Russia is the world’s eighth-largest defense spender and is forecast to spend US$XX billion on defense during the forecast period.

Russia has the world’s longest border, a border that it shares with 14 other countries. It also has the world’s largest natural gas reserves, and also benefits from large deposits of many other minerals. Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter with over XX domestic defense firms that also cater to the entire needs of the Russian armed forces.

During the forecast period, Russia’s overall defense expenditure is estimated to record a CAGR of XX%, in accordance with the country’s commitment to the protection of its civilians and critical infrastructure. By 2016, defense expenditure is expected to account for XX% of Russia’s GDP, with an average per-capita defense expenditure of US$XX over the forecast period. The country is forecast to spend XX% of its arms procurement budget on research into defense systems. Attractive market opportunities expected to emerge in the forecast period include ballistic missiles, mistral-class ships, UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), T-90 tanks, helicopters and satellites.

This report offers insights into market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs to gain a market share in the Russian defense industry. In particular, it offers in-depth analysis of the following:

• Market opportunity and attractiveness: Detailed analysis of the current market size and growth expectations during 2010–2016, including highlights of the key drivers, to aid understanding of the growth dynamics. It also benchmarks the sector against key global markets and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
• Procurement dynamics: Trend analysis of imports and exports, along with their implications and impact on the Russian defense industry.
• Industry structure: Five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are likely to develop in the future.
• Market entry strategy: Analysis of possible ways to enter the market, along with knowledge of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
• Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Analysis of the competitive landscape of defense manufacturers in Russia. It provides an overview of the key defense companies (both domestic and foreign) along with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives and a brief financial analysis.
• Business environment and country risk: A range of drivers at country level, assessing business environment and country risk. It covers historical and forecast values for a range of indicators evaluating business confidence, economic performance, infrastructure quality and availability, labor force, demographics, and political and social risk.

SCOPE

• Analysis of defense industry market size from 2005 through 2010 and forecasts till 2016
• Analysis of defense budget allocation
• Benchmarking with key global markets
• Market opportunities
• Defense procurement dynamics
• Industry dynamics
• Market entry strategy
• Competitive landscape and strategic insights
• Business environment and country risk

REASONS TO BUY

• Gain insight into the Russian defense industry with current, historic and forecast market values
• Get insight into market opportunity and attractiveness
• Get insight into industry procurement dynamics
• Gain insight into industry structure
• Gain insight into regulations governing the Russian defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the competitive structure
• Identify top companies of the Russian defense industry along with profiles of all those companies

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction       
1.1 What is this Report About?       
1.2 Definitions       
1.3 Summary Methodology       
1.4 ICD Research Terrorism Index       
1.5 About ICD Research       
1.6 About Strategic Defence Intelligence  

2 Executive Summary      

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities       
3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast       
3.1.1 Russia’s annual defense expenditure is forecast to reach US$XX billion by 2016       
3.1.2 Defense exports, homeland security and military reform to drive defense expenditure       
3.1.3 Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to rise to XX% by 2016       
3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation       
3.2.1 Capital expenditure expected to be allocated an average of XX% of the total defense budget over the forecast period       
3.2.2 Expenditure on weapons acquisition expected to reach US$XX billion by 2016       
3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast       
3.3.1 Russian homeland security spending expected to reach US$XX billion by 2016       
3.3.2 Protection for key infrastructure and civilians to drive growth in the homeland security market       
3.3.3 ICD Research Intelligence Terrorism Index considers Russia a “highly affected” region       
3.3.4 Russia faces a significant threat from terrorists       
3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets       
3.4.1 Russian defense budget growth to be higher than majority of large spenders over the forecast period       
3.4.2 Russia expected to become world’s third-largest defense spender by the end of the forecast period       
3.4.3 Russia allocated XX% of its GDP to defense in 2010       
3.4.4 Russia is “highly affected” from acts of terrorism       
3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers       
3.5.1 Russia to invest in submarines       
3.5.2 Russia to invest in naval surface combatants to counter the threat arising from the growing naval power of South-East Asian countries       
3.5.3 Russia to invest in the procurement of armored vehicles       
3.5.4 Russia to invest in the procurement of helicopters and fighter aircrafts       
3.5.5 Russia expected to invest in the procurement of surface-to-air missiles  
   
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics       
4.1 Import Market Dynamics       
4.1.1 Outdated indigenous defense technology encouraging Russian armed forces to import for the first time       
4.2 Export Market Dynamics       
4.2.1 Over the review period, Russia was the world’s second-largest arms exporter       
4.2.2 Aircraft account for the majority of Russia’s defense exports       
4.2.3 The US, Germany and China are Russia’s main defense export competitors     
 
5 Industry Dynamics       
5.1 Five Forces Analysis       
5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low to high       
5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: high       
5.1.3 Barrier to entry: high       
5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: high       
5.1.5 Threat of substitution: high  
   
6 Market Entry Strategy       
6.1 Market Regulation       
6.1.1 Entry into defense sector is highly regulated       
6.2 Market Entry Route       
6.3 Key Challenges       
6.3.1 Aversion of Russian government to Western defense technology    
 
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights       
7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview       
7.1.1 Domestic industry in the process of consolidation for better focus and fund allocation       
7.1.2 Defense sector is dominated by domestic firms, with no foreign presence       
7.2 Key Domestic Companies       
7.2.1 Sukhoi – overview       
7.2.2 Sukhoi – major products and services       
7.2.3 Sukhoi – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.4 Sukhoi – alliances       
7.2.5 Sukhoi – recent contract wins       
7.2.6 Sukhoi – financial analysis       
7.2.7 Splav – overview       
7.2.8 Splav – major products and services       
7.2.9 Splav – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.10 Splav – alliances       
7.2.11 Splav – recent contract wins       
7.2.12 Splav – financial analysis       
7.2.13 Tactical Missiles Corporation: overview       
7.2.14 Tactical Missiles Corporation – major products and services       
7.2.15 Tactical Missiles Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.16 Tactical Missiles Corporation – alliances       
7.2.17 Tactical Missiles Corporation – recent contract wins       
7.2.18 Tactical Missiles Corporation – financial analysis       
7.2.19 Almaz-Antey – overview       
7.2.20 Almaz-Antey – Major Products and Services       
7.2.21 Almaz-Antey – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.22 Almaz-Antey – alliances       
7.2.23 Almaz-Antey – recent contract wins       
7.2.24 Almaz-Antey – financial analysis       
7.2.25 United Aircraft Corporation – overview       
7.2.26 United Aircraft Corporation – major products and services       
7.2.27 United Aircraft Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.28 United Aircraft Corporation – alliances       
7.2.29 United Aircraft Corporation – recent contract wins       
7.2.30 United Aircraft Corporation – financial analysis       
7.2.31 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – overview       
7.2.32 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – major products and services       
7.2.33 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.34 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – alliances       
7.2.35 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent contract wins       
7.2.36 KBP Instrument Design Bureau – financial analysis       
7.2.37 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – overview       
7.2.38 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – major products and services       
7.2.39 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.40 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – alliances       
7.2.41 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – recent contract wins       
7.2.42 V.A.Degtyarev Plant – financial analysis       
7.2.43 Kurganmashzavod – overview       
7.2.44 Kurganmashzavod – major products and services       
7.2.45 Kurganmashzavod – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.46 Kurganmashzavod – alliances       
7.2.47 Kurganmashzavod – recent contract wins       
7.2.48 Kurganmashzavod – financial analysis       
7.2.49 Uralvagonzavod – overview       
7.2.50 Uralvagonzavod – major products and services       
7.2.51 Uralvagonzavod – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.52 Uralvagonzavod – alliances       
7.2.53 Uralvagonzavod – recent contract wins       
7.2.54 Uralvagonzavod – financial analysis       
7.2.55 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – overview       
7.2.56 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – major products and services       
7.2.57 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.58 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – alliances       
7.2.59 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – recent contract wins       
7.2.60 Izhevsk Mechanical Works – financial analysis       
7.2.61 Irkut Corporation – overview       
7.2.62 Irkut Corporation – major products and services       
7.2.63 Irkut Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.64 Irkut Corporation – alliances       
7.2.65 Irkut Corporation – recent contract wins       
7.2.66 Irkut Corporation – financial analysis       
7.2.67 Oboronprom Corporation – overview       
7.2.68 Oboronprom Corporation – major products and services       
7.2.69 Oboronprom Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives       
7.2.70 Oboronprom Corporation – alliances       
7.2.71 Oboronprom Corporation – recent contract wins       
7.2.72 Oboronprom Corporation – financial analysis    
 
8 Business Environment and Country Risk       
8.1 Business Confidence       
8.1.1 Market capitalization trend – Russian trading system       
8.1.2 FDI inflows by sector       
8.1.3 Deployment of credit by sector       
8.2 Economic Performance       
8.2.1 GDP at constant prices       
8.2.2 GDP per capita at constant prices       
8.2.3 GDP at current prices       
8.2.4 GDP per capita at current prices       
8.2.5 GDP split by key segments       
8.2.6 Agriculture – agriculture output value at current prices (local currency)       
8.2.7 Agriculture – agriculture output value at current prices (US dollar)       
8.2.8 Agriculture – agriculture output at current prices as percentage of GDP       
8.2.9 Manufacturing – manufacturing output at current prices (local currency)       
8.2.10 Manufacturing – manufacturing output at current prices (US dollar)       
8.2.11 Manufacturing – manufacturing output at current prices as percentage of GDP       
8.2.12 Manufacturing – mining, manufacturing, and utilities at current prices (local currency)       
8.2.13 Manufacturing – mining, manufacturing, utilities at current prices (US dollar)       
8.2.14 Manufacturing – mining, manufacturing, utilities at current prices, as percentage of GDP       
8.2.15 Construction – construction output at current prices, (local currency)       
8.2.16 Construction – construction output at current prices (US dollar)       
8.2.17 Construction – construction output at current prices as percentage of GDP       
8.2.18 Industry – crude steel production       
8.2.19 Industry – crude oil consumption       
8.2.20 Inflation rate       
8.2.21 Fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP       
8.2.22 Trade balance as a percentage of GDP       
8.2.23 Exports as a percentage of GDP       
8.2.24 Imports as a percentage of GDP       
8.2.25 Exports growth       
8.2.26 Imports growth       
8.2.27 External debt as a percentage of GDP       
8.2.28 Exchange rate US$–RUB (annual average)       
8.2.29 Exchange rate US$–RUB (end of fiscal year)       
8.2.30 Debt service ratio       
8.3 Infrastructure Quality and Availability       
8.3.1 Transport – total airports       
8.3.2 Transport – highways and railways       
8.3.3 Transport – passenger vehicle production volume       
8.3.4 Transport – commercial vehicle production volume       
8.3.5 Transport – automotive components export value trend       
8.3.6 Transport – passenger vehicle export volume trend       
8.3.7 Transport – commercial vehicle export volume trend       
8.3.8 Transport – automotive products import value trend       
8.3.9 Transport – Passenger Car Penetration       
8.3.10 Utilities – total installed capacity for electricity generation       
8.3.11 Utilities – installed capacity for conventional thermal electricity generation       
8.3.12 Utilities – electricity production       
8.3.13 Utilities – installed capacity for hydro-electricity generation       
8.3.14 Utilities – installed capacity for renewable electricity generation       
8.3.15 Utilities – electric power consumption       
8.3.16 Utilities – electricity exports       
8.3.17 Utilities – electricity imports       
8.3.18 Healthcare – healthcare expenditure       
8.3.19 Healthcare – healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP       
8.3.20 Healthcare – healthcare expenditure per capita       
8.3.21 Communication – total internet subscribers       
8.3.22 Communication – broadband internet subscribers       
8.3.23 Communication – personal computer penetration       
8.3.24 Communication – mobile phone penetration rate       
8.3.25 Technology – research and development expenditure as a percentage of GDP       
8.4 Labor Force       
8.4.1 Labor force       
8.4.2 Unemployment rate       
8.5 Demographics       
8.5.1 Annual disposable income       
8.5.2 Annual per-capita disposable income       
8.5.3 Annual consumer expenditure on food       
8.5.4 Annual per-capita consumer expenditure on food       
8.5.5 Urban and rural population       
8.5.6 Female as a percentage of population       
8.5.7 Male as a percentage of population       
8.5.8 Mean age of population       
8.5.9 Median age of population       
8.5.10 Population density       
8.5.11 Age distribution – total population       
8.5.12 Age distribution – male population       
8.5.13 Age distribution – female population       
8.5.14 Number of households       
8.6 Political and Social Risk       
8.6.1 Political stability       
8.6.2 Terrorism index       
8.6.3 Transparency Index
     
9 Appendix       

        
LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Russian Defense Expenditure 2005–2010      
Table 2: Russia Defense Expenditure 2011–2016      
Table 3: Russian Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP 2005–2010      
Table 4: Russian Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP 2011–2016      
Table 5: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure 2005–2010      
Table 6: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure 2011–2016      
Table 7: Russian Capital Expenditure 2005–2010      
Table 8: Russian Capital Expenditure 2011–2016      
Table 9: Russian Homeland Security Expenditure 2011–2016      
Table 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2005–2010 vs 2011–2016      
Table 11: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders – 2010 and 2016      
Table 12: ICD Research Terrorism Index      
Table 13: Sukhoi – Major Products & Services      
Table 14: Sukhoi – Alliances      
Table 15: Sukhoi – Recent Contract Wins      
Table 16: Splav – Major Products & Services      
Table 17: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Major Products & Services      
Table 18: Tactical Missiles Corporation – Recent Contract Wins      
Table 19: Almaz-Antey – Major Products & Services      
Table 20: United Aircraft Corporation – Major Products & Services      
Table 21: United Aircraft Corporation – Alliances      
Table 22: KBP Instrument Design Bureau – Major Products & Services      
Table 23: KBP Instrument Design Bureau – recent contract wins      
Table 24: V.A.Degtyarev Plant – Major Products & Services      
Table 25: Kurganmashzavod – Major Products & Services      
Table 26: Kurganmashzavod – Alliances      
Table 27: Uralvagonzavod – Major Products & Services      
Table 28: Uralvagonzavod – Recent Contract Wins      
Table 29:  Izhevsk Mechanical Works – Major Products & Services      
Table 30: Irkut Corporation – Major Products & Services      
Table 31: Irkut Corporation – Alliances      
Table 32: Irkut Corporation – Recent Contract Wins      
Table 33: Oboronprom Corporation – Major Products & Services      
Table 34: Oboronprom Corporation – Alliances      
Table 35: Oboronprom Corporation – Recent Contract Wins      
      
      
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Russian Defense Expenditure 2005–2010      
Figure 2: Russian Defense Expenditure 2011–2016      
Figure 3: Russian Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP 2011–2016      
Figure 4: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure 2005–2010      
Figure 5: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure 2011–2016      
Figure 6: Russian Capital Expenditure 2005–2010      
Figure 7: Russian Capital Expenditure 2011–2016      
Figure 8: Russian Homeland Security 2011–2016      
Figure 9: ICD Research Terrorism Heat Map      
Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2005–2010 vs 2011–2016      
Figure 11: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders – 2010 and 2016      
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP – 2010      
Figure 13: Russian Defense Exports TIV value (US$ Million), 2005–2010      
Figure 14: Russian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2005–2010 and 2010 (TIV values)      
Figure 15: Russian Defense Exports by Region (%), 2005–2010 and 2010      
Figure 16: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis      
Figure 17: United Aircraft Corporation – Revenue Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2008–2010      
Figure 18: United Aircraft Corporation – Operating Profit (RUB Million), 2008–2010      
Figure 19: United Aircraft Corporation – Net Profit Trend Analysis (RUB Million), 2008–2010      
Figure 20: Irkut Corporation – Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2006–2009      
Figure 21: Irkut Corporation – Operating Profit (US$ Million), 2006–2009      
Figure 22: Irkut Corporation – Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2006–2009      
Figure 23: Russian Trading System, Market Capitalization, 2003–2009      
Figure 24: Russia FDI Inflows by Sector (US$ billion), 2003–2009      
Figure 25: Russia Deployment of Credit by Sector (US$ billion), 2003–2009      
Figure 26: Russia GDP Value at Constant Prices, 2003–2015      
Figure 27: Russia GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices, 2003–2015      
Figure 28: Russia GDP at Current Prices, 2003–2015      
Figure 29: Russia GDP Per Capita at Current Prices, 2003–2015      
Figure 30: Russia GDP Split by Key Segments 2003 Vs 2009      
Figure 31: Russia Agriculture Output Value at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003–2015      
Figure 32: Russia Agriculture Output Value at Current Prices (US Dollar), 2003–2015      
Figure 33: Russia Agriculture Output at Current Prices as Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 34: Russia Manufacturing Output at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003–2015      
Figure 35: Russia Manufacturing Output at Current Prices (US Dollar), 2003–2015      
Figure 36: Russia Manufacturing Output at Current Prices as a percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 37: Russia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output, at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003–2015      
Figure 38: Russia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output, at Current Prices (US Dollar), 2003–2015      
Figure 39: Russian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output, at Current Prices as a Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 40: Russian Construction Output, at Current Prices (Local Currency), 2003–2015      
Figure 41: Russian Construction Output, at Current Prices (US Dollar), 2003–2015      
Figure 42: Russia Construction Output at Current Prices as Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 43: Russia Crude Steel Production, 2003–2015      
Figure 44: Russia Crude Oil Consumption, 2003–2015      
Figure 45: Russia Inflation Rate, 2003–2015      
Figure 46: Russia Fiscal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 47: Trade Balance as Percentage of GDP, 2003–2009      
Figure 48: Russia Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 49: Russia Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 50: Russia Exports Growth, 2003–2015      
Figure 51: Russia Imports Growth, 2003–2015      
Figure 52: Russia External Debt as a Percentage of GDP 2003–2009      
Figure 53: Russia Exchange Rate US$-INR (Annual Average), 2003–2009      
Figure 54: Russia Exchange Rate (End of Period), 2003–2009      
Figure 55: Russia Debt Service Ratio (%), 2003–2009      
Figure 56: Russia Airports, 2009      
Figure 57: Russia Total Land Transportation System, 2009      
Figure 58: Russia Passenger Vehicle Production, 2003–2015      
Figure 59: Russia Commercial Vehicle Production, 2003–2015      
Figure 60: Russia Automotive Components Exports, 2003–2015      
Figure 61: Russia Passenger Vehicle Exports Volume Trend, 2003–2015      
Figure 62: Russia Commercial Vehicle Exports Volume Trend, 2003–2015      
Figure 63: Russia Automotive Components Imports, 2003–2015      
Figure 64: Russia Passenger Car Penetration, 2003–2015      
Figure 65: Russia Total Installed Capacity for Electricity Generation, 2003–2015      
Figure 66: Russia Installed Capacity for Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation, 2003–2015      
Figure 67: Russia Electricity Production, 2003–2015      
Figure 68: Russia Installed Capacity for Hydro-electricity Generation, 2003–2015      
Figure 69: Russia Installed Capacity for Renewable Electricity Generation, 2003–2015      
Figure 70: Russia Electric Power Consumption, 2003–2015      
Figure 71: Russia Electricity Exports, 2003–2015      
Figure 72: Russia Electricity Imports, 2003–2015      
Figure 73: Russia Healthcare Expenditure, 2003–2015      
Figure 74: Russia Healthcare Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 75: Russia Per-Capita Healthcare Expenditure, 2003–2015      
Figure 76: Russia Internet Subscribers, 2003–2015      
Figure 77: Russia Broadband Internet Subscribers, 2003–2015      
Figure 78: Russia Personal Computer Usage (per 100 people), 2003–2015      
Figure 79: Russia Mobile Phone Penetration, 2003–2015      
Figure 80: Russia R&D Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2003–2015      
Figure 81: Russia Size of Labor Force (15–59 age group), 2003–2015      
Figure 82: Russia Unemployment Rate, 2003–2015      
Figure 83: Russia Annual Disposable Income, 2003–2015      
Figure 84: Russia Annual Per Capita Disposable Income, 2003–2015      
Figure 85: Russia Consumer Expenditure on Food, 2003–2015      
Figure 86: Russia Annual Per Capita Consumer Expenditure on Food, 2003–2015      
Figure 87: Russia Urban and Rural Population, 2003–2015      
Figure 88: Russia Female as a Percentage of Population, 2003–2015      
Figure 89: Russia Males as a Percentage of Population, 2003–2015      
Figure 90: Russia Mean Age of Population, 2003–2015      
Figure 91: Russia Median Age of Population, 2003–2015      
Figure 92: Russia Population Density, 2003–2015      
Figure 93: Russia Age-wise Population Distribution, 2003–2015      
Figure 94: Russia Age-wise Male Population Distribution, 2003–2015      
Figure 95: Russia Age-wise Female Population Distribution, 2003–2015      
Figure 96: Russia Number of Households, 2003–2015      
Figure 97: Global Terrorism Heat Map, 2009      
Figure 98: Russia Transparency Index, 2003–2009