vehicle Battery (India), 2009-2020    66

      Electric and Hybrid Market: Sales Forecasts for Electric Passenger Cars (India), 2010-2015        67

      Power of Electric Motor Vehicles                                                                  68

      Electric and Hybrid Market: Key Conclusions (India), 2009                                         72

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Forecast for Manual Transmission (India), 2010-2015           75

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Forecast for Automatic Transmission (India), 2010-2015        76

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of TATA by Fuel Production (India), 2009                79

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of TATA by Fuel Production (India), 2015                79

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Maruti Suzuki by Fuel Production (India), 2009       81

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Maruti Suzuki by Fuel Production (India), 2015       81

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of M&M by Fuel Production (India), 2009                 83

      Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of M&M by Fuel Production (India), 2015                 83

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Hyundai by Fuel Production (India), 2009            85

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Hyundai by Fuel Production (India), 2015            85

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Ford by Fuel Production (India), 2009               87

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of Ford by Fuel Production (India), 2015               87

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of General Motors by Fuel Production (India), 2009     89

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Share of General Motors by Fuel Production (India), 2015     89

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Market Segmentation of Passenger Vehicles (India), 2009      91

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Gasoline DOHC and SOHC Engine Market Share (India), 2009     95

    Evolution of Diesel Engine Technology in Passenger Cars                                          96

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Diesel Engine Market Share (India), 2009                     97

    Total Automotive Powertrain Market: Market Share of DOHC and SOHC Diesel Engine (India), 2009    98