When it comes to a solar PV module's bill of materials, analyses have until now focused on polysilicon feedstock since it represented the bulk of the module’s cost. However, with the declines in polysilicon prices over the past two years beginning to level, and in light of thin-film PV’s increasing market share, supply and cost competition over PV’s complete bill of materials is mounting.

Analysts estimate that the cumulative market for these PV materials beyond polysilicon (see chart below for a complete list) will hit $12.8 billion over the next five years. This represents a 50% increase over the market’s 2010 value.  In addition, these materials’ current cost to module manufacturers is approaching that of polysilicon feedstock; it will therefore be crucial for industry players to understand future cost evolution and identify the role and business opportunities of each module material.

This report analyzes the economics, opportunities and players active in the global materials market, considering the key components for both crystalline silicon and thin film modules. The report presents crucial cost data in both $/unit and $/Wp for each material analyzed.

Value-added Elements:

• Market revenue and consumption forecasts by material through 2014; includes both crystalline silicon and thin film materials
• Assessment of market and technology drivers affecting material usage and cost
• Cost ($/unit and $/Wp) forecasts by material through 2014; includes crystalline silicon and thin film materials
• Analysis of current materials market, outlining innovations in materials production
• Company profiles of leading materials vendors and their offerings

Questions for Competitive Decision-making:

• How will PV market growth and technology progress interplay to affect materials cost and revenues?
• What are the relative contributions of different PV materials to crystalline silicon and thin film module cost structures?
• Which PV material markets present the greatest business opportunities for existing players and new entrants?
• At what point will PV material costs surpass those of polysilicon feedstock?
• Which industry players are competitively positioning their PV material business units?
• Which emerging materials solutions have the greatest potential for widespread adoption and step-function reduction in per-watt cost?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 REPORT SCOPE

4 COST DRIVERS IN MATERIALS
4.1 Conversion Efficiency 17
4.2 Commodity Pricing 19
4.3 Technological Advances 20
4.4 Yields 20
4.5 Wafer Size and Thickness 20
4.6 Manufacturing Equipment 20

5 CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV MATERIALS
5.1 Crystalline Silicon Technologies 21
5.1.1 Monocrystalline Silicon 21
5.1.2 Multi-crystalline Silicon 21
5.1.3 Ribbon Silicon 21
5.1.4 “Super” Monocrystalline Silicon 22
5.2 Cells 23
5.2.1 Cell Processing Steps 23
5.2.2 Paste 25
5.2.2.1 Paste Cost and Usage 27
5.2.2.2 Developments in Paste Technology 28
5.2.3 Screens 30
5.2.3.1 Screen Cost and Usage 31
5.2.3.2 Advances in Screen Technology 32
5.2.4 Gases and Chemicals 33
5.2.4.1 Ammonia (NH3) 33
5.2.4.2 Silicon Nitride (SiN) 33
5.2.4.3 Phosphorous Oxychloride (POCL3) 33
5.2.4.4 Silane (SiH4) 34
5.2.4.5 Hydrofl uoric Acid (HF) and Nitric Acid (HNO3) 34
5.2.4.6 Potassium Hydroxide (KOH) 35
5.2.4.3 Gases/Chemicals Cost and Usage 35
5.3 Modules 36
5.3.1 Encapsulant 37
5.3.1.1 Encapsulant Cost 39
5.3.2 Backsheet 40
5.3.2.1 Backsheet Cost 41
5.3.3 Frame 42
5.3.3.1 Frame Cost 43
5.3.4 Glass 45
5.3.5 Junction Box and Cable 47
5.3.5.1 Junction Box Cost 49
5.3.6 Ribbon 50
5.3.6.1 Ribbon Cost 51
5.3.7 Other Materials 52

6 THIN FILM PV MATERIALS
6.1 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) 55
6.1.1 Glass 58
6.1.2 Junction Box and Cable 61
6.1.3 Encapsulant 61
6.1.4 Cadmium Sulfi de (CdS) 62
6.1.5 Cadmium Telluride Compound (CdTe) 63
6.1.5.1 Tellurium Price Movements and Availability 64
6.1.5.2 CdTe Usage and Cost 65
6.1.5.3 Toxicity Issues With CdTe 67
6.2 CIGS 68
6.2.1 CIGS Compound 70
6.2.1.1 Copper 70
6.2.1.2 Gallium 71
6.2.1.3 Indium 72
6.2.1.4 Indium Availability 74
6.2.1.5 Selenium 74
6.2.1.6 Cadmium Sulfi de (CdS) 76
6.2.1.7 Gases and Chemicals 76
6.2.1.8 Glass 76
6.2.1.9 Junction Box 77
6.2.1.10 Frame 78
6.3 Amorphous Silicon “A-Si” 79
6.3.1.1 Silane (SiH) 81
6.3.1.2 Nitrogen Trifl uoride (NF3) 82

7 MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST THROUGH 2014
7.1 Global PV Supply-Demand Forecast 85
7.2 Module Production Outlook by Technology 85
7.3 Global Materials Revenue Forecast 87
7.3.1 Total Materials Market Trends 87
7.3.2 Crystalline Silicon Materials Revenue 90
7.3.3 Thin Film Materials Revenue 91
7.4 Materials Consumption Projections 94

8 PV MATERIALS SUPPLIER PROFILES

LIST OF TABLES

Figure 1-1: Contribution of Cell and Module Materials to crystalline silicon pv Module Cost Structure ($40/kg vs. $150/kg Polysilicon Price Environment)
Figure 1-2: Global PV Installations, 2008-2014E (MW-dc)
Figure 2-1: Total PV Materials Revenue Forecast, 2010-2014 ($M)
Figure 2-2: Crystalline Silicon Materials Revenue Forecast
Figure 2-3: Thin Film Materials Revenue Forecast
Figure 2-4: Crystalline Silicon Materials Cost ($/Wp)
Figure 2-5: Thin Film Materials Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 2-6: CIGS Glass Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 4-1: Crystalline Silicon PV Cell and Module Materials Cost vs. Conversion Efficiency
Figure 4-2: Crystalline Silicon Cell and Module Conversion E” ciency Forecast
Figure 4-3: First Solar Module Cost Reduction Roadmap
Figure 4-4: Sensitivity of Crystalline Si Module Materials Cost to Silver Price
Figure 4-5: Impact of Manufacturing Process Yield on Module Conversion Cost
Figure 5-1: Sanyo HIT Cell Structure
Figure 5-2: Crystalline Silicon PV Value Chain
Figure 5-3: Crystalline Silicon PV Cell Manufacturing Process: Wet Chemistry Processing Steps
Figure 5-4: Crystalline Silicon Cell Manufacturing Process
Figure 5-5: Metal Paste on PV Cell
Figure 5-6: Aspect Ratio Illustration
Figure 5-7: Paste and Metallization Process
Figure 5-8: Historical Silver Prices, 2000-2010
Figure 5-9: Silver Paste Cost and Usage, 2010
Figure 5-10: Silver Paste Cost and Usage, 2010-2014
Figure 5-11: PV Cell Screens
Figure 5-12: Screen Pattern on Cell Back Side
Figure 5-13: Screen Cost and Usage, 2010
Figure 5-14: Nickel Prices, 2000-2010
Figure 5-15: Nickel Feedstock Levels, 2000-2010
Figure 5-16: Screen Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-17: Gases/Chemicals Unit Costs by Component, 2010
Figure 5-18: Estimated Total Gases/Chemicals Cost in Crystalline Silicon, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-19: Module Assembly Process Flow
Figure 5-20: EVA vs. Silicone Encapsulant
Figure 5-21: Crystalline Si Encapsulant Cost and Usage, 2010
Figure 5-22: Crystalline Si Encapsulant Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-23: PV Module Structure Displaying Backsheet Position
Figure 5-24: Crystalline Si Backsheet Cost, 2010
Figure 5-25: Crystalline Si Backsheet Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-26: Aluminum Frame Corner Assembly in PV Module
Figure 5-27: Crystalline Si PV Module Frame Cost, 2010
Figure 5-28: Crystalline Si PV Module Frame Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-29: Aluminum Historical Spot Price, 2005-2010
Figure 5-30: PV Glass Cost, 2010
Figure 5-31: Crystalline Si PV Glass Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-32: PV Module Junction Box
Figure 5-33: Junction Box on Back of Module
Figure 5-34: Intelligent Junction Box
Figure 5-35: junction Box and Cable Cost, 2010
Figure 5-36: Crystalline Si PV Junction Box Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-37: Crystalline Si Ribbon Cost, 2010
Figure 5-38: Crystalline Si Buss Bar Ribbon Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 5-39: Cost of Other Materials, 2010
Figure 5-40: Cost of Other Materials, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-1: Material Composition of Cell Structure by PV Technology
Figure 6-2: Projected Module Efficiency by Thin Film Technology, 2010-2014
Figure 6-3: Thin Film Materials Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-4: CdTe Module Structure
Figure 6-5: CdTe Manufacturing Plant
Figure 6-6: Closed Space Sublimation Process
Figure 6-7: Typical Thin fi lm PV Module Glass Features vs. Corning Specialty PV Glass
Figure 6-8: CdTe Glass Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-9: CdTe Junction Box/Cable Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-10: CdTe Encapsulant Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-11: CdS Material Parameters, 2010-2014
Figure 6-12: CdS Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-13: CdTe Compound
Figure 6-14: Cadmium and Tellurium Historical Prices ($/kg)
Figure 6-15: Projected Use of Tellurium in CdTe PV
Figure 6-16: CdTe Material Parameters, 2010-2014
Figure 6-17: CdTe Compound Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-18: CdTe Materials Cost, 2010-2014 ($/Wp)
Figure 6-19: CIGS Module Efficiency Distribution, 2009
Figure 6-20: CIGS Module Structure