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RF technologies use electromagnetic radiation or energy in the 15 kHz to 300 GHz range to accomplish a wide range of objectives, including broadcasting, two-way communication, manufacturing applications, and security and access control, to name only a few. This study is an update of a research report, first published in 2003, that describes and analyzes the market for seven “emerging” radio frequency (RF) technologies, including digital TV and radio, advanced cellular communications, wireless networking, the global positioning system (GPS), radio frequency identification (RFID), and RF plasma surface treatment.
The RF technologies covered in the 2003 report have continued to grow, to the point where they can no longer be considered “emerging” technologies. However, their extremely favorable growth prospects continue to set them apart from older, more mature RF technologies, such as radiotelephone or analog TV broadcasting, whose markets are growing more slowly or not at all. Researchers therefore believes that an updated market assessment is called for.
The economic importance of these seven RF technologies extends far beyond sales of equipment and related professional services. They support and make possible entire sectors of the economy, such as the wireless telecommunications industry. The services these sectors provide to end users are crucial to the efficient functioning of a modern economy.
RF technology is important not only from an economic standpoint but from regulatory, health, environmental, and national security perspectives as well. The increasing demand for RF bandwidth forces telecommunications regulators to consider ways of meeting the demand by opening new frequencies to the private sector and using regulatory or market mechanisms to allocate the available bandwidth among competing classes of users.
There are widespread concerns about the potential human health impacts of extensive exposure to RF emissions, such as a possible link between cell phone use and the incidence of brain cancer. While definitive evidence of cancer or other health impacts of RF exposure has not yet been found, the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has established international guidelines on human exposure limits for RF fields. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and other governmental agencies have also issued RF exposure guidelines of their own.
In addition to concerns about the human health impacts of RF emissions, there are the environmental issues. The latter range from the esthetic impacts of nearly ubiquitous cell phone towers to the potential adverse effects of low-level RF on wildlife and birds.
Finally, RF technologies are an increasingly important component of national security. Modern military doctrine blends information technology and wireless communications to create capabilities never seen before on the battlefield. The RF spectrum has been compared with fuel, water, and ammunition, without which tactical operations are not possible.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Despite their potential importance, no recent, comprehensive analysis of the fastest-growing RF technologies and applications is available. This report is intended to satisfy the need for an objective, quantitative analysis that addresses these technologies in the context of the overall RF market. More specific objectives are to accomplish the following:
•Identify the principal applications of these seven RF technologies, including applications that are expected to be commercialized in the 2010 through 2015 time frame
•Quantify and analyze historical (2009) sales of each RF application
•Identify and evaluate the impact of economic, business, demographic, technological, legal/regulatory, and other factors that will drive the future market for each of these applications
•Forecast future (through 2015) sales of each application, including applications that have not been fully commercialized
•Highlight the importance of these rapidly growing technologies to the RF industry as a whole
•Analyze the economic, business, regulatory, environmental, health, and other macro issues raised by projected trends in the size and structure of the RF market
INTENDED AUDIENCE
The report has been written for the entire RF interest community, including the following:
•Manufacturers, distributors and vendors of RF equipment
•RF-oriented consultants and systems integrators
•Regulatory, health, environmental and other government agencies concerned with RF
•Researchers
•The financial and analyst communities
This report is an analytical business tool with the primary purpose of describing and analyzing the size and dynamics of the global market for selected RF technologies and applications.
Major sections of the report cover the following topics:
•Summary of findings and conclusions
•Overview of the RF industry
•Rapidly growing RF technologies and applications
•Market size and segmentation
•Market drivers and constraints
•Detailed market projections by market segment, through 2015
•Long-term outlook for the RF industry
Highlights of the report:
•The global market for products utilizing digital radio, high-definition TV, advanced cellular, wireless networking, radio frequency identification, global positioning systems, and radio frequency plasma was worth nearly $201 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $416 billion in 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7% over the next 5 years.
•In 2010, HDTV accounted for more sales than any RF technology in this group. This sector is estimated at $91 billion in 2010 and is expected to increase at an 18.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach $212 billion in 2015.
•Digital radio has the highest projected growth rate over the next 5 years. This market is valued at nearly $5 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $12 billion in 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20%.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
RADIO FREQUENCY TECHNOLOGIES AND APPLICATIONS
STUDY BACKGROUND
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
INTENDED AUDIENCE
SCOPE OF REPORT
METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
DISCLAIMER
CHAPTER TWO: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SUMMARY TABLE GLOBAL MARKET FOR RAPIDLY GROWING RF
TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE, THROUGH 2015 ($ BILLIONS) 6
SUMMARY FIGURE GLOBAL MARKET FOR RAPIDLY GROWING RF
TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE, 2009-2015 ($ BILLIONS) 7
CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW OF RF MARKET
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RF 8
PROPERTIES OF RF . 8
Frequency and Wavelength. 8
Dispersion and Directivity 9
Wave Propagation 9
RF BANDS 9
TABLE 1 RF BANDS . 10
Very Low Frequency (VLF) Band . 10
Low Frequency (LF) Band . 10
Medium Frequency (MF) and High Frequency (HF) Bands 10
Very High Frequency (VHF) Band . 11
Ultra-High Frequency (UHF) Band 11
Super-High Frequency (SHF) Band 11
Extremely High Frequency (EHF) Band 12
RF TECHNOLOGIES 12
Established Technologies 12
TABLE 2 ESTABLISHED RF TECHNOLOGIES AND APPLICATIONS,
1895-1993 . 13
Rapidly Growing Technologies 13
Digital Radio . 14
Technology 14
Satellite DR . 14
Terrestrial DR . 15
Products 16
Broadcast Equipment (Satellite) . 16
Broadcast Equipment (Terrestrial) . 16
Receivers and Antennas . 17
High-Definition TV . 17
Technology 17
Standards 18
FIGURE 1 DIGITAL TV SYSTEMS . 18
Products 19
HDTV Program Production and
Transmission Equipment . 20
HDTV Set-Top Boxes 21
HDTV Displays . 21
HDTV Displays (Continued) 22
Advanced Cellular Technologies 23
Wireless Networking 24
TABLE 3 WIRELESS NETWORKING TECHNOLOGIES
Bluetooth. 25
ZigBee 25
Z-Wave 26
INSTEON . 26
Other Wireless Protocols . 27
Wi-Fi 28
Digital Mobile Telephone Systems . 29
Spread Spectrum Technologies . 30
Mesh Networking Technologies 31
Radio Frequency Identification 31
Transponders 31
Identifier Formats 32
Frequencies . 32
TABLE 4 COMMON U.S. TRANSPONDER FREQUENCIES
TABLE 5 PENETRATION CAPABILITIES OF RF TAG FREQUENCIES
TABLE 6 PENETRATION CAPABILITIES OF RF TAG FREQUENCIES
TABLE 6 (CONTINUED)
Power Sources . 35
Functionality . 36
Functionality (Continued) 37
Physical Form . 38
Summary . 38
TABLE 7 SUMMARY OF RF TAG FEATURES
Readers . 40
RFID Antennas and Other Hardware 41
Global Positioning Systems 41
Infrastructure . 41
TABLE 8 GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM COMPARISON
TABLE 9 HYBRID/AUGMENTED SATELLITE LOCATION-FINDING
TECHNOLOGIES 43
TABLE 9 (CONTINUED) 44
GPS Receivers 45
TABLE 10 COMMON TYPES OF GPS RECEIVERS 45
RF Plasma Sources and Applications 45
General Principles 46
FIGURE 2 TYPICAL (CAPACITIVE) RF PLASMA SYSTEM 47
Types of RF Plasma . 48
Capacitive RF 48
RF Induction . 48
Microwave RF . 49
Patent Analysis 49
FIGURE 3 U.S. PATENTS ON EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY
TECHNOLOGY AREA ISSUED AS OF DEC. 1, 2009 (NUMBER) 50
FIGURE 4 RF PATENTS BY NATIONALITY OF ASSIGNEE (%) 51
MAJOR RF APPLICATIONS . 51
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING 52
Datacasting 52
Interactive and On-demand Programming 52
TELECOMMUNICATIONS 53
Enterprise Applications. 53
Consumer Applications . 53
DATA NETWORKS 54
TABLE 11 RF DATA NETWORKING APPLICATIONS . 54
Personal Area Networks 54
Energy/Home Automation . 54
Medical Telemetry . 55
Personnel and Asset Tracking 55
Mobile Services 55
Local Area Networks . 56
Hot Spots . 56
Enterprise Networks. 56
Home Networks. 57
WLAN Phones . 57
Industrial Automation and Process Control 57
Wide Area Networks 58
SECURITY/IDENTIFICATION 58
TABLE 12 RF SECURITY/IDENTIFICATION APPLICATIONS . 59
Personnel Access Control/Monitoring . 59
Vehicle Entry and Control 60
Vehicle Entry and Control (Continued) . 61
Retail Anti-theft. 62
Asset Tagging 63
Baggage Identification and Tracking . 63
Library Books 64
Museum Collections 65
Document Tracking . 66
Hospital Patient/Staff/Equipment Management . 67
Anti-counterfeiting/Anti-tampering 68
Drug Anti-counterfeiting 68
Other Counterfeiting Areas 69
Livestock/Animal Identification 70
Cargo Container Security 71
Automatic Vehicle Identification 72
Parking and Gated Community Access . 72
Fleet Tracking/Vehicle Location. 73
Rail Car Identification and Tracking . 73
Mining Anti-Collision Systems. 73
Weighing Trucks . 74
Traffic Management . 74
Other Identification/Security Applications 75
E-PAYMENTS 75
RFID Payment Applications . 75
Highway Tolls . 75
Contactless Payment Cards . 76
Transit Fare Cards . 76
Other Formats. 77
Security Improvements 78
Cellular Payment Applications . 79
MATERIALS HANDLING/TRANSPORT/LOGISTICS 80
TABLE 13 RF MATERIALS HANDLING/TRANSPORT/LOGISTICS
APPLICATIONS 80
Production Tracking 81
Silicon Fabs . 81
Motor Vehicles 81
Other Manufacturing Applications 82
Automated Airline Baggage Systems . 82
Warehouse Automation . 83
Receiving . 83
Putaway. 84
Security/Documentation . 84
Picking . 84
Shipping 84
Shipment Tracking 85
Shipment Tracking (Continued). 86
SURFACE TREATMENT 87
Plasma Cleaning 87
Etching . 87
Electronics . 88
Medical Products. 88
Other Industries . 88
Surface Activation . 88
Coating . 89
MILITARY APPLICATIONS . 90
TABLE 14 MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF EMERGING RF
TECHNOLOGIES 90
High-Definition Military Imagery 90
Military Logistics Tracking and Security . 91
U.S. Department of Defense In-Transit Visibility
Network 91
Ordnance Security . 92
Other Defense Organizations 92
Smart Munitions Telemetry Equipment 93
Electronic Identification Tags . 93
Casualty Tracking Systems 93
Advanced Sensors 94
Tactical Communications 94
Enhanced Global Positioning System . 94
Tactical Command and Control Systems . 95
RESEARCH 95
Fusion Research. 95
Advanced Rocket Propulsion Systems 95
OTHER APPLICATIONS 95
Gaming and Entertainment 96
Location-Based Services 96
Smart Appliances 97
RF END-USER SEGMENTS 98
AGRICULTURE . 98
MINING 98
MANUFACTURING 98
HEALTHCARE 99
TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS . 99
COMMUNICATIONS 100
RETAIL/PERSONAL SERVICES . 100
GOVERNMENT/MILITARY 100
CONSUMERS 101
CHAPTER FOUR: GLOBAL MARKET FOR RAPIDLY GROWING RF TECHNOLOGIES
OVERALL MARKET 102
TABLE 15 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RAPIDLY GROWING RF
TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE, THROUGH 2015 ($ BILLIONS) 102
DETAILED MARKET ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, 20092015 . 103
TECHNOLOGY MARKETS 103
Digital Radio 103
FIGURE 5 GLOBAL DIGITAL RADIO MARKET, 20092015 ($
MILLIONS) 103
Satellite Broadcasting Infrastructure 104
TABLE 16 GLOBAL MARKET FOR SATELLITE DIGITAL RADIO
INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 104
Terrestrial Broadcasting Infrastructure 104
TABLE 17 GLOBAL MARKET FOR TERRESTRIAL DIGITAL RADIO
INFRASTRUCTURE, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) . 105
Digital Radio Receivers 105
TABLE 18 GLOBAL MARKET FOR DIGITAL RADIO RECEIVERS,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 105
HDTV . 106
FIGURE 6 GLOBAL HDTV SALES, 20092015 ($ MILLIONS) . 106
HDTVs . 107
TABLE 19 GLOBAL MARKET FOR HDTV DISPLAYS, THROUGH 2015
($ MILLIONS) 107
Set-Top Boxes 107
TABLE 20 GLOBAL MARKET FOR HDTV SET TOP BOXES,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 107
Digital TV Broadcast Equipment . 107
TABLE 21 GLOBAL MARKET FOR HDTV BROADCASTING
EQUIPMENT, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 108
Advanced Cellular Technologies . 108
FIGURE 7 U.S. MARKET FOR ADVANCED MOBILE
INFRASTRUCTURE AND HANDSETS, 2010 AND 2015 ($
MILLIONS) 108
FIGURE 7 (CONTINUED) . 109
Handsets 109
TABLE 22 GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART PHONE HANDSETS,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 110
Cellular Infrastructure . 110
TABLE 23 GLOBAL MARKET FOR ADVANCED CELLULAR
INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 110
Wireless Networking 110
FIGURE 8 U.S. WIRELESS NETWORKING DEVICE AND EQUIPMENT
SALES, 20092015 ($ MILLIONS) . 111
FIGURE 8 (CONTINUED) . 112
Personal Area Networks 112
TABLE 24 GLOBAL MARKET FOR BLUETOOTH TECHNOLOGIES
USED IN PAN APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 113
Energy/Home Automation . 113
TABLE 25 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RF TECHNOLOGIES USED IN
ENERGY AND HOME AUTOMATION APPLICATIONS, THROUGH
2015 ($ MILLIONS) . 113
Wireless Local Area Networking 114
TABLE 26 GLOBAL MARKET FOR WLAN TECHNOLOGIES,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 114
Small Office and Home Networks . 114
Enterprise Networks 114
Public WLANs/Hot Spots . 114
Industrial Automation and Process
Control . 115
WLAN Phones . 115
TABLE 27 GLOBAL MARKET FOR WLAN TECHNOLOGIES, 20092015
($ MILLIONS) 115
Wireless Wide Area Networking 116
TABLE 28 GLOBAL MARKET FOR WWAN MODEMS, THROUGH 2015
($ MILLIONS) 116
Other Applications . 116
TABLE 29 OTHER GLOBAL MARKETS FOR WIRELESS
NETWORKING TECHNOLOGIES, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 117
RFID . 117
FIGURE 9 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES, 20092015
($ MILLIONS) 117
FIGURE 9 (CONTINUED) . 118
TABLE 30 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES BY
APPLICATION, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) . 118
FIGURE 10 GLOBAL RFID MARKET APPLICATION SEGMENTS,
20092015 (%) 119
TABLE 31 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES BY END-
USER SEGMENT, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) . 120
FIGURE 11 GLOBAL RFID MARKET END-USER SEGMENTS, 2009
2015 (%) 120
FIGURE 11 (CONTINUED) . 121
Identification and Security Applications . 121
TABLE 32 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES IN
IDENTIFICATION/SECURITY, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) . 122
Hospital Patient/Staff/Equipment
Management . 122
Retail Anti-theft . 122
Livestock/Animal Tracking . 123
Automatic Vehicle Identification 123
Travel Documents 123
Personnel Access Control and Monitoring . 123
Vehicle Entry and Control. 124
Anti-counterfeiting/Anti-tampering . 124
Asset Tagging . 124
TABLE 33 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID ASSET TRACKING
APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 125
Baggage Identification and Tracking 125
Cargo Container Security and Tracking. 125
Library Systems 126
Museums . 126
Document Management . 126
E-Payments . 127
TABLE 34 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES IN E-
PAYMENTS, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 127
Highway Toll Collection Systems . 127
Mobile Payments 128
Other Contactless Payments. 128
Materials Handling/Logistics . 129
TABLE 35 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES IN
MATERIALS HANDLING/LOGISTICS, THROUGH 2015 ($
MILLIONS) 129
Manufacturing Automation 129
Supply Chain Management 129
Warehouse Automation . 130
Shipment Tracking 130
Military 130
TABLE 36 GLOBAL MARKET FOR MILITARY RFID TECHNOLOGIES,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 131
Military Logistics . 131
Other Military RFID Applications . 131
Other RFID Applications 131
TABLE 37 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFID TECHNOLOGIES IN OTHER
APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 132
Gaming and Entertainment 132
Location-Based Services 132
Smart Appliances . 133
Global Positioning Systems . 133
FIGURE 12 GLOBAL GPS EXPENDITURES, 20092015 ($ MILLIONS) 134
Infrastructure . 134
TABLE 38 GLOBAL MARKET FOR GPS SATELLITE
INFRASTRUCTURE, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 135
End-User Equipment 136
TABLE 39 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL MARKET FOR GPS END-USER
DEVICES, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 136
Vehicle Navigation and Location Systems 136
TABLE 40 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL MARKET FOR GPS VEHICLE
NAVIGATION SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2015 . 137
Consumer GPS . 137
TABLE 41 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL MARKET FOR CONSUMER GPS
DEVICES OTHER THAN VEHICLE NAVIGATION SYSTEMS,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 138
TABLE 42 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL MARKET MOBILE PHONE GPS
CHIPSETS, THROUGH 2015 . 138
Aviation . 139
TABLE 43 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL MARKET FOR GPS CIVIL
AVIATION NAVIGATION AND LANDING AIDS, THROUGH 2015 ($
MILLIONS) 139
Machine Control . 139
TABLE 44 GLOBAL MARKET FOR GPS MACHINE CONTROL
SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS) 140
Military . 140
TABLE 45 GLOBAL MARKET FOR GPS MILITARY APPLICATIONS,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 141
Other Applications . 141
Plasma Surface Modification Equipment . 141
TABLE 46 PROJECTED SALES OF RF PLASMA EQUIPMENT,
THROUGH 2015 ($ MILLIONS). 142
RF Components . 142
FIGURE 13 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RFICS, 2009-2019 ($ BILLIONS). 143
TABLE 47 GLOBAL MARKET FOR RF MEMS, THROUGH 2015 ($
MILLIONS) 144
APPLICATIONS. 144
TABLE 48 EMERGING RF APPLICATIONS SALES, THROUGH 2015 ($
MILLIONS) 144
FIGURE 14 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES MARKET SHARES BY
GENERAL APPLICATION, 2009 (%) . 145
FIGURE 15 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES MARKET SHARE BY
GENERAL APPLICATION, 2015 (%) . 146
END USERS . 147
TABLE 49 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGY END USER, THROUGH
2015 ($ MILLIONS) . 147
FIGURE 16 RF TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARES BY TYPE OF END
USER, 2009 (%) 148
FIGURE 17 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE OF END
USER, 2015 (%) 149
CHAPTER FIVE: LONG-TERM MARKET OUTLOOK
DEVELOPMENTS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE LONG-TERM
MARKET FOR RAPIDLY GROWING RF TECHNOLOGIES 150
ECONOMIC TRENDS 150
TABLE 50 GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH VS. PREVIOUS YEAR,
20052015 (%) 151
HEALTH/ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 151
PRIVACY ISSUES 152
PRIVACY ISSUES (CONTINUED) . 153
SECURITY ISSUES . 154
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 155
BANDWIDTH COMPETITION . 156
CHAPTER SIX: COMPANY PROFILES
CHECKPOINT SYSTEMS, INC. . 157
CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. . 157
D-LINK CORP. 158
DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE, LLP . 158
DENSO CORP. 159
DIGITAL ANGEL . 159
GARMIN CORP. . 159
HTC CORP. . 160
INNOVISION RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY, PLC 160
MEMX 161
NXP SEMICONDUCTORS N.V. 161
SAVI TECHNOLOGY . 161
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO., LTD. 162
STMICROELECTRONICS N.V. 162
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS 163
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION, LTD. 163
APPENDIX
ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS 164
ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS (CONTINUED) 165
ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS (CONTINUED) 166
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