300/450mm/Copper/Low-K Convergence: Timing, Trends, Issues, Market Analysis
A semiconductor foundry capable of processing 450mm wafers offers a tremendous economy of scale versus facilities working with smaller-diameter wafers, albeit with large startup costs required for the needed wafer-handling equipment. The larger wafers yield more semiconductor die, assuming that good material quality can be maintained across the surface of the larger wafers. As a rough approximation, only about one-half the wafer starts are required for a 450mm wafer facility compared to a 300mm wafer facility to produce the same number of die.
ASML, one of the major equipment suppliers to chip factories, recently decided to stop trying to develop a new generation of machines that could handle 450mm wafers. No one is definitively ruling out 450mm, but even Intel agrees that it is on hold until the end of the decade. TSMC is not as vocal as Intel, but the Taiwan foundry giant is still interested in 450mm, as well. Still others believe 450mm fabs could get pushed out to the 2020 to 2025 timeframe. Now that work is on hold, along with the Intel investment in ASML’s 450mm program.
Equipment makers need a timely decision in order to move forward with their 450mm tool R&D efforts. This report addresses the timeline of 450mm acceptance based on the different requirements of logic versus memory chips. It also focused on the markets for copper interconnect and low-k dielectric deposition equipment and forecasts.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Chapter 1 |
Introduction |
1-1 |
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Chapter 2 |
Executive Summary |
2-1 |
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2.1 |
Summary of Technical Issues |
2-1 |
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2.2 |
Summary of Market Forecasts |
2-5 |
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Chapter 3 |
300/450mm Wafer Issues and Trends |
3-1 |
|
3.1 |
Introduction |
3-1 |
|
3.2 |
Industry Consortia |
3-9 |
|
3.3 |
Benefits of 450mm Wafers |
3-16 |
|
3.4 |
Requirements For IC Manufacturers |
3-23 |
|
3.5 |
Impact on Automation |
3-25 |
|
3.5.1 |
Software |
3-29 |
|
3.6 |
450mm Wafer Issues |
3-31 |
|
3.6.1 |
Overview |
3-31 |
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3.6.2 |
Economic Challenges |
3-40 |
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Chapter 4 |
Copper Issues and Trends |
4-1 |
|
4.1 |
Advantages of Copper |
4-1 |
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4.2 |
Copper Processing Challenges |
4-7 |
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4.3 |
Metal Deposition |
4-18 |
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4.3.1 |
Seed Layer |
4-18 |
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4.3.2 |
Bulk Copper Fill |
4-21 |
|
4.4 |
Barriers |
4-25 |
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4.5 |
Planarization |
4-26 |
|
4.6 |
Metrology |
4-30 |
|
4.7 |
Competing against Aluminum Damascene |
4-36 |
|
4.8 |
Copper for 22nm |
4-38 |
|
4.8.1 |
Low-K and Hard Metal Mask Deposition |
4-42 |
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4.8.2 |
Lithography |
4-43 |
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4.8.3 |
Etch |
4-43 |
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4.8.4 |
Post-etch residue removal |
4-45 |
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4.8.5 |
Chemical mechanical polishing |
4-46 |
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4.9 |
Equipment Suppliers' Copper Electroplating Products |
4-48 |
|
4.10 |
Summary |
4-56 |
|
4.10.1 |
Advantages/Disadvantages of Cu |
4-58 |
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4.10.2 |
Processing Issues |
4-59 |
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4.10.3 |
Challenges |
4-66 |
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Chapter 5 |
Low-K Dielectric Issues and Trends |
5-1 |
|
5.1 |
Introduction |
5-1 |
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5.2 |
Ideal Dielectric |
5-2 |
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5.3 |
Types of Low-K Dielectrics |
5-5 |
|
5.3.1 |
FSG |
5-5 |
|
5.3.2 |
HSQ |
5-7 |
|
5.3.3 |
Nanoporous Silica |
5-8 |
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5.3.4 |
Spin-on Polymers |
5-9 |
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5.3.5 |
BCB |
5-17 |
|
5.3.6 |
Flowfill |
5-17 |
|
5.3.7 |
CVD |
5-18 |
|
5.3.8 |
AF4 |
5-21 |
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5.3.9 |
PTFE |
5-23 |
|
5.4 |
Processing Issues |
5-23 |
|
5.5 |
Summary |
5-29 |
|
5.5.1 |
Integration Issues |
5-29 |
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5.5.2 |
Low-K Dielectric Issues |
5-30 |
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Chapter 6 |
Market Analysis |
6-1 |
|
6.1 |
Semiconductor Market |
6-1 |
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6.2 |
Road to Recovery |
6-3 |
|
6.3 |
Market Forecast Assumptions |
6-7 |
|
6.4 |
450mm Wafer Market Forecast |
6-8 |
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6.5 |
300/450mm Equipment Market |
6-12 |
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6.5.1 |
300/450mm Equipment Tools |
6-12 |
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6.5.2 |
Factory Automation in 300mm Fab Market |
6-16 |
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6.6 |
Copper Processing Equipment Market |
6-20 |
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6.7 |
Low-K Dielectric Market |
6-29 |
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|
List of Tables |
||
|
3.1 |
Completed Wafer Price Increases With Time And Minimum Feature Sizes |
3-19 |
|
3.2 |
Cost of 450mm Fab |
3-24 |
|
3.3 |
Generic Model For CZ Crystal Yield |
3-36 |
|
5.1 |
Low-K Material Requirements |
5-4 |
|
5.2 |
Low-K Materials |
5-6 |
|
6.1 |
Worldwide Market Forecast of Si Wafers |
6-9 |
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6.2 |
Worldwide Market Forecast of 300mm Equipment |
6-13 |
|
6.3 |
Process Tool Automation For 300mm Fabs |
6-17 |
|
6.4 |
Worldwide Forecast of Automation Transfer Tools |
6-18 |
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6.5 |
Worldwide Forecast of Copper Processing Equipment |
6-23 |
|
6.6 |
Worldwide Forecast of Low-K Market |
6-30 |
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|
List of Figures |
||
|
3.1 |
Increase in Wafer Diameter With Time |
3-2 |
|
3.2 |
R&D Costs For Each Wafer Diameter Introduction |
3-6 |
|
3.3 |
Fab Costs For Each Wafer Diameter |
3-7 |
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3.4 |
Revenues For Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment |
3-8 |
|
3.5 |
ITRS Has Its Roadmap For 450mm Wafers |
3-10 |
|
3.6 |
450mm Consortia |
3-11 |
|
3.7 |
Completed Wafer Price Increases With Time and Minimum Feature Sizes |
3-17 |
|
3.8 |
IC Cost With Wafer Size And Device Feature Sizes |
3-21 |
|
3.9 |
Trends In Manufacturing Variables In The Transition From 300m To 450mm Wafers |
3-22 |
|
3.10 |
Wafer Thickness Trends With Diameter |
3-33 |
|
3.11 |
Polysilicon Usage By The Solar Industry |
3-38 |
|
3.12 |
Increasing Cost Of Wafer With Time |
3-41 |
|
4.1 |
Reduced Complexity of Copper Interconnect |
4-4 |
|
4.2 |
Interconnect Delay for Copper |
4-6 |
|
4.3 |
ALD Versus PVD Copper Barrier |
4-10 |
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4.4 |
Copper CMP Steps And Challenges |
4-14 |
|
4.5 |
Electromigration Resistance |
4-17 |
|
4.6 |
Metal Diffusion Barrier |
4-27 |
|
4.7 |
Cu Planarization Process |
4-28 |
|
4.8 |
Copper ECMD Process |
4-31 |
|
4.9 |
Damascus Complete Copper |
4-51 |
|
4.10 |
Copper/Low-K Interconnect Schemes |
4-53 |
|
4.11 |
Copper And Low-K Integration Concerns |
4-67 |
|
5.1 |
Low-K Roadmap |
5-3 |
|
6.1 |
300mm Wafer Market As Percentage of Total Market |
6-10 |
|
6.2 |
Forecast of 450mm Processing Equipment |
6-14 |
|
6.3 |
Interconnect Technology Requirements |
6-21 |
|
6.3 |
Electrochemical Deposition Market Shares - Revenues |
6-24 |
|
6.5 |
Copper Implementation By Geographic Region |
6-26 |
|
6.6 |
Copper Implementation By Feature Size |
6-27 |
|
6.7 |
Low-K Deposition Market Shares |
6-32 |
|
6.8 |
Low-K Precursor Market |
6-34 |
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