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2013 Connector Industry Forecast

Bishop and Associates, Date of Publication: Jan 15, 2013


 

US$4,550.00

BAF2012

2013 Connector Industry Forecast provides an in-depth, and detailed forecast of the worldwide connector industry.

In addition to the detailed forecasts for each region of the world (North America, Europe, Japan, China, Asia Pacific, and ROW), an industry overview is included which provides current market trends, industry book-to-bill ratios, and outlook narrative.

The worldwide and regional forecasts include:

Computers & Peripherals
Mobile Computers
Desktops
Servers
Storage Equipment
Input/Output Equipment
Communication LAN Devices
Other Computer Equipment
 
Business/Office Equipment
Retail/POS Equipment
Imaging Systems
Other Business/Office Equipment
 
Instrumentation
Automatic Test Equipment
Analytical/Scientific Instruments
Other Instrumentation
 
Medical Equipment
Diagnostic & Imaging Equipment
Therapeutic Equipment
Other Medical Equipment
 
Industrial
Heavy Equipment
Industrial Auto & Process Control
Building & Civil Engineering
Energy Markets
Machine Tools, Machinery & Robotics
Other Equipment
 
Automotive
Body Wiring & Power Distribution
Powertrain
Comfort, Convenience & Entertainment
Navigation & Instrumentation
Safety & Security
 
Transportation (non-auto)
Commercial Vehicles
RV's & Power Sports
Rail
A., M., Construction, and Farm and Garden
 
Military/Aerospace
 
Telecom/Datacom
Carrier Network
Enterprise Network
Wireless Infrastructure
Subscriber Equipment
Other Telecommunications
 
Consumer
Personal/Portable Consumer
Home Video Equipment
Home Audio Equipment
Consumer White Goods
Other Consumer
 
Other Equipment
 

Historical Sales Performance

Since 1980 the connector industry has experienced four growth business cycles, meaning consecutive years of increases in year-over-year sales. The average growth business cycle in the connector industry is six years. The longest (years without a decline in sales) is eight years (1993-2000).

The downturn of 2011/2012 has somewhat broken the industry mold. The period of growth lasted only 23 months before sales began declining in 4Q11. The downturn, which was over in October 2012, lasted only 12 months. The decline was only -2.6% which is the smallest measured since 1980.

Since 1980, we have achieved twenty-six years of sales increases and five years of sales declines. The average growth cycle lasts six years, with four years being the shortest growth cycle and eight years the longest. The industry’s thirty-one year compound annual growth (CAGR) is +5.7%. Only once in thirty-one years have we had two consecutive years of declining sales.

In the three industry declines prior to 2001, the years of growth in between the downturns was four, six, and eight years. From the end of the 2001/2 downturn to the beginning of the 2008/9 downturn was 75 months (6.3 years). From the end of the 2008/9 downturn to the beginning of the 2011/12 downturn was 23 months (1.9 years). The decreasing cycle rate may be the result of the increasing inter-dependencies of the world’s economies and our 24/7 processing of the news of all types.

Historically we are at the beginning of a fifth growth business cycle that will last another five years on average. Although nothing is certain, it is likely that the next downturn is three or more years down the road, given no unforeseen major calamities. The economies of the world and their governments have gone (and are going) through a major fiscal correction, which should lead to relatively stable times where the growth rates will, in all likelihood, be more modest than they have been after past industry downturns.

2012 Outlook

We are forecasting 2013 sales to grow +4.2%. This projection for moderate growth is in line with GDP growth projections by the IMF for the various regions of the world.

There are some headwinds facing the industry in 2013.

  • The economic malaise in Europe is still prevailing. The austerity budgets in Europe to fix the deficit spending have generally slowed several economies and thrown others into a shallow recession. Although the European Union is working together to sort through the issues, it is uncertain how long it will take to re-establish healthy economic growth in the region.
  • Although modest GDP growth has been achieved in the United States for the last 11 quarters, it has not been sufficient to bring total unemployment down to pre-recession numbers and consumer confidence has been wavering. If federal budget reductions and tax reform plans drag out through the year, the economic growth will be impacted adversely.
  • China’s GDP growth has been slowing for the last 10 quarters from 11.9% YOY to 7.4% YOY in 3Q12. Additional problems in Europe or the United States would reduce their growth further.
  • China’s growth in their internal markets has been fueled by rising wages and easily available credit. The Chinese consumers may have taken on to much credit which could lead to reduced consumption if the cost of credit increases or the source of income is lost.
  • Continued unrest in the Middle East could destabilize worldwide financial markets and economies.

The Bottom Line

Industry sales growth in the range of +4.2% is a likely result for 2013. Some sales growth is almost certain given the easy comparison to 2012 and the relative stability (for good or bad) of the current economic/political status of the world. For the same reasons, growth significantly above this level is unlikely as the events needed to drive the higher growth would already need to have begun unfolding to significantly impact the year.

The only opportunity for a significant downside is the unforeseen event, either manmade or from nature, that could substantially disrupt the worldwide economy.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 – Forecast Overview

    Overview
    Historical Sales Performance
    2012 Outlook
    2012 Connector Forecast By Region
    2012 Forecast By Equipment Sector
    Five-Year Outlook (2012-2017)
    Market Outlook and Comments
    Computers-Peripherals Sector
    The Market
    Focus on Mobile – The iPAD
    Dynamics Affecting Increased Mobile System Use
    The Notebook Market
    Notebook OEM/EMS Industry 2Q12 Units
    Factors Affecting Purchase of Tablets or PCs
    Notebook Connector Content
    Connector Market for Notebook/UltraBook and MacBook
    World Unit Vol. Forecast Notebooks/UltraBooks/Convertibles 2010-16
    2012 World Computer and Peripheral Connector Forecast – Market Share by Region
    Business/Office Equipment Sector
    Introduction
    Mass-Merchant Office Equipment Products
    Detailed List of Office Equipment
    Fortune Magazine Top Companies In Office Equipment from 2011
    Market Diversity
    1Q09 Printer, Copier and Multi-Function Market by Supplier in Units
    Key Points in This Market
    Connector Applications
    Some Current Developments
    Future
    2012 World Business/Office Equipment Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Instrumentation Sector
    Global Market Conditions
    Market and Technology Trends
    ATE/Semiconductor Test
    Analytical and Scientific Instruments
    Other Instruments
    Regional View
    North America
    Europe
    Japan
    China
    Asia Pacific
    ROW
    2012 World Instrumentation Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Medical Equipment Sector
    Global Market Conditions
    Diagnostic and Imaging Equipment
    Therapeutic Equipment
    Other Medical Equipment
    Market and Technology Trends
    Miniaturization
    Consumerizing Medical Devices
    Wireless Healthcare Infrastructure
    Telehealth and the Cloud
    Emerging Markets
    Medical Market Outlook
    Regional View
    North America
    Europe
    Japan
    China
    Asia Pacific
    ROW
    2012 World Medical Connector Forecast – Market Share by Region
    Industrial Equipment Sector
    Market Definitions
    Main Market Segments
    Detailed Market Segments
    World View
    YoY Industrial Production Growth by Region 2012
    Industrial Production by Country 2001-2010
    World Industrial Production 3 Months Average over Previous 3 Months 2000 – 2012
    World Industrial Production 3 Months Average over Same 3 Months Previous Year 2001 – 2010
    GDP Growth and Forecast by Country-Region 2011-2013
    US GDP Growth Fiscal Cliff Scenario’s
    Industrial Sales Top 3 Connector Manufacturers
    Industrial Sales Top 3 Connector Manufacturers 3Q2012
    Regional View
    North America
    US Industrial Production Growth % Year over Year 2011 – 2012
    Europe
    Industrial Market for Connectors by Region – 2011 and 2012
    Machine Tools Orders and Shipments Germany 2008 – September 2012
    Euro Zone Industrial Production Growth % Year-over-Year 2011 – 2012
    Japan
    Monthly Machine Tools Orders Japan 2012 – Year-on-Year Comparison
    Japanese Industrial Production Growth % Year-over-Year 2011 – 2012
    China
    Chinese Industrial Production Growth % Year-over-Year 2011 – 2012
    Asia Pacific
    ROW
    Industrial Market for Connectors – Market Outlook 2012-2017
    2012-2017 CAGR by Region for the Industrial Market for Connectors
    2012 World Industrial Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Automotive Sector
    World Automotive Connector Market
    2012 Total World Automotive Connector Sales versus All Other Connector Sales
    2017 Total World Automotive Connector Sales versus All Other Connector Sales
    Automotive Connector Sales by Region
    2012 and 2017 Automotive Connector Sales by Region
    Automotive Connector Sales by Vehicle Electrical System
    Summary
    Some Summary Thoughts
    2012 World Automotive Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Transportation – Non Automotive Sector
    Commercial Aviation
    General Aviation Aircraft Manufactured Worldwide: 3 Quarters 2012
    Rail
    Commercial Vehicles
    2012 World Transportation – Non Automotive Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Military/Aerospace Sector
    Global Market Conditions
    Market Outlook
    Regional View
    North America
    Europe
    Japan
    China
    Asia-Pacific
    ROW
    2012 World Military/Aerospace Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Telecom Equipment Sector
    World View
    Telecom/Datacom Connector Sales 2011 – 2016
    Internet Users
    Internet Traffic, Petrabytes per Month
    Technology and Market Trends
    Telecom/Datacom Connector Sales by Equipment Category 2011 to 2016 Comparison
    Regional View
    Telecom/Datacom Connector Sales by Region of the World 2011 to 2016 Comparison
    North America
    Europe
    Japan
    China
    Asia Pacific
    ROW
    2012 World Telecom/Datacom Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
    Consumer Electronics Sector
    Market Performance
    Insourcing of CE Products
    CE Industry Review
    Smartphone Sales 2Q12
    Summary
    2012 World Consumer Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region

Chapter 2 – World Connector Forecast

    World Connector Forecast
    World Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Dollar Change
    World Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Percent Change
    World Connector Market Forecast by Region
    Year-to-Year Change by Region
    Top Six End-Use Equipment Categories
    World End-Use Equipment Forecast - Summary
    2011-2012 Percent Change & Five-Year CAGR
    2012 & 2017 Market Share by Equipment Sector
    World End-Use Equipment Forecast - Detail
    Computers & Peripherals
    Mobile Computers
    Desktops
    Servers
    Storage Equipment
    Input/Output Equipment
    Communication LAN Devices
    Other Computer Equipment
    Business/Office Equipment
    Retail/POS Equipment
    Imaging Systems
    Other Office Equipment
    Instrumentation
    Automatic Test Equipment
    Analytical & Scientific Instruments
    Other Instruments
    Medical
    Diagnostic & Imaging Equipment
    Therapeutic Equipment
    Other Medical Equipment
    Industrial
    Heavy Equipment
    Industrial Automation & Process Control
    Building & Civil Engineering
    Energy Markets
    Machine Tools, Machinery & Robotics
    Other Equipment
    Automotive
    Body Wiring & Power Distribution
    Powertrain
    Comfort, Convenience & Entertainment
    Navigation & Instrumentation
    Safety & Security
    Transportation
    Medium & Heavy Trucks & Busses
    Motorcycles/Off-Road & Recreational Vehicles
    Rail
    Comm./General Aircraft, Rail & Marine Electronics
    Military
    Telecom/Datacom
    Carrier Network
    Enterprise Network
    Mobile & Wireless
    Wireless Infrastructure
    Subscriber Equipment
    Cable-Equipment-Infrastructure
    Other Telecommunications
    Consumer
    Personal/Portable Consumer Electronics
    Home Video Equipment
    Home Audio Equipment
    Consumer White Goods
    Other Consumer
    Other Equipment
    World End-Use Equipment Forecast by Region
    Computers & Peripherals
    Business/Retail/Education Equipment
    Instrumentation Equipment
    Medical Equipment
    Industrial Equipment
    Automotive
    Transportation Equipment
    Military/Aerospace Equipment
    Telecom/Datacom Equipment
    Consumer Equipment
    Other Equipment

Chapter 3 – North American Connector Forecast

    North American Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Dollar Change
    North American Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Percent Change
    Top Six End-Use Equipment Categories
    North American End-Use Equipment Forecast - Summary
    2011-2012 Percent Change & 2012-2017 Five-Year CAGR
    2012 & 2017 Market Share by Equipment Sector
    North American End-Use Equipment Forecast - Detail
    Computers & Peripherals
    Mobile Computers
    Desktops
    Servers
    Storage Equipment
    Input/Output Equipment
    Communication LAN Devices
    Other Computer Equipment
    Business/Office Equipment
    Retail/POS Equipment
    Imaging Systems
    Other Office Equipment
    Instrumentation
    Automatic Test Equipment
    Analytical & Scientific Instruments
    Other Instruments
    Medical
    Diagnostic & Imaging Equipment
    Therapeutic Equipment
    Other Medical Equipment
    Industrial
    Heavy Equipment
    Industrial Automation & Process Control
    Building & Civil Engineering
    Energy Markets
    Machine Tools, Machinery & Robotics
    Other Equipment
    Automotive
    Body Wiring & Power Distribution
    Powertrain
    Comfort, Convenience & Entertainment
    Navigation & Instrumentation
    Safety & Security
    Transportation
    Medium & Heavy Trucks & Busses
    Motorcycles/Off-Road & Recreational Vehicles
    Rail
    Comm./General Aircraft, Rail & Marine Electronics
    Military
    Telecom/Datacom
    Carrier Network
    Enterprise Network
    Mobile & Wireless
    Wireless Infrastructure
    Subscriber Equipment
    Cable-Equipment-Infrastructure
    Other Telecommunications
    Consumer
    Personal/Portable Consumer Electronics
    Home Video Equipment
    Home Audio Equipment
    Consumer White Goods
    Other Consumer
    Other Equipment

Chapters 4 Thru 8 Provide The Same Detail Level as Chapter 3

    Chapter 4 – European Connector Forecast
    Chapter 5 – Japanese Connector Forecast
    Chapter 6 – Chinese Connector Forecast
    Chapter 7 – Asia Pacific Connector Forecast
    Chapter 8 – ROW Connector Forecast


Jan 15, 2013
Print Copy and CD-ROM

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