This report will take a 10-year look at the global market growth potential for adaptive optics (AO) systems. The report will also present findings on the technology and commercial drivers for the deployment of AO systems in applied scientific research, military, medical, industrial and consumer markets. It provides forecasts of the growth of AO revenues through 2022 for the scientific research, military, medical, industrial and consumer industries.
AO has emerged from the shadows of astronomy research because of its stunning success in allowing large ground-based telescopes to outperform highly publicized space-based systems such as Hubble. It does this by removing aberrations from starlight caused by the Earth’s atmosphere. AO can be used to improve the quality of any image, whether presented to the human retina or for further processing in other image capture systems such as machine vision (MV) or additive manufacturing (AM) systems.
AO is a fast developing optical system technology that will affect a broad range of industries. Although the concept is simple, it is currently a complex system technology. However, the potential for system simplification and cost reduction has far-reaching implications and creates real commercial opportunities. This report will try to balance just enough technical information with commercial factors. It will provide a broad understanding of how AO can be integrated into many different products and industries.
It is important to note that, for the purposes of this report, the definition of an AO system is “a system technology that achieves the desired goal of adding or removing aberrations to or from light wavefronts to improve image clarity and resolution for delivery to a vision system, biological or machine.” Thus, the current complexity can be simplified with dramatic system cost reductions.
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
The human eye is sensitive to display quality and AO provides a significant improvement in display clarity. Each individual’s eyes have different aberration profiles and AO can compensate for this on an individual basis. This is a major driver for the consumer market. Technologies are being developed that will reduce AO system costs to a level appropriate for consumer markets and applications. The markets for these applications are, or will become, very competitive. This report looks into the nature of the competition and the major competitive issues facing vendors in these markets.
Although the integration of AO systems into consumer products was practically nonexistent in 2013, this will change quite rapidly as system costs decrease dramatically. Current markets for AO systems are primarily the scientific research, military and medical industries. Academia, government and industry are keen to see AO component costs driven down to consumer levels (see Appendix II). It is important that vendors understand the market dynamics and potential for AO, as consumer growth will be explosive. The development of new products and technologies that benefit from AO makes this more complicated for decision makers. Vendors need to understand the market forces and technology integration possibilities of AO in order to take advantage of consumer products integration.
SCOPE OF REPORT
The primary scope of this report is to investigate market revenue growth prospects for AO systems. These include near eye displays, mobile displays, machine vision, adaptive driver assistance systems (ADAS) for automobiles, medical systems and emerging markets such as 3D printing. The report forecasts growth of existing AO markets, including scientific research applications, medical and military applications. It also includes estimates of the system cost reductions resulting from technology developments and the economies of manufacturing consumer quantities of components.
Various factors were taken into account in making the market forecast, including new technologies, and the rate of technology and market adoption with realistic assessments of the role of AO as a disruptive as well as a sustaining technology.
The report will look at how the development of new technologies affects price and performance. In some cases, the need for the highest quality AO system will mean system prices remain high. However, the introduction of new materials and technologies will enable AO systems to be integrated into high-volume consumer products.
Recent advances in materials technology, including graphene, electrically sensitive polymers and other materials, can dramatically reduce the cost of components. Advances in the interrogation and modulation of an aberrated wavefront offer reduced cost and increased speed. These and other advantages provide large cost reductions for applications in the medical, military, industrial and consumer segments.
The report also recognizes major global social and economic trends and their impact on market growth as drivers of technology development in all market segments.
CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE STUDY AND INTENDED AUDIENCE
This study takes a first look at how a scientific research technology will play a disruptive role in vision delivery systems over the next 10 years. The report reviews emerging technologies that will benefit from AO, and it should be read by any organization engaged in research or product development involving video or image display, manipulation or redirection. This includes developers of smartphones, smart cameras, entertainment systems, ophthalmoscopy devices, endoscopic devices, eyewear and other near eye displays, additive manufacturing systems such as machine vision and 3D printing and automobile manufacturers.
It will also be of interest to nanosystem researchers. The ability of AO systems to provide real-time high-resolution manipulation of objects at the molecular scale provides great flexibility in manipulating nanosystem architectures. For example, AO-enhanced optical tweezers have been used to manipulate DNA.
Also included is a brief review of the patent landscape. It includes the rate of AO-related patent submissions, as well as a note of significant intellectual property (IP) relating to AO. Although an analysis of patents within the various system component technologies would be helpful, it is beyond the scope of this report. However, the IP issue can be a game changer both ways. It can be a serious barrier to market entry at the same time as stimulating novel and innovative ways to overcome the technical and IP challenges in developing effective, low-cost AO systems.
Finally, the study will be of value to the investment community as a tool to measure the financial potential for new technology, product and distribution investment opportunities in the field of AO.
The global market for adaptive optics (AO) systems reached $139 million in 2013. This market is expected to grow to $157 million in 2014 and about $40.7 billion in 2022, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 87.9% over the nine-year period from 2013 to 2022.
This report provides:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
If you wish to purchased this report by chapters, please use the following order form.
Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION - Complimentary
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
SCOPE OF REPORT
CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE STUDY AND INTENDED AUDIENCE
Chapter 2: SUMMARY 3 $250
Chapter 3: OVERVIEW OF ADAPTIVE OPTICS 6 $261
Chapter 4: REGULATORY ISSUES 5 $218
WHAT ARE MOBILE MEDICAL APPS?
HOW WILL THE FDA REGULATE MOBILE MEDICAL APPS?
MOBILE MEDICAL APPS THAT THE FDA WILL REGULATE
MOBILE APPS FOR WHICH THE FDA INTENDS TO EXERCISE ENFORCEMENT DISCRETION
DOES THE FDA REGULATE MOBILE DEVICES AND MOBILE APP STORES?
DOES THE GUIDANCE APPLY TO ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS?
REGULATION OF LASERS
Chapter 5: AO SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS 8 $348
Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor
Pyramid Wavefront Sensor
Polarized Shearing Interferometer (PSI)Ray Tracing Aberrometry
Wavelet Transform Profilometry
Numerical HologramsWavefront Sensorless Adaptive Optics
Fourier Domain Optical Coherence Tomography
LASER GUIDE STAR CREATION
Chapter 6: MAJOR GROWTH TRAJECTORY FOR ADAPTIVE OPTICS 20 $871
APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH ASTRONOMYRESEARCH MICROSCOPY
ATOMIC FORCE MICROSCOPES
MAJOR RESEARCH ACTIVITY
LIDAR/LADARHigh Energy Laser (HEL)BattlefieldFACTORS AFFECTING MILITARY FORECAST
Political Uncertainty on Budgets
Expectation that AO System Costs will Drop as Forecast
Special Operations Forces Will Integrate AO Despite Budget Issues
Space-Based Defense Technology Spending will be Maintained at 2013 Levels.
Chapter 7: GLOBAL TRENDS AND REGIONAL AO REVENUES 9 $392
APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Chapter 8: AO MARKETS BY INDUSTRY AND APPLICATION 46 $2004
Autologous Cell Therapy (ACT)
Cell Processing Professionals
Semiconductor Fabrication and Design
HEAD MOUNTED DISPLAYS
SMART COMMUNICATIONSAMATEUR ASTRONOMY
Chapter 9: INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 6 $261
GLOBAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 10: CONCLUSIONS 3 $131
Chapter 11: COMPANY PROFILES 91 $3964
3S Photonics S.A.S.
Avensys Inc. (North America)ALPAO SAS
Boston Micromachines Corp.
Iris AO Inc.
Edmund Optics Inc.
Orion Telescopes & Binoculars
Santa Barbara Instrument Group (SBIG)
Aeryon Labs Inc.
Lockheed Martin Corp.
Northrop Grumman Corp.
Northrop Grumman AOA Xinetics DivisionRaytheon Co.
Abbott LaboratoriesBioptigen Inc.
Canon Inc.Carl Zeiss Meditec
3D DIGITAL VISUALIZATION
Heidelberg EngineeringNIDEK Inc.Optovue Inc.OTHER
Agfa HealthCare Corp.
Boston Scientific Corp.
Cook Medical Inc.
HOYA Corp. USA Karl Storz Endoscopy-America Inc.OlympusRichard Wolf GmbHStryker Topcon Medical Systems Inc.BIOPRINTING
Regenovo Biotechnology Co.
Organovo Holdings Inc.PrinterinksUniversity of Wollongong-BioPenINDUSTRIAL
3D PRINTINGMACHINE VISIONAUTOMOBILELITHOGRAPHYCONSUMER
HMD/VRDSMART COMMUNICATION OPERATING SYSTEMSOTHER DISPLAY SYSTEMS
Chapter 12: APPENDIX I: AN OVERVIEW OF THE HUMAN EYE 2 $87
Chapter 13: APPENDIX II: COST STRUCTURE OF AO FOR HIGH-END AND LOW-END CONSUMER MARKETS 5 $218
Chapter 14: APPENDIX III: RECENT AO-RELATED PATENT ACTIVITY 7 $305
Chapter 15: APPENDIX IV: : FDA MOBILE MEDICAL ADVISORY 9 $392
EXAMPLES OF MOBILE APPS THAT ARE NOT MEDICAL DEVICES
EXAMPLES OF MOBILE APPS FOR WHICH FDA INTENDS TO EXERCISE ENFORCEMENT DISCRETION
EXAMPLES OF MOBILE APPS THAT ARE THE FOCUS OF FDA'S REGULATORY OVERSIGHT (MOBILE MEDICAL APPS)
MOBILE APPS THAT TRANSFORM A MOBILE PLATFORM INTO A REGULATED MEDICAL DEVICE AND THEREFORE ARE MOBILE MEDICAL APPSMOBILE APPS THAT CONNECT TO AN EXISTING DEVICE TYPE FOR PURPOSES OF CONTROLLING ITS OPERATION, FUNCTION OR ENERGY SOURCE AND THEREFORE ARE MOBILE MEDICAL APPSMOBILE APPS THAT DISPLAY, TRANSFER, STORE, OR CONVERT PATIENT-SPECIFIC MEDICAL DEVICE DATA FROM A CONNECTED DEVICE AND THEREFORE ARE MOBILE MEDICAL APPS
Chapter 16: APPENDIX V: : ACRONYMS 5 $218
List of Tables
Summary Table : GLOBAL REVENUE GROWTH OF AO MARKET, THROUGH 2022
Table 1 : MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF ADAPTIVE OPTICS SYSTEMS
Table 2 : CURRENT USES OF ADAPTIVE OPTICS SYSTEMS
Table 3 : FUTURE USES OF AO SYSTEMS
Table 4 : ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF ADAPTIVE OPTICS SYSTEMS
Table 5 : APPLICATIONS OF ADAPTIVE OPTICS SYSTEMS
Table 6 : HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ADAPTIVE OPTICS SYSTEMS
Table 7 : LASER STANDARDS AND SAFETY CLASSES
Table 8 : TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOR LOW-COST AO WAVEFRONT CORRECTION ALTERNATIVE TO DEFORMABLE MIRRORS
Table 9 : LIST OF DEFORMABLE MIRROR MANUFACTURERS
Table 10 : NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 2013 PRO-RATA FUNDING OF PROJECTS WITH AO COMPONENTS
Table 11 : NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 2013 PRO-RATA ASTRONOMY DIVISION FUNDING OF AO-RELATED PROJECTS BY UNIVERSITY
Table 12 : TYPES OF MICROSCOPY
Table 13 : AFM MANUFACTURERS BY REGION
Table 14 : LIST OF INNOVATIVE MEDICAL RESEARCH PROJECTS BY ACADEMIA AND MANUFACTURERS
Table 15 : 3D PRINTING TECHNOLOGIES
Table 16 : LIST OF 3D PRINTER MANUFACTURERS
Table 17 : CONSUMER MARKET UNIT SHIPMENTS FOR OTHER DISPLAY SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2022
Table 18 : CONSUMER MARKET REVENUES FROM OTHER DISPLAY SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2022
Table 19 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH APPLICATIONS BY REGION, THROUGH 2022
Table 20 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS BY REGION, 2013-2022
Table 21 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR MEDICAL APPLICATIONS BY REGION, THROUGH 2022
Table 22 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS BY REGION, THROUGH 2022
Table 23 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR CONSUMER APPLICATIONS BY REGION, 2013-2022
Table 24 : REVENUE GROWTH BY APPLICATION SEGMENT FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, THROUGH 2022
Table 25 : GLOBAL LARGE TELESCOPE DEVELOPMENT AND INSTALLATION LOCATIONS WITH AO
Table 26 : ADAPTIVE OPTICS CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY LABORATORIES
Table 27 : REVENUE GROWTH BY APPLICATION SEGMENT FOR MILITARY, THROUGH 2022
Table 28 : REVENUE GROWTH BY MEDICAL APPLICATION SEGMENT, THROUGH 2022
Table 29 : LIST OF NANOMANUFACTURING RESEARCH CENTERS AND THEIR RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
Table 30 : AUTOMOBILE ELECTRONIC SYSTEM MANUFACTURERS
Table 31 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR INDUSTRIAL BY APPLICATION SEGMENT, THROUGH 2022
Table 32 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR CONSUMER PRODUCTS BY APPLICATION SEGMENT, THROUGH 2022
Table 33 : A BRIEF HISTORY OF HMD TECHNOLOGY
Table 34 : HMD SYSTEM VENDORS
Table 35 : MICRODISPLAY SILICON FOUNDRIES FOR HMD DISPLAY SILICON
Table 36 : LCOS VENDORS FOR HMD DISPLAYS
Table 37 : NON-LCOS VENDORS FOR HMD DISPLAYS
Table 38 : HMD MICRODISPLAY RESEARCH CENTERS
Table 39 : TOTAL SMART COMMUNICATION DEVICE UNIT SHIPMENTS BY REGION, THROUGH 2022
Table 40 : VRD SMART COMMUNICATION DEVICES UNIT SHIPMENTS BY REGION, THROUGH 2022
Table 41 : SCREEN DISPLAY SMART COMMUNICATION DEVICES UNIT SHIPMENTS BY REGION, THROUGH 2022
Table 42 : AMATEUR ASTRONOMY MANUFACTURERS
Table 43 : GLOBAL INCREASE IN OLDER AGE GROUPS, 2010-2030
Table 44 : GLOBAL INCREASE IN ALL AGE GROUPS, 2010 AND 2022
Table 45 : AGE GROUP SIZE BY REGION, 2010
Table 46 : WORLD GDP GROWTH, 2013-2016
Table 47 : GLOBAL DEPENDENCY RATIOS FOR THE PERIOD OF 2010-2030
Table 48 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR ASTRONOMY APPLICATIONS, 2013-2015
Table 49 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR LOW-COST SYSTEMS BASED ON CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGY, 2013-2015
Table 50 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR CONSUMER APPLICATIONS BASED ON SUSTAINING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, 2015-2022
Table 51 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR CONSUMER APPLICATIONS BASED ON DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, 2015-2022
Table 52 : MOST RECENT 48 USPTO AND WIPO PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH AO MENTIONED IN PATENT ABSTRACT, MARCH 5, 2013 TO MARCH 4, 2014
Table 53 : MOST RECENT 48 USPTO AND WIPO PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH THE PHRASE "ADAPTIVE OPTICS" IN THE PATENT ABSTRACT BY COUNTRY, MARCH 5, 2013 TO MARCH 4, 2014
Table 54 : MOST RECENT 48 PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH THE PHRASE ""ADAPTIVE OPTICS" IN THE PATENT ABSTRACT BY FILER OR ASSIGNEE TYPE, MARCH 5, 2013 TO MARCH 4, 2014
Table 55 : MOST RECENT 48 PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH THE PHRASE
List of Figures
Summary Figure : GLOBAL REVENUE GROWTH OF AO MARKET, 2013-2022
Figure 1 : NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 2013 PRO-RATA ASTRONOMY DIVISION FUNDING OF AO-RELATED PROJECTS BY UNIVERSITY
Figure 2 : AFM MANUFACTURERS BY REGION
Figure 3 : 3D PRINTER MANUFACTURERS BY REGION
Figure 4 : CONSUMER MARKET UNIT SHIPMENTS FOR OTHER DISPLAY SYSTEMS, 2015 AND 2022
Figure 5 : CONSUMER MARKET REVENUES FROM OTHER DISPLAY SYSTEMS, 2015 AND 2022
Figure 6 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH APPLICATIONS BY REGION, 2013-2022
Figure 7 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS BY REGION 2013-2022
Figure 8 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR MEDICAL APPLICATIONS BY REGION, 2013-2022
Figure 9 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS BY REGION, 2013–2022
Figure 10 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR CONSUMER APPLICATIONS BY REGION, 2013–2022
Figure 11 : REVENUE GROWTH BY APPLICATION SEGMENT FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, 2013-2022
Figure 12 : REVENUE GROWTH BY APPLICATION SEGMENT FOR MILITARY, 2013-2022
Figure 13 : REVENUE GROWTH BY MEDICAL APPLICATION SEGMENT, 2013–2022
Figure 14 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR INDUSTRIAL BY APPLICATION SEGMENT, 2013–2022
Figure 15 : REVENUE GROWTH FOR CONSUMER PRODUCTS BY APPLICATION SEGMENT, 2013–2022
Figure 16 : TOTAL SMART COMMUNICATION DEVICE UNIT SHIPMENTS BY REGION, 2013 AND 2022
Figure 17 : VRD SMART COMMUNICATION DEVICES UNIT SHIPMENTS BY REGION, 2013 AND 2022
Figure 18 : SCREEN DISPLAY SMART COMMUNICATION DEVICES UNIT SHIPMENTS BY REGION, 2013 AND 2022
Figure 19 : GLOBAL INCREASE IN OLDER AGE GROUPS, 2010–2030
Figure 20 : GLOBAL INCREASE FOR ALL AGE GROUPS, 2010 AND 2022
Figure 21 : AGE GROUP SIZE BY REGION, 2010
Figure 22 : WORLD GDP GROWTH, 2013-2016
Figure 23 : GLOBAL DEPENDENCY RATIOS FOR THE PERIOD OF 2010-2030
Figure 24 : THE HUMAN EYE
Figure 25 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR ASTRONOMY APPLICATIONS, 2013–2015
Figure 26 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR LOW-COST SYSTEMS BASED ON CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGY, 2013-2015
Figure 27 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR CONSUMER APPLICATIONS BASED ON SUSTAINING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, 2015-2022
Figure 28 : FORECAST AO SYSTEM COST FOR CONSUMER APPLICATIONS BASED ON DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, 2015-2022
Figure 29 : MOST RECENT 48 USPTO AND WIPO PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH THE PHRASE “ADAPTIVE OPTICS” IN THE PATENT ABSTRACT BY COUNTRY, MARCH 5, 2013 TO MARCH 4, 2014
Figure 30 : MOST RECENT 48 PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH THE PHRASE “ADAPTIVE OPTICS” IN THE PATENT ABSTRACT BY FILER OR ASSIGNEE TYPE, MARCH 5, 2013 TO MARCH 4, 2014
Figure 31 : MOST RECENT 48 PATENTS FILED OR ISSUED WITH THE PHRASE “ADAPTIVE OPTICS” IN THE PATENT ABSTRACT BY REPORT SEGMENT, MARCH 5, 2013 TO MARCH 4, 2014