Although SSDs have not found widespread acceptance in general-purpose PCs, those applications that benefit from this technology will drive the client SSD market to grow at an impressive 60% rate. It is estimated that in 2015 nearly 40 million SSDs will ship accounting for over $7 billion in revenues.

"We have followed the same methodology as our earliest forecasts, basing our projections upon interviews with prospective SSD customers.  This led to projections that should help participants benefit the most from this market," said Jim Handy, author of the report.  "Although our early forecasts were the most pessimistic in the industry, they have been the most accurate."

Mr. Handy introduced the report today at the Flash Memory Summit in Santa Clara, CA.

"The PC market for SSDs has been slow to develop," said Handy.  "The strongest growth has occurred in areas where HDDs simply will not operate and in systems for which users are willing to pay a significant premium for an SSDs' faster speed or greater durability."

The report, Solid State Disk Market Outlook 2010, spells out details of the SSD market, its mechanics and anticipated growth. Analysis is based upon numerous interviews with both manufacturers and users of the technology, and explains both what will become of this market and why it will develop the way that it will.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 
Introduction
   Time for Some Retrospect 
     Price Dynamics
     Practical Limits Dictate Acceptanc
   What is an SSD? What is Not an SSD?
   Low Barriers to Entry
     SSD Controller Chips
Comparing SSDs & HDDs
   Factors Expected to Drive SSD Growth
     "Instant On"
     Faster Execution
     More Rugged 
     Longer Battery Life
     Memory Leaks 
     Other SSD Advantages
     Ruggedness: Not a Significant HDD Failing
     SSDs are Pricey
     The Role of "Floor Price" in This Market 
     SSD vs. HDD Technical Specifications
     Sustained Read Rate
     Random Read Rate
     Sustained Write Rate
     Random Write Rate
     80/20 Read/Write Performance
     Average File Access Time 
     Read Latency 
     Active Power Consumption 
     Idle Power Consumption
     Standby Power Consumption
     MobileMark 
     Weight
     Shock
     Vibration
     Capacity 
     Operating Temperature
     Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF)
     Acoustic Noise 
     Price 
     Price per Gigabyte
     Putting it Together
     Can a User Have Too Much Storage?
     Will Embedded Applications Migrate to SSDs? 
     Total Cost of Ownership
  NAND Flash Endurance and Wear
     Wear Leveling
     Bad Block Management
     Just How Long Will a Drive Last?
     Wear Specifications 
     MLC vs. SLC 
     The Trim Command
     Microsoft Windows 7 SSD Support
SSD Markets
  Industrial
     Process Control
     Test & Measurement
     Financial & POS
  Military/Aerospace
     Combined Mil/Aero Forecast
     C3
     Navigation
     Weapons Systems
     Storage Appliances on Commercial Aircraft 
     Combat Vehicles
  Data Processing
     PCs 
     Desktop
     Notebook PCs
     Netbook
     Enterprise Servers
     Enterprise Storage (SAN & NAS) 
  Communications
     Switches & Routers
     Cellular Base Stations
  Consumer 
     Set Top Box 
     Media Server
  Combined Forecast
SSD Vendor Profiles
  SanDisk
     Overview
     Products
     Strengths
     Weaknesses
     Outlook
  Intel
     Overview
     Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
Samsung
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
STEC
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
Fusion-io
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
OCZ Technology
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
Super Talent Technology
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
Micron Technology
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
Pliant Technology
   Overview
   Products
   Strengths
   Weaknesses
   Outlook
SMART Modular Technologies
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    Western Digital Corp.
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    BiTMICRO Networks
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    Targa Systems
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    Transcend Information
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    Power Quotient International (PQI)
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    Ritek
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
      Outlook
    Hagiwara Sys-Com
      Overview
      Products
      Strengths
      Weaknesses
  Outlook
Delkin Devices, Inc.
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Kingston Technology
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Corsair
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Seagate Technology 
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Pretec
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Memoright
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Imation
  Overview
  Products
  Strengths
  Weaknesses
  Outlook
Apacer
  Overview
  Products
     Strengths
     Weaknesses
     Outlook
  AMP ­ Accelerated Memory Production
     Overview
     Products
     Strengths
     Weaknesses
     Outlook
  Hitachi
     Overview
     Products
     Strengths
     Weaknesses
     Outlook
  Anobit
     Overview
     Products
     Strengths
     Weaknesses
     Outlook
Controller Makers
  Greenliant
  Hyperstone 
  INDILINX
  Integrated Device Technology (IDT)
  JMicron Technology Corp 
  LSI Corp
  Marvell
  Phison Electronics
  SandForce
  Silicon Motion 
  Skymedi 
Technical Issues 
  Key Features for Important Niches
     Speed
     Low Power
     Military
     Predicting Failures 
     Environment
  SSD Interface Standards
     IDE or PATA 
     SATA 
     PCI Express
     SCSI 
     SAS
     Fibre Channel
  Wear: A Challenge for NAND Makers 
Market Impact
  How SSDs Will Impact the HDD Market
     How NAND Disk Caches could Undermine SSD Adoption
  Forecasts: HDD vs. SSD in PCs
     High Acceptance Model
     Low Acceptance Model 
     Most Likely Scenario
     Impact on NAND Sales 
Methodology
Figures
Tables
Author
     Jim Handy

LIST O FIGURES

Figure 1. DRAM vs. NAND Price per Gigabyte History
Figure 2. Flash Consumption as a Factor of SSD Acceptance
Figure 3. SSDs' Modest Impact on NAND Flash Demand
Figure 4. Example DiskOnModule
Figure 5. STEC USB Flash Disk Module
Figure 6. Power-Up Sequence of a Typical PC 
Figure 7. Power Consumption of a Typical PC 
Figure 8. The Declining Price Trend of the Average PC
Figure 9. HDD and NAND Average Price per Terabyte Declines Follow Similar Paths
Figure 10. At Low Capacities SSD is Cheaper than HDD
Figure 11. HDD vs. NAND Price Crossover Capacity Will Increase Over Time
Figure 12. Share of Average 3.5" Platter Devoted to Software 
Figure 13. 10K of Wear on a Single Block
Figure 14. 90K of Wear on a Single Block
Figure 15. 90K of Wear Spread across Sixteen Blocks 
Figure 16. Wear Causes the Capacity of the SSD to Diminish over Time
Figure 17. Combined NAND-SSD Revenue Forecast
Figure 18. Estimated msystems SSD Revenues 2000-2006
Figure 19. SanDisk Manufacturing Costs, Captive vs. Procured
Figure 20. NAND Revenue Market Share 2001-2009
Figure 21. SSD & HDD Interaction with Other Media 
Figure 22. Imation SSD Product Offering 
Figure 23. Inner Workings of a NAND SSD
Figure 24. Cross-Section of NAND Bit with Trapped Charge
Figure 25. Impact of SSD NAND Gigabyte Shipments

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Interfaces Included and Omitted from this Report
Table 2. Form Factors Included and Omitted from this Report
Table 3. Manufacturers of SSD Controller Chips
Table 4. Environmental Comparison of Typical SSDs and HDDs
Table 5. Environmental Comparison of Typical SSD, HDD, and Automotive HDD 
Table 6. Comparing Flash SSDs and HDDs
Table 7. SSD Shipments into the Process Control Market (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 8. SSD Shipments into the Test & Measurement Markets (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 9. SSD Shipments into the Financial & POS Markets (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 10. SSD Shipments into the Military and Aerospace Markets (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 11. SSD Shipments into the Desktop PC Market (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 12. SSD Shipments into the Notebook PC Market (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 13. SSD Shipments into the Server Market (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 14. SSD Shipments into the NAS and SAN Markets (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 15. SSD Shipments into the Switch and Router Markets (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 16. SSD and DOM Shipments into the Cellular Base Station Market (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 17. SSD Shipments into the Set Top Box Market (Millions of Units and Dollars)
Table 18. Intel's SSD Product Offering
Table 19. STEC SSD Product Offering 
Table 20. Fusion-io's SSD Product Offering
Table 21. The OCZ SSD Product Offering
Table 22. SuperTalent SSD Offerings 
Table 23. Micron Technology's SSD Product Offering
Table 24. SMART Modular SSD Product Offering
Table 25. Western Digital's SSD Product Offering 
Table 26. BiTMICRO Networks SSD Product Offering
Table 27. Transcend's SSD Product Offering
Table 28. PQI's SSD Product Offering
Table 29. Hagiwara's SSD Product Offering 
Table 30. Delkin's SSD Product Offering
Table 31. Kingston's SSD Product Offering
Table 32. Corsair's SSD Product Offering
Table 33. Pretec's SSD Product Offering
Table 34. Memoright's SSD Product Offering
Table 35. Apacer's SSD Product Offering
Table 36. Comparing Three PCs
Table 37. Potential Impact of NAND Layer on SSD Sales into the Notebook PC (Millions of Units and Dollars Worldwide)
Table 38. High Acceptance Model for SSDs in PCs (Millions of Units and Dollars Worldwide)
Table 39. SSD vs. HDD Unit Shipments into the PC Market (Millions ­ High Acceptance)
Table 40. Low Acceptance Model for SSDs in PCs (Millions of Units and Dollars Worldwide)
Table 41. SSD vs. HDD Unit Shipments into the PC Market (Millions ­ Low Acceptance)
Table 42. Most Likely Model for SSDs in PCs (Millions of Units and Dollars Worldwide)
Table 43. NAND Gigabyte Shipments Showing Impact of SSDs (Millions of Gigabytes Worldwide)