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2013 Connector Industry Forecast provides an in-depth, and detailed forecast of the worldwide connector industry.
In addition to the detailed forecasts for each region of the world (North America, Europe, Japan, China, Asia Pacific, and ROW), an industry overview is included which provides current market trends, industry book-to-bill ratios, and outlook narrative.
The worldwide and regional forecasts include:
Computers & Peripherals
Mobile Computers
Desktops
Servers
Storage Equipment
Input/Output Equipment
Communication LAN Devices
Other Computer Equipment
Business/Office Equipment
Retail/POS Equipment
Imaging Systems
Other Business/Office Equipment
Instrumentation
Automatic Test Equipment
Analytical/Scientific Instruments
Other Instrumentation
Medical Equipment
Diagnostic & Imaging Equipment
Therapeutic Equipment
Other Medical Equipment
Industrial
Heavy Equipment
Industrial Auto & Process Control
Building & Civil Engineering
Energy Markets
Machine Tools, Machinery & Robotics
Other Equipment
Automotive
Body Wiring & Power Distribution
Powertrain
Comfort, Convenience & Entertainment
Navigation & Instrumentation
Safety & Security
Transportation (non-auto)
Commercial Vehicles
RV's & Power Sports
Rail
A., M., Construction, and Farm and Garden
Military/Aerospace
Telecom/Datacom
Carrier Network
Enterprise Network
Wireless Infrastructure
Subscriber Equipment
Other Telecommunications
Consumer
Personal/Portable Consumer
Home Video Equipment
Home Audio Equipment
Consumer White Goods
Other Consumer
Other Equipment
Historical Sales Performance
Since 1980 the connector industry has experienced four growth business cycles, meaning consecutive years of increases in year-over-year sales. The average growth business cycle in the connector industry is six years. The longest (years without a decline in sales) is eight years (1993-2000).
The downturn of 2011/2012 has somewhat broken the industry mold. The period of growth lasted only 23 months before sales began declining in 4Q11. The downturn, which was over in October 2012, lasted only 12 months. The decline was only -2.6% which is the smallest measured since 1980.
Since 1980, we have achieved twenty-six years of sales increases and five years of sales declines. The average growth cycle lasts six years, with four years being the shortest growth cycle and eight years the longest. The industry’s thirty-one year compound annual growth (CAGR) is +5.7%. Only once in thirty-one years have we had two consecutive years of declining sales.
In the three industry declines prior to 2001, the years of growth in between the downturns was four, six, and eight years. From the end of the 2001/2 downturn to the beginning of the 2008/9 downturn was 75 months (6.3 years). From the end of the 2008/9 downturn to the beginning of the 2011/12 downturn was 23 months (1.9 years). The decreasing cycle rate may be the result of the increasing inter-dependencies of the world’s economies and our 24/7 processing of the news of all types.
Historically we are at the beginning of a fifth growth business cycle that will last another five years on average. Although nothing is certain, it is likely that the next downturn is three or more years down the road, given no unforeseen major calamities. The economies of the world and their governments have gone (and are going) through a major fiscal correction, which should lead to relatively stable times where the growth rates will, in all likelihood, be more modest than they have been after past industry downturns.
2012 Outlook
We are forecasting 2013 sales to grow +4.2%. This projection for moderate growth is in line with GDP growth projections by the IMF for the various regions of the world.
There are some headwinds facing the industry in 2013.
- The economic malaise in Europe is still prevailing. The austerity budgets in Europe to fix the deficit spending have generally slowed several economies and thrown others into a shallow recession. Although the European Union is working together to sort through the issues, it is uncertain how long it will take to re-establish healthy economic growth in the region.
- Although modest GDP growth has been achieved in the United States for the last 11 quarters, it has not been sufficient to bring total unemployment down to pre-recession numbers and consumer confidence has been wavering. If federal budget reductions and tax reform plans drag out through the year, the economic growth will be impacted adversely.
- China’s GDP growth has been slowing for the last 10 quarters from 11.9% YOY to 7.4% YOY in 3Q12. Additional problems in Europe or the United States would reduce their growth further.
- China’s growth in their internal markets has been fueled by rising wages and easily available credit. The Chinese consumers may have taken on to much credit which could lead to reduced consumption if the cost of credit increases or the source of income is lost.
- Continued unrest in the Middle East could destabilize worldwide financial markets and economies.
The Bottom Line
Industry sales growth in the range of +4.2% is a likely result for 2013. Some sales growth is almost certain given the easy comparison to 2012 and the relative stability (for good or bad) of the current economic/political status of the world. For the same reasons, growth significantly above this level is unlikely as the events needed to drive the higher growth would already need to have begun unfolding to significantly impact the year.
The only opportunity for a significant downside is the unforeseen event, either manmade or from nature, that could substantially disrupt the worldwide economy.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 – Forecast Overview
Overview
Historical Sales Performance
2012 Outlook
2012 Connector Forecast By Region
2012 Forecast By Equipment Sector
Five-Year Outlook (2012-2017)
Market Outlook and Comments
Computers-Peripherals Sector
The Market
Focus on Mobile – The iPAD
Dynamics Affecting Increased Mobile System Use
The Notebook Market
Notebook OEM/EMS Industry 2Q12 Units
Factors Affecting Purchase of Tablets or PCs
Notebook Connector Content
Connector Market for Notebook/UltraBook and MacBook
World Unit Vol. Forecast Notebooks/UltraBooks/Convertibles 2010-16
2012 World Computer and Peripheral Connector Forecast – Market Share by Region
Business/Office Equipment Sector
Introduction
Mass-Merchant Office Equipment Products
Detailed List of Office Equipment
Fortune Magazine Top Companies In Office Equipment from 2011
Market Diversity
1Q09 Printer, Copier and Multi-Function Market by Supplier in Units
Key Points in This Market
Connector Applications
Some Current Developments
Future
2012 World Business/Office Equipment Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Instrumentation Sector
Global Market Conditions
Market and Technology Trends
ATE/Semiconductor Test
Analytical and Scientific Instruments
Other Instruments
Regional View
North America
Europe
Japan
China
Asia Pacific
ROW
2012 World Instrumentation Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Medical Equipment Sector
Global Market Conditions
Diagnostic and Imaging Equipment
Therapeutic Equipment
Other Medical Equipment
Market and Technology Trends
Miniaturization
Consumerizing Medical Devices
Wireless Healthcare Infrastructure
Telehealth and the Cloud
Emerging Markets
Medical Market Outlook
Regional View
North America
Europe
Japan
China
Asia Pacific
ROW
2012 World Medical Connector Forecast – Market Share by Region
Industrial Equipment Sector
Market Definitions
Main Market Segments
Detailed Market Segments
World View
YoY Industrial Production Growth by Region 2012
Industrial Production by Country 2001-2010
World Industrial Production 3 Months Average over Previous 3 Months 2000 – 2012
World Industrial Production 3 Months Average over Same 3 Months Previous Year 2001 – 2010
GDP Growth and Forecast by Country-Region 2011-2013
US GDP Growth Fiscal Cliff Scenario’s
Industrial Sales Top 3 Connector Manufacturers
Industrial Sales Top 3 Connector Manufacturers 3Q2012
Regional View
North America
US Industrial Production Growth % Year over Year 2011 – 2012
Europe
Industrial Market for Connectors by Region – 2011 and 2012
Machine Tools Orders and Shipments Germany 2008 – September 2012
Euro Zone Industrial Production Growth % Year-over-Year 2011 – 2012
Japan
Monthly Machine Tools Orders Japan 2012 – Year-on-Year Comparison
Japanese Industrial Production Growth % Year-over-Year 2011 – 2012
China
Chinese Industrial Production Growth % Year-over-Year 2011 – 2012
Asia Pacific
ROW
Industrial Market for Connectors – Market Outlook 2012-2017
2012-2017 CAGR by Region for the Industrial Market for Connectors
2012 World Industrial Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Automotive Sector
World Automotive Connector Market
2012 Total World Automotive Connector Sales versus All Other Connector Sales
2017 Total World Automotive Connector Sales versus All Other Connector Sales
Automotive Connector Sales by Region
2012 and 2017 Automotive Connector Sales by Region
Automotive Connector Sales by Vehicle Electrical System
Summary
Some Summary Thoughts
2012 World Automotive Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Transportation – Non Automotive Sector
Commercial Aviation
General Aviation Aircraft Manufactured Worldwide: 3 Quarters 2012
Rail
Commercial Vehicles
2012 World Transportation – Non Automotive Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Military/Aerospace Sector
Global Market Conditions
Market Outlook
Regional View
North America
Europe
Japan
China
Asia-Pacific
ROW
2012 World Military/Aerospace Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Telecom Equipment Sector
World View
Telecom/Datacom Connector Sales 2011 – 2016
Internet Users
Internet Traffic, Petrabytes per Month
Technology and Market Trends
Telecom/Datacom Connector Sales by Equipment Category 2011 to 2016 Comparison
Regional View
Telecom/Datacom Connector Sales by Region of the World 2011 to 2016 Comparison
North America
Europe
Japan
China
Asia Pacific
ROW
2012 World Telecom/Datacom Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Consumer Electronics Sector
Market Performance
Insourcing of CE Products
CE Industry Review
Smartphone Sales 2Q12
Summary
2012 World Consumer Connector Forecast - Market Share by Region
Chapter 2 – World Connector Forecast
World Connector Forecast
World Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Dollar Change
World Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Percent Change
World Connector Market Forecast by Region
Year-to-Year Change by Region
Top Six End-Use Equipment Categories
World End-Use Equipment Forecast - Summary
2011-2012 Percent Change & Five-Year CAGR
2012 & 2017 Market Share by Equipment Sector
World End-Use Equipment Forecast - Detail
Computers & Peripherals
Mobile Computers
Desktops
Servers
Storage Equipment
Input/Output Equipment
Communication LAN Devices
Other Computer Equipment
Business/Office Equipment
Retail/POS Equipment
Imaging Systems
Other Office Equipment
Instrumentation
Automatic Test Equipment
Analytical & Scientific Instruments
Other Instruments
Medical
Diagnostic & Imaging Equipment
Therapeutic Equipment
Other Medical Equipment
Industrial
Heavy Equipment
Industrial Automation & Process Control
Building & Civil Engineering
Energy Markets
Machine Tools, Machinery & Robotics
Other Equipment
Automotive
Body Wiring & Power Distribution
Powertrain
Comfort, Convenience & Entertainment
Navigation & Instrumentation
Safety & Security
Transportation
Medium & Heavy Trucks & Busses
Motorcycles/Off-Road & Recreational Vehicles
Rail
Comm./General Aircraft, Rail & Marine Electronics
Military
Telecom/Datacom
Carrier Network
Enterprise Network
Mobile & Wireless
Wireless Infrastructure
Subscriber Equipment
Cable-Equipment-Infrastructure
Other Telecommunications
Consumer
Personal/Portable Consumer Electronics
Home Video Equipment
Home Audio Equipment
Consumer White Goods
Other Consumer
Other Equipment
World End-Use Equipment Forecast by Region
Computers & Peripherals
Business/Retail/Education Equipment
Instrumentation Equipment
Medical Equipment
Industrial Equipment
Automotive
Transportation Equipment
Military/Aerospace Equipment
Telecom/Datacom Equipment
Consumer Equipment
Other Equipment
Chapter 3 – North American Connector Forecast
North American Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Dollar Change
North American Connector Market Forecast – Year-to-Year Percent Change
Top Six End-Use Equipment Categories
North American End-Use Equipment Forecast - Summary
2011-2012 Percent Change & 2012-2017 Five-Year CAGR
2012 & 2017 Market Share by Equipment Sector
North American End-Use Equipment Forecast - Detail
Computers & Peripherals
Mobile Computers
Desktops
Servers
Storage Equipment
Input/Output Equipment
Communication LAN Devices
Other Computer Equipment
Business/Office Equipment
Retail/POS Equipment
Imaging Systems
Other Office Equipment
Instrumentation
Automatic Test Equipment
Analytical & Scientific Instruments
Other Instruments
Medical
Diagnostic & Imaging Equipment
Therapeutic Equipment
Other Medical Equipment
Industrial
Heavy Equipment
Industrial Automation & Process Control
Building & Civil Engineering
Energy Markets
Machine Tools, Machinery & Robotics
Other Equipment
Automotive
Body Wiring & Power Distribution
Powertrain
Comfort, Convenience & Entertainment
Navigation & Instrumentation
Safety & Security
Transportation
Medium & Heavy Trucks & Busses
Motorcycles/Off-Road & Recreational Vehicles
Rail
Comm./General Aircraft, Rail & Marine Electronics
Military
Telecom/Datacom
Carrier Network
Enterprise Network
Mobile & Wireless
Wireless Infrastructure
Subscriber Equipment
Cable-Equipment-Infrastructure
Other Telecommunications
Consumer
Personal/Portable Consumer Electronics
Home Video Equipment
Home Audio Equipment
Consumer White Goods
Other Consumer
Other Equipment
Chapters 4 Thru 8 Provide The Same Detail Level as Chapter 3
Chapter 4 – European Connector Forecast
Chapter 5 – Japanese Connector Forecast
Chapter 6 – Chinese Connector Forecast
Chapter 7 – Asia Pacific Connector Forecast
Chapter 8 – ROW Connector Forecast
Jan 15, 2013
Print Copy and CD-ROM
Bishop and Associates
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