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Suddenly and unexpectedly the cost benefit equation that has historically driven the growth of the robotics industry, has become unbalanced. When industries see such rapid declines, the cause is typically an industry wide unwillingness to modernize in order to meet changing customer needs. Very much the opposite has happened with the robotics industry. Here is an industry that, by all appearances, has done everything correctly. Robot makers have introduced new products that meet customer needs.
They have repeatedly modernized to keep pace with changing platforms for integrating design and manufacturing, and they have produced higher quality robots that continue to labor years beyond their anticipated service life. Yet the industry’s growth has effectively flat lined, not once, but twice. The first time occurred after the 2001 terrorist attacks, and it happened again during 2008. The great paradox of the robotics industry is that this apparently failing patient has amazingly strong vital signs. An industry that was once grounded in a handful of highly specialized types of industrial and space robots has expanded to include new, commercially viable types of domestic and professional service robots, as well as military and security robots.
This analysis describes the macro and micro developments that have begun to coalesce to produce a new era of sustainable growth that will propel the robotics industry to a greater than $21 billion worldwide market by 2014.
Robotics Technologies and global markets report aims to help those currently in, or preparing to enter, the robotics industry to take full advantage of emerging opportunities.
To that end, this report:
This market report views the robotics industry as presently divided into six types of robots defined by their application:
Robotics: Technologies and Global Markets report recognizes the European Union’s ambitious attempt to establish uncontested leadership in robotics, through the creation of the European Robotic Platform (EUROP) funded jointly by businesses and government. Along these lines, Chapter Three: Common Concerns addresses all of the technical issues identified by EUROP’s working groups. This chapter is equally useful to U.S. and Japanese companies interested in further developing sales in European markets. This first study with product demand forecasts that reflect:
The study presents separate forecasts for the six types of robots, both worldwide and regionally, for the 5-year period between 2009 and 2014.
Robotics market report also examines the more than 40 common issues and enabling technologies that pertain to all six types of robots. In addition it provides profiles of all key players, as well as abstracts and assignment information for key robot patents issued in this century.
In short, this report provides a comprehensive package of information that can help business executives and policy makers better understand the many and very different ways in which the robotics world works.
By the end of the 20th century, robots had become as familiar a feature of the industrial landscape as the time clock. The industry itself appeared to be following a smooth trajectory of growth, filling an increasing demand from the industrial sector while generating new ideas for bringing more robots into the service sector. As a result of the attacks on September 11th 2001, it was assumed that the new demand for security robots would increase the demand for robots in all applications. In fact, a far more complex constellation of events occurred. Rather than the expected growth, the industry entered a period of decline. As it appeared to recover, the World Bank revealed it would be necessary to downwardly adjust previous baseline estimates of the GDP in India and Communist China.
The year that followed, 2008, saw regional collapses of credit for so–called big ticket consumer credit. In the U.S., changes in the tax laws that eliminated deductions for interest on traditional auto loans drove consumers to use second mortgages, or home equity loans, to purchase cars. When the mortgage crisis emerged and home equity financing collapsed, a decline in demand for car and light truck production followed, with predictable negative consequences for the robotics industry. Massive intervention by central banks around the world and a trillion dollar economic stimulus package, which was signed into law in late January 2009 have revived hopes of the industry’s recovery.
While the events that financially damaged the robotics industry played out, major changes were taking place in robotics technology. With the exception of military robots, the U.S. has slowed its efforts to advance the state of the art. Japan showed periodic bursts of activity, but little in the way of true technological advancement. More by default than design, leadership in robotics has now passed to European Union countries. As part of a periodic scientific review process, EU nations attempt to assess how science and technology can be put to greater public use. One of the potential needs is robots that are developed to work along side humans, not on assembly lines, but as domestic and professional assistants.
By the end of January, 2009, mechanisms were in place to restore business and consumer lending, the U.S. was about to see an injection of tax dollars to revive its economy, and the EU countries were in the final stages of preparing a roadmap for revitalizing the robotics industry that was decoupled from past dependence on industrial robots. In short, the critical elements capable of restoring the robotics industry were in place.
The robotics industry will continue to see a minimal growth through the first half of 2011, then enter a slow recovery for the balance of the forecast period, achieving a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4%, as it reaches slightly more than $21 billion by the end of the 2009 to 2014 forecast period.
In addition to its value to executives with firms that are presently manufacturing or purchasing robots and robotics components, Robotics: Technologies and Global Markets offers instructive insights for those considering adding industrial robots to their production line or using service robots to augment their skilled and unskilled work forces. Members of the academic and investment communities that are unfamiliar with the recent and rapid improvement in service robots will also find this study valuable, as will technology policy makers and analysts.
SCOPE AND FORMAT
After the Introduction and Summary chapters, the report includes:
Chapter Three: A Unique Machine presents a brief history of robotics, and the evolution of a common definition of robots as a distinct class of machine, separate from automated machine tools and automated vehicles.
Chapter Four: The Six Basic Types of Robots describes how the robotics industry has divided into six applications–driven domains: industrial robots, professional service robots, domestic service robots, military robots, security robots and space robots.
Chapter Five: Enabling Technologies examines the technology that is required by all six types of robots identified in the previous chapter.
Chapter Six: Factors Influencing the Demand for Robots describes events and considerations from outside the robotic area that will directly influence the demand for robots during the 2009–2014 forecast periods. Then this presentation is repeated, focusing on each of the six types of robots individually.
Chapter Seven: Robot Patent Analysis provides a unique insight into the past, present and future of robotics by looking at the types of patents issued for each of the major types of robots. In this chapter the six general types are further subdivided by major applications.
Chapter Eight: Robot Forecasts follows the same breakdown of industry divisions as in the original BCC study published in 2003, and reproduces the information presented in the previous five chapters in a new set of forecasts through 2014.
Chapter Nine: Industry Profiles identifies corporations and organizations that have played, or are currently playing, a significant role in advancing the quality of what is referred to as “state of the art”.
ROBOTS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT
This report excludes software applications known as Internet robots, automated machine tools, and machines commonly referred to as intelligent assist and cybernetic devices that amplify, or otherwise enhance or regulate, human muscle movements.
This Report:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter-1: SUMMARY
| SUMMARY |
SUMMARY TABLE WORLDWIDE DEMAND FOR ROBOTS, BY TYPE, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
SUMMARY FIGURE WORLDWIDE DEMAND FOR ROBOTS, BY TYPE, 2007-2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
Chapter-2: A UNIQUE MACHINE
A UNIQUE MACHINE |
TABLE 1 ROBOT HALL OF FAME INDUCTEES |
POPULAR VIEWS OF ROBOTS |
PROFESSIONAL VIEWS OF ROBOTS |
DISTINCTION BETWEEN AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS |
DE FACTO U.S. DEFINITION OF A ROBOT |
EVOLUTION OF A GLOBALLY HARMONIZED DEFINITION |
TABLE 2 NATIONS SETTING THE ISO ROBOTIC STANDARDS (BY STATUS) |
Chapter-3: THE SIX BASIC TYPES OF ROBOTS
THE SIX BASIC TYPES OF ROBOTS |
SIX TYPE DIVISION |
TABLE 3 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 4 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 5 NORTH AMERICAN DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
FIGURE 1 NORTH AMERICAN DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, 2007-2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 6 EUROPEAN UNION DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
FIGURE 2 EUROPEAN UNION DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, 2007-2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 7 ASIAN DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
FIGURE 3 ASIAN DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, 2007-2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 8 REST OF THE WORLD’S DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
FIGURE 4 REST OF THE WORLD DEMAND FOR ROBOTIC SYSTEMS, BY TYPE, 2007-2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
DEMAND FOR WHOLE ROBOTS |
TABLE 9 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR WHOLE INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS, BY SPECIALIZATION, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 10 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR WHOLE DOMESTIC SERVICE ROBOTS, BY SPECIALIZATION, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 11 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR WHOLE PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOTS, BY SPECIALIZATION, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 12 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR WHOLE MILITARY ROBOTS, BY SPECIALIZATION, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 13 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR WHOLE SECURITY ROBOTS, BY SPECIALIZATION, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 14 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR WHOLE SPACE ROBOTS, BY SPECIALIZATION, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
HARMONIZATION WITH THE 2003 BCC ROBOT STUDY (ENG001A) |
TABLE 15 INDUSTRIAL ROBOT HARMONIZATION |
TABLE 16 DOMESTIC SERVICE ROBOT HARMONIZATION |
TABLE 17 PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOT HARMONIZATION |
TABLE 18 MILITARY ROBOT HARMONIZATION |
TABLE 19 SECURITY ROBOT HARMONIZATION |
TABLE 20 SPACE ROBOT HARMONIZATION |
DEMAND FOR SPECIALIZED TYPES OF ROBOTS |
INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS |
TABLE 21 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
DOMESTIC SERVICE ROBOTS |
TABLE 22 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SPECIALIZED DOMESTIC SERVICE ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOTS |
TABLE 23 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SPECIALIZED PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
MILITARY ROBOTS |
TABLE 24 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SPECIALIZED MILITARY ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
SECURITY ROBOTS |
TABLE 25 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SPECIALIZED SECURITY ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
SPACE ROBOTS |
TABLE 26 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR SPACE ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
Chapter-4: ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES |
TECHNOLOGIES |
ACTUATION |
ADAPTATION |
AUTONOMY |
CALIBRATION |
COGNITION |
COLLISION AVOIDANCE |
CONFIGURATION |
CONTROL |
DEPENDABILITY |
END EFFECTORS, GRIPPERS, AND DEXTEROUS HANDS |
HUMAN–ROBOT INTERFACES |
KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS |
LEARNING |
LOCALIZATION |
LOCOMOTION |
MANIPULATION |
MATERIALS |
MECHATRONICS |
TABLE 27 MECHATRONICS EDUCATION PROGRAMS (BS, MS, CERTIFICATION OR COURSEWORK) |
MISSIONS, TASKS AND PROCESSES |
MOTION CONTROL |
NAVIGATION |
PERCEPTION |
POWER MANAGEMENT |
ROBOT–ROBOT INTERACTION |
ROBUSTNESS |
SAFETY |
TABLE 28 GLOBAL SAFETY–RELATED EXPENDITURES FOR ROBOTS, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
SENSING |
SENSORS |
SENSOR FUSION |
STANDARDIZATION |
TABLE 29 ISO TC 184/SC 2 ROBOTS AND ROBOTIC DEVICE STANDARDS (IN PLACE AS OF JAN 15, 2009, LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY FROM OLDEST TO MOST RECENT) |
TABLE 30 ISO TC 184/SC 2 ROBOTS AND ROBOTIC DEVICE STANDARDS AND PROJECTS UNDER PERIODIC REVIEW (IN PLACE AS OF JAN 15, 2009, LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY FROM OLDEST TO MOST RECENT) |
TABLE 31 WITHDRAWN ISO ROBOTS AND ROBOTIC DEVICE STANDARDS AND PROJECTS (IN PLACE AS OF JAN 15, 2009, LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY FROM OLDEST TO MOST RECENT) |
TABLE 32 ISO STANDARDS AND PROJECTS RELATED TO, BUT NOT CATEGORIZED AS, ROBOTS OR ROBOTIC DEVICES |
SWARMS AND NETWORKS |
TELEPRESENCE AND TELEROBOTICS |
VISION |
Chapter-5: FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEMAND FOR ROBOTS
FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEMAND FOR ROBOTS |
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT AND ROBOT SALES |
FIGURE 5 BASELINE RELATIONSHIP OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOT SALES AND MANUFACTURING GROSS OUTPUT FROM 1979 TO 2001 (U.S.) (UNITS, $ MILLIONS) |
FACTORS INFLUENCING ALL SIX TYPES OF ROBOTS |
THE ONGOING FINANCIAL CRISIS |
U.S. SHIFTS FOCUS OF ROBOTICS RESEARCH TO THE MILITARY |
TABLE 33 CHANGES IN RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF PUBLIC AND PUBLIC–PRIVATE FUNDING SOURCES, 2003-2014 (%) |
EUROPE COORDINATES ITS ROBOTIC RESEARCH |
FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS |
PLUMMETING AUTO SALES |
COMPOSITES WILL LESSEN THE NEED FOR WELDING ROBOTS |
FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND FOR DOMESTIC SERVICE ROBOTS |
JAPAN’S DOMESTIC AND PROFESSIONAL ROBOTIC INITIATIVES |
TABLE 34 JAPAN’S DOMESTIC SERVICE ROBOT INITIATIVE |
TABLE 35 JAPAN’S PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOT INITIATIVE |
TAIWAN SEEKS LEADERSHIP POSITION |
FACTORS AFFECTING PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOTS |
TABLE 36 U.S. FINANCED ROBOT PROJECTS–CIVILIAN AGENCIES (1983 THROUGH 2009 FISCAL YEAR) |
FACTORS AFFECTING MILITARY ROBOTICS |
WARS FOSTER CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT |
TABLE 37 U.S. ARMED FORCES ROBOT RESEARCH (1983 THROUGH 2008 FISCAL YEAR) |
TABLE 38 ROBOT PROJECTS FINANCED BY THE DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY (1983 THROUGH 2009 FISCAL YEAR) |
TABLE 39 ROBOT PROJECTS FINANCED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (1983 THROUGH 2009 FISCAL YEAR) |
TYPES AND TIERS OF MILITARY ROBOTS |
TABLE 40 U.S. AIR FORCE UAV TIERS |
TABLE 41 U.S. MARINE CORPS UAV TIERS |
TABLE 42 U.S. ARMY UAV TIERS |
TABLE 43 U.S. ARMY FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEM UAV CLASSES |
TABLE 44 SIGNIFICANT NON–U.S. UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES |
TABLE 45 SIGNIFICANT U.S. UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES |
FACTORS AFFECTING SECURITY ROBOTS |
FACTORS AFFECTING SPACE ROBOTS |
TABLE 46 NASA FINANCED ROBOTICS PROJECTS (1983 THROUGH 2009 FISCAL YEAR) |
Chapter-6: ROBOT PATENT ANALYSIS
TABLE 47 ASSIGNED PATENTS BEARING TITLE “INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS” (BY ORIGINAL ASSIGNEE AND FILING DATE) |
A TECHNOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE |
TABLE 48 ROBOT WRISTS (BY ORIGINAL ASSIGNEE AND FILING DATE) |
IDENTIFYING TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP |
TABLE 49 SIGNIFICANT ASSIGNED ROBOTICS PATENTS (BY ORIGINAL ASSIGNEE AND FILING DATE) |
USING PATENTS TO IDENTIFY KEY NICHE MARKET PLAYERS |
TABLE 50 ASSIGNED PATENTS FOR CLEANING ROBOTS (BY ORIGINAL ASSIGNEE) |
TABLE 51 ASSIGNED PATENTS FOR MILKING ROBOTS (BY ORIGINAL ASSIGNEE) |
TABLE 52 ASSIGNED PATENTS FOR ROBOTIC TELEMATICS (BY ORIGINAL ASSIGNEE AND FILING DATE) |
ABSTRACTS OF NOTEWORTHY ROBOTICS PATENTS, BY PATENT NUMBER |
PROGRAMMED ARTICLE TRANSFER |
METHOD FOR TRANSFERRING WAFERS IN A SEMICONDUCTOR TAPE–PEELING APPARATUS |
WELDING MACHINE AND METHOD FOR ASSEMBLING SAME |
LINKING ELEMENT WITH SCREW JACK AND ITS USE FOR AN INDUSTRIAL ROBOT ARM |
PAINT SPRAY BOOTH WITH ROBOT |
SUPPORTING STRUCTURE |
METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR PROCESSING WAFERS |
LIGHT–PINPOINTING DEVICE FOR A ROBOT |
REMOTE CONTROL SYSTEM FOR BIPED LOCOMOTION ROBOT |
SCARA–TYPE ROBOT WITH COUNTERBALANCED ARMS |
STACK GRASPER FOR SHEET–LIKE PRODUCTS AND METHOD OF PALLETIZING USING A STACK GRASPER |
ERROR RECOVERY METHODS FOR CONTROLLING ROBOTIC SYSTEMS |
SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR AUTOMATICALLY FOCUSING THE ATTENTION OF A VIRTUAL ROBOT INTERACTING WITH USERS |
Chapter-7: ROBOT FORECASTS
TABLE 53 WORLDWIDE DEMAND FOR ROBOTS, BY INDUSTRY AND COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 54 ROBOTS DEMAND IN NORTH AMERICAN, BY INDUSTRY AND COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 55 ROBOTS DEMAND IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, BY INDUSTRY AND COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 |
TABLE 56 ROBOTS DEMAND IN ASIA, BY INDUSTRY AND COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 57 ROBOTS DEMAND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD, BY INDUSTRY AND COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
TABLE 58 ROBOT DEMAND BY INDUSTRY AND COMPONENT, THROUGH 2014 ($ MILLIONS) |
Chapter-8: ROBOTICS COMMUNITY PROFILES
ABB |
ADEPT TECHNOLOGY, INC. |
ADVANCING ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY FOR SOCIETAL IMPACT ALLIANCE |
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC. |
CARE PARTNERS |
CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY ROBOTICS INSTITUTE |
COLLÈGE DE FRANCE |
COMAU |
DENSO ROBOTICS |
EUROPEAN ROBOTICS RESEARCH NETWORK (EURON) |
EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS |
FANUC LTD. |
FARADAY ADVANCE |
FOSTER–MILLER |
FUJITSU FANUC |
GENESIS SYSTEMS GROUP, LLC |
HITACHI, LTD. |
HONDA |
INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS (IEEE) |
INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF ROBOTICS (IFR) |
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR STANDARDIZATION (ISO) |
IROBOT CORP. |
JOINT ROBOTICS PROGRAM (JRP) |
KAROLINSKA INSTITUTET |
KAWASAKI ROBOTICS |
KUKA ROBOTICS OF NORTH AMERICA |
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MIT) |
MATSUSHITA ELECTRIC INDUSTRIAL CO., LTD |
MITSUBISHI |
MOTOMAN |
NACHI ROBOTICS |
NATIONAL ROBOTICS ENGINEERING CENTER |
PILZ AUTOMATION |
ROBOTICS INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION (RIA) |
ROBOTICS ALLIANCE PROJECT |
ROBOTICS SOCIETY OF JAPAN |
SICK, INC. |
STÄUBLI |
UNIMATION |
UNIVERSITÀ CAMPUS BIO-MEDICO |
UNIVERSITÀ DI FERRARA |
UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA |
UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE |
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA–MERCED |
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO |
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA–SANTA CRUZ |
UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO |
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA |
UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS - AMHERST |
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI |
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN - ANN ARBOR |
UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO |
UNIVERSITY OF PARMA |
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA |
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON |
UNIVERSITY RESEARCH PROGRAM IN ROBOTICS |
VECNA TECHNOLOGIES |
VENTAX ROBOT, INC. |
VIGYAN RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC. |
VIKING ENERGY CORP. |
WASEDA UNIVERSITY |
WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE |
WORKSCIENCE CORP. |
YALE UNIVERSITY |
YASKAWA ELECTRIC |
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