More than $2B will be invested over the 2011-2016 period in new equipment for LED packaging (LLO, permanent bonding, singulation and testing)

LED packagers are still using mostly retrofitted equipment from the IC industry and relying on existing technology solutions and materials to improve LED cost of ownership and performance. While this has allowed LED manufacturers to benefit from decades of research and development and investments in the IC industry, it also constrains the industry into the space defined by existing technology platforms that are not optimized for the specific needs of LEDs.  But the industry has now gained enough momentum and reached a critical mass to entice equipment and material providers into developing dedicated solutions for LED manufacturing. Many dedicated solutions are emerging from existing and new players that will allow significant reduction in LED manufacturing cost through improved yields, throughputs and material efficiency.

LED packaging equipment over-investment in the last 2 years leading to a short down-cycle starting in 2012

No LED manufacturers want to get caught short of capacity when the general lighting market scheduled to reach $20B by 2020 takes off. Thus, an unprecedented investment cycle started toward the end of 2009 and will extend through early 2012. This cycle initiated in Korea is now essentially fueled by subsidies and other incentives in China, as the country is aggressively trying to position itself as a future leader in solid state lighting. New entrants are investing massive amounts of money in order to displace existing manufacturers. This will lead to a world averaged overcapacity that will briefly exceed 50% for some tools (ie: capacity utilization rate of <50%) by mid-2012.

This in turn will cause a 12-18 month down cycle corresponding to the absorption of this overcapacity as well as some consolidations that will bring the industry back to more usual utilization rates of 80%. This down cycle will extend through mid-2013. Then analysts expect a new investment cycle to kick in to respond to further increasing demand for general lighting. This might lead to another shorter excess investment to be absorbed in 2016.

Material and component suppliers will enjoy a smoother ride with regular growth at a CAGR of 27.6% between 2011 and 2016.

Package substrate makers will see the fastest growth with a CAGR of 45% through the period. Phosphors will experience strong price pressure but still enjoy double digit growth with a CAGR of 12%.

With the intensifying competition, players try to differentiate themselves by proposing an increasingly wide variety of technology options for LED packaging. Substrate material options as well as assembly and interconnection techniques abound as as many workarounds to the limiting patents of the established players. New players from the general semiconductor markets propose new solutions based on their respective capabilities. Similarly to IC packaging, new technologies for LED packaging add up to the existing ones without completely phasing them out. And there’s still a lot of room for innovation that could allow capturing more added value. For such products however, it remains paramount that the solution offers an overall reduction in cost of ownership ($/lumen) to LED manufacturers.

This report reviews the major challenges associated with the key LED packaging process steps, and insights are shared on the pros and cons of the various technology options and their future forecasted trends.

It focuses especially on the most recent technologies and market trends for high power LED and packages and arrays and provides quantification for various materials and equipment associated with each of those key steps. Trends are analyzed in detail including emerging technologies like Silicon substrates, Wafer level packaging, COB etc.

WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT

• Equipment, material and chemical manufacturers to:

o   Have a global view on main market metrics

o   Identify new business opportunities

o   Understand the value-proposition of your product in this market
 

• LED makers

o   Get an overview on the competing solutions

o   Learn and anticipate the future trends in LED packaging

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acronyms
Introduction
Executive Summary
Methodology
Definitions Used in this Report
Comparison with 2009 LED packaging report.

I - LED Market Overview                       
High Brightness LED Package Segmentation
Qualified vs. Non-Qualified LED
Revenue by Application (Base Scenario)
Die Surface by Application (Base Scenario)
Volume by Package Types  (Base Scenario)
LED and Substrates Materials
Die Surface by Material Type (Base Scenario)
General Lighting Accelerated Scenario
Accelerated Scenario: Main Outcomes
GaN Capacity vs. Demand
Conclusion

II – LED Packaging Overview                       
The functions of LED Packaging: Why Packaging LEDs?
Integration Strategies
Key Components of a Packaged LED
GaN LED Chip Design Overview
Low & Mid-Power LED Packaging
High Power LED Packaging
High Power LED Packages:
Single vs. multiple dies
Leading LED Packaging Companies

III – Substrate Removal & Wafer Bonding               
Summary: Substrate Removal and Wafer Bonding
Introduction
Substrate Removal:

    - Laser Lift Off (LLO)
    - Chemical Lift Off (CLO)
    - Mechanical
    - Case of InGaAlP LEDs
    - Laser Lift Off Equipment Market

Wafer bonding:

    - Permanent Bonding
    - Wafer Bonding Equipment Volume

 
IV – Die Singulation                           
Summary
Introduction
LED Die Separation techniques

    - Blade Dicing
    - Laser Dicing
    - Diamond Scribing
    - UV Laser Scribing
    - Examples of manufacturing equipment
    - Comparison of Scribing Techniques for Sapphire
    - Breaking
    - Comparison of Die Singulation Techniques:
    - Stealth dicing
    - Serial Multibeam Laser Dicing
    - Parallel Multibeam Laser Scribing
    - Thermal laser separation
    - Etching

Singulation Equipment Market: Market Share per Technology
Singulation Equipment Market: Equipment ASP
Singulation Equipment Market: Volumes
LED Die Separation Equipment: Main Players

V – Packaging Substrates                       
Summary
Substrate Choice: Rationale For Thermal Management
Substrates for Low/Mid-Power LEDs
Substrates for mid-power LEDs
Thermal Management of high power LEDs
Overview
Material properties
Main design options
Overview of substrates and circuit board material options
Lead Frame / Heat Slug Substrates for high power LEDs
Ceramic Substrates For High Power LEDs
DPC- Direct Plated Copper
LTCC
Glass-Ceramic Substrates For High Power LEDs
Other Substrate Materials
High Power LEDs Integration Strategies
SMT Packages versus Chip On Board
MCPCB example
High Power LEDs Integration Strategies
SMT Packages versus Chip On Board
Chip on Board (COB) LED array
Connection to the fixture
COB versus package substrate Summary table
Other Design Options
Choosing the Substrate Type
Market Penetration Forecast by Substrate Type for High Power Packages (Volume, ASP, M$)

VI – ESD Protection                       
Summary
Introduction
ESD Protection Adoption
ESD/TVS protection
Zener/avalanche diodes
Where are ESD/TVS diodes used?
ESD Protection with Silicon Submounts
ESD in Ceramic
HB-LED ESD Protection Forecasts in Munits
High Power LED Package ESD Protection Market Forecast by diode Integration Scheme (M$)
Silicon Substrates Forecast
Key ESD diodes and submounts Manufacturers (non-exhaustive)

VII – Die Attach                           
Summary
Die attach Materials and Techniques
LED die attach
Standard epoxy/polymer adhesives
Silver-filled epoxies
Vertical LEDs and Back-side metallization
AuSn solder paste
AuSn Eutectic bonding
Eutectic bonding
Emerging technologies

VIII – Interconnects                      

Interconnections of large LED Chips
Interconnections
Wire bonding
Ribbon-bonding
Flip-Chip
Flip Chip Layout Principles and Technologies
World Map of High Power LED Companies Using Flip Chip or designing for flip chip
Current Distribution : Vias

 IX – Encapsulation and Optics                  
Summary
Encapsulation and Primary Optics
Overview
LED Optics Examples
LED Lens Materials:
Focus on Silicone

    - Process
    - Printing
    - Molding
    - Micro-replication
    - Gradient index lens wafers

Volume breakdown per function
ASP
Revenue Breakdown per function
Volume breakdown per package type

X – Phosphors                           
Summary
How to make white light?
Key requirements
Types of pcLEDs:
Benefits of the various pcLED types - Trends
Phosphor Converted LEDs:
Overview
Phosphors
Deposition methods

    - Dispersion
    - Conformal and Plates
    - Remote phosphors

Most common compositions
Less common or emerging compositions

    - Quantum dots
    - Quantum dots: Main Players

Material Volume and Revenue

XI – Wafer Level Packaging                   
Summary
WLP operations for high power LEDs
Wafer Level Phosphor Coating
Wafer Level Optics- lens molding
Silicon Substrate and WLP for high power LEDs
Embedded Zener Diodes
Silicon Substrates, WLP and Flip Chip
Main actors by wafer sizes (R&D or production)
Silicon Substrates and WLP
Cost
World Map of high Power LED and Equipment Companies with Wafer Level Packaging Production or R&D projects
Silicon Substrates and WLP
WLP Long Term Vision: Wafer to Wafer packaging?
Challenges for Wafer to Wafer Packaging:
3-D interposer to combine MOSFET + ASIC LED driver
Example of initial achievements

XII – Testing and Binning                   
Summary
LED Testing and Sorting

    - Overview
    - Testing Workflow Example
    - Measurement Challenges
    - Wafer Level And Die Testing
    - Optical inspection and probing
    - Visual inspection and probing

Sorting & Binning

    - Overview
    - Package Testing and Sorting
    - Equipment, Capex and Throughput
    - Optical and visual Inspection
    - Packaged LED Testers, Sorters & Taping
    - Software

Testing Equipments: Volumes
Testing Equipments: Revenue
Testing Equipment: Main Players

XIII - Trends in Si Use for LED Packaging              
Silicon in high power LED Packages
Silicon Submounts
Silicon in LED Packages
Market Forecast
Conclusions

Conclusions