High value market remains an attractive diversification opportunity for semiconductor manufacturing players

Growth rate is still high, but the market shows early signs of maturity
Many “WLP” technologies are now cruising at a very high altitude. This is serious business: over 23 billion units packaged with ‘fan-in’ as we may call it are expected to sell and be mounted in smartphones, tablet PCs or other mobile devices in 2011. For size reduction, together with low cost, remains the main driver for adoption of this technology. If ‘fan-in’ WLCSP already reached high penetration rates in mobile applications for connectivity (Bluetooth+WLAN+FM combos, GPS) and analog integrated circuits (DC/DC converters, LDO’s, ESD/EMI protection devices), it is still growing fast for some other IC types as well as in MEMS and sensors. We are not at a time to claim that “Wafer Level Packaging” is taking off any longer.

Reaching over 2 million 300mm equivalent ‘fan-in’ WLCSP wafers in 2011 for a total market size of b$1.7
Of course, one may argue that these are tiny devices. Well, if this is true for many of them, it appears that the average size of a ‘fan-in’ WLCSP device tended to increase over the past 2 years, with many “connectivity” devices reaching sizes of more than 30mm². We estimate that in 2011, more than 2.3 million 300mm equivalent ‘fan-in’ WLCSP wafers will be processed for the first time. All steps compounded (wafer level, die level and test), we estimate that the 2011 market value of ‘fan-in’ WLCSP is close to B$ 1.7.

Prices keep on decreasing, but the market growth rate is expected to stay high at 12% over the 2010-2016 time period
Although costs and prices still decrease as the technology and its market mature, the market value growth rate for the 2010-2016 timeframe is still expected around 12%, 4 points higher than semiconductor packaging in general. However, this is lower than the 22% 2008-2013 growth rate we had computed for the same market 2 years ago. Costs kept on decreasing thanks to the end of the capacity shortage on 12-inch diameter wafers and thanks to standardizing technologies with simplified process flows. And despite technologies improved to the point that the maximum possible die size could be extended, it’s not all clear skies for ‘fan-in’ WLCSP. With the continuous fallout of Nokia on the handsets market, this is WLCSP’s historical biggest supporter which loses influence, and some tier two handset manufacturers still seem reluctant to broadly adopt the technology.

Changing paradigms: future growth will be driven by different devices, based on different technologies

Looming over the horizon is the threat of the CMOS 28nm node technology with such a high IO density that some package with a “fan-out area” will be needed anyhow. Hopefully, A significant part of the ‘fan-in’ WLCSP market still relies on the analogue ICs on the one hand, using older technologies, and on MEMS and sensors (particularly CMOS image sensors) on the other hand. This latter device type is expected to be a high potential growth application for fan-in WLCSP in the coming 5 years: we expect a tremendous growth of up to 25% for MEMS and sensors with a WLCSP finishing over the next 5 years. All in all, ‘fan-in’ WLCSP shows the first early signs of a maturing market. It still grows faster than the average semiconductor packaging market mainly thanks to the fast growth rates of smartphones and tablet PCs in which WLCSP considerably helps save space and reduce costs.

High margins are attracting new player types with diverse business models

The supply chain is still primarily led by OSATs and IDMs, But the original “Wafer bumping houses” and “wafer packaging houses” take a significant share of the market too. All the major OSATs invested in 300mm WLCSP capacity over the past 2 years. TSMC recently claimed their will to step in this market too, possibly opening the way to other foundries.

In this WLCSP 2011 report, you will find detailed technical and market status and forecasts on WLCSP technologies and applications. Market forecasts and growth rates are provided based on device units and wafers for each market segment over the 2010-2016 timeframe. Market value forecasts in dollars are given over the same period of time. Based on our “bottom-up” analysis of the WLP fabs, the report displays the list and ranking of the WLCSP front-end (RDL, UBM and balling) players as of end of 2010, including the detailed respective wafer production capacities by player and wafer type.
Our unique “bottom-up meets top-down analysis” cross checks our forecasting models application by application, and player by player, delivering a high definition picture of the status of the ‘fan-in’ WLCSP market, with, for example, the level of loading of the major WLCSP fabs by application and by IC design company.
Numerous application examples are given, recent technical developments on materials, architectures and test are detailed, and industry-wide technology roadmaps are presented. In addition, the report provides for the analysis of the supply chain and a detailed cost analysis section with models and examples.

Key features of the report

• Detailed account of all the application fields of WLCSP (examples DC/DC converters and LDO’s, connectivity ‘WLAN+Bluetooth+FM’ combos, GPS, audio codecs and amplifiers, MEMS, CMOS image sensors …)
• Market trends and figures in Munits, M$, and wafer size equivalent with breakdown by application.
• Wafer price ranges of WLCSP contract assembly by wafer size and breakdown by main process step (wafer level, die level and test)
• Complete technologies and material tool-box analysis, covering ‘fan-in’ WLCSP as well as 3DWLCSP of MEMS devices and sensors.
• Market Shares

Who should buy this report?

• Integrated semiconductor Device Manufacturers and fabless semiconductor companies
  • Get the list of the top WLCSP service providers.
  • Benchmark the competition activity and choose the right package for your future applications
• Assembly and Test Service companies and wafer bumping houses
  • Assess your technical and market position in the WLCSP service market.
  • Get the list of the main WLCSP users
  • Get acquainted with upcoming technologies and their potential
  • Plan ahead needed investments for capacity
• Electronic module makers and Original Equipment Makers
  • Evaluate the benefits of using these new technologies in your end system.
  • Monitor new WLCSP application trends and package developments
• Equipment and Material manufacturers
  • Identify new business opportunities and prospects
  • Understand the differentiated value of your products and technologies in this market
• IC and MEMS Foundries
  • Spot new opportunities and define diversification strategies

Companies cited in the report
Accretech, advantest, agilent technologies, Alphaprobes, Amkor, AMS, Anadigics, Analog Devices, AnalogicTech, Apple, Applied Materials, Asahi Kasei (AKM), ASE, Audience, Avago Technologies, Bosch, Broadcom, Cascade Microtech, Casio Micronics, China WLCSP, Cirrus Logic, CSR, Cypress, Delphi, Dialog Semiconductors, Discera, DNP, Dow, Dupont, electroglas, Ellipsiz, EPWorks, Fairchild, FCI, Form factor, Fraunhofer IZM, Freescale, Fujikura, Fujitsu, Google, Hamamatsu, Hynix, ICI, Idex, IDT, IDT, IME, imec, Infineon, International Rectifier, Intersil, Invensense, JCAP, JEM, JSR Micro, LAM Research, LB Semicon, Lenovo, LETI, Linear Technology, LTX/Credence, Marvell, Maxim, Maxlinear, Microchip, Micron, Micronics, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mosart, Motorola, Murata, National Semiconductors, Nemotek, Nepes, Nexx, Nippon Steel, Materials, Nokia, NXP, OKI, Okmetic, Omnivision, On semiconductor, Optopac, PacTech, Panasonic, Panasonic, PowerTech (PTI), Qualcomm, Renesas, Rhom, RIM (Blackberry), Samsung, Sanyo, Sensonor, Sharp, Shibasoku, Shin-Etsu, Shinko, Silecs, Silex, Siltech, SiTime, SMSC, Sony, SPIL, SPTS, StatsChipPac, STEricsson, STMicroelectronics, Sumitomo, Süss Microtec, TDK-Epcos, technoprobe, TEL, Teledyne/Dalsa, teradyne, TeraMikros, TeraProbe, Texas Instruments, Toray, Toshiba Semiconductors, Tronics, TSMC, UMC, Unisem, verigy, Visera, VTI, Wentworth laboratories, Wolfson Microelectronics, Xintec, Yamaha, Yokogawa

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

SCOPE OF THE REPORT & DEFINITIONS

    Definitions of wafer scale packaging, wafer level packaging & wafer level chip scale packaging
    Scope of the report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP MARKET FORECASTS

    Top-down analysis & 2010-2016 unit, wafer and market forecast
    Bottom-up analysis and 2010 production capacity and market shares
    Detailed view of WLCSP's IC design wins on the market
    IC Players capacity for each WLCSP application

‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP INFRASTRUCTURE & SUPPLY CHAIN

    Supply chain case of fan-in WLCSP
    Supply chain case of 3D WLCSP
    Business model examples

‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP TECHNOLOGIES

    RDL, UBM and balling
    Test of ‘fan-in’ WLCSP

COST OF ‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP

    ‘fan-in’ WLCSP cost structure
    2008-2016 ‘fan-in’ WLCSP cost roadmap by main steps
    Cost comparisons of different package platforms for a 64 IO device

‘FAN-IN’ WLCSP APPLICATION FOCUS

    WLCSP ICs in handsets, tablet PCs and MP3
    WLCSP ICs for computing
    WLCSP for ICs in medical, automotive & space applications
    WLCSP of CMOS image sensors
    WLCSP of MEMS devices

CONCLUSION & PERSPECTIVES

APPENDIX


LIST OF FIGURES:

    ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP Market Value Forecast ($M)
    2010 ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP Market Value ($M)
    Split by cost-of-ownership segments
    Examples of fan-in WLCSP penetration in real products
    2010-2016 ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP unit forecast
    2010-2016 ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP wafer forecast
    10 top 30 IC design companies demand for WLCSP services
    WLCSP design wins
    2010 3D WLCSP & WLCSP wafer shipment
    WLCSP + 3D WLCSP regional capacities
    2010 WLCSP & 3D WLCSP wafer capacities
    Matching 2010 bottom up and top down analysis
    fan-in' WLCSP manufacturing infrastructure
    2010 fan-in WLCSP wafer capacity (3D WLCSP excluded)
    Players by business Model in the WLCSP space
    Supply Chain for WLCSP Manufacturing
    3D WLCSP manufacturing infrastructure
    2010 fan-in 3D WLCSP wafer capacity - by players
    Players by business Model in the 3D WLCSP space
    Supply Chain for 3D WLCSP Manufacturing
    2010 WLCSP / 3D WLCSP wafer capacities - Breakdown by business model
    An example of “Packaging House” Business Model for WLCSP
    WLCSP manufacturing strategy - Supply Chain / Relationships
    Packaging subcon's main loading partners for WLCSP (TRIAL)
    Typical Fan-in WL CSP process flow
    Example of overall 3D WLP process flow
    WLCSP polymers main properties
    WLCSP polymers advantages and drawbacks
    Mapping of WLCSP UBM/passivation materials
    WLCSP challenges and solutions
    Main WLCSP roadmap Trends
    ‘Fan-in’ WLCSP contract price Forecasts
    ‘Fan-in’ WLP Cost Model
    ‘Fan-in’ WLP Device Categories