Argentina CE Industry Key Trends & Developments
A stronger economic outlook for 2015 from our Country Risk team for Argentina, including slower peso depreciation, resulted in an upgrade to the consumer electronics devices spending outlook for 2015 in the Q4 15 update. However, we expect the market to again be disrupted by significant peso depreciation against the US dollar in 2016, which will have the most severe impact on the PC and AV segments, extending the run of handset spending outperformance. We believe the outlook for Argentina is stronger over the medium term, particularly from 2017- 2019. Areas of growth we identify include smartphones, tablets, hybrid notebooks and smart TVs. However, we highlight there is considerable downside risk with Argentina vulnerable to external shocks should the global economic climate become more hostile.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD2.03bn in 2014 to USD1.99bn in 2015, a decrease of 1.4%. After a sharp contraction in demand in 2014 as a result of peso devaluation, we expect the PC market to exhibit stronger performance in 2015, but remain constrained by peso depreciation.
AV Sales : USD2.32bn in 2014 to USD2.19bn in 2015, a contraction of 5.6%. AV sales are expected to underperform in 2015 as a result of negative impact of peso depreciation being exacerbated by the fact TV set demand was brought forward to 2014 by the FIFA World Cup.
Handset Sales : USD2.24bn in 2014 to USD2.44bn in 2015, an increase of 9.1%. Outlook for slower depreciation should increase affordability of smartphones among Argentine consumers, resulting in substitution for more expensive models.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Industry View SWOT Consumer Electronics Market Political Economic Operational Risk Industry Forecast Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Argentina 2013-2019) Macroeconomic Forecasts Economic Analysis Industry Risk Reward Index Table: Americas Risk/Rewards Index, Q4 2015 Market Overview Computers Table: PC Sales (Argentina 2013-2019) AV Table: AV Sales (Argentina 2013-2019) Mobile Handsets Table: Mobile Communications (Argentina 2013-2019) Competitive Landscape Local Companies Table: Banghó Table: Cetrogar Table: Exo Table: Frávega Table: Musimundo Table: Noblex (Newsan) Industry Trends And Developments Computers Table: PC Imports And Production ('000) AV Mobile Devices Regulatory Development Demographic Forecast Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025) Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025) Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025) Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025) Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025) Methodology Industry Forecast Methodology Sector-Specific Methodology Sources Risk/Reward Index Methodology Sector-Specific Methodology Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators Table: Weighting Of Indicators