Clock and Timing Opportunities in Communications Infrastructure

Clock and Timing Opportunities in Communications Infrastructure

Consulting Services & Associates, Date of Publication: Mar 31, 2014, 193 Pages


US$4,250.00
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This is the third year of this report publication and we continue to update and modify the report as a living analysis and report for Comms infrastructure and Back Haul. This years report has many new sections on LTE basics, Updates into almost all segments of the report and analysis and reflect the 2013 challenges for this high valued space.

Communications infrastructure continues to be the most attractive segment in clocking. It has the highest margins, and the longest revenue lifetime. It has the associated challoenges to meet spec that go along with high value added solutions.

The total available market (TAM) for timing products in communications infrastructure was $1.4B in 2010. The market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% to reach $1.86B in 2014. While proliferation has slowed in 2012 and going into 2013, as of the time of this report (March 2013), the trend is moving forward in a positive manner with new base stations and infrastructure implementations picking up by about 2%. China is looking to see the highest level of proliferation, followed by South America, APAC, Eurmea¸and NAM.

Communications infrastructure is a completely different world than the rest of clock market. Compared to consumer and computer applications, communications infrastructure serves different customers in different markets and products must achieve a high technical bar to succeed in these applications. This is a key obstacle for entry, let alone consistency in delivery of precision and ultra-precision class timing solutions that truly add high value.

Communications end products are not as well known as consumer products and computers. You can't go to BestBuy or Yodobashi Camera store to examine and/or purchase your customer's end product. Block diagrams are also harder to come by. It takes deep applications knowledge to understand what timing products to make and extensive market experience to understand where to invest.

New trends in 2013 include more integration of timing functions BY the suppliers ­ this means integration of the fanout/distribution buffer and potentially the resonator, oscillator, frequency generator(s) and a mix of I/O types from a single packaged solution. An example is VoIP clock tree's which are typically implemented with an oscillator or synthesizer (using and external xtal) at 125MHz with better than 100ppm, with low phase noise of <1ps RMS (integrated from 1.875MHz to 20 MHz), followed by a fanout/distribution buffer with anywhere from 4 to 22 outputs in LVCMOS... this can become a fully integrated solution IF the supplier uses the fanout buffer package thus enabling the customer without a change in the current pcb ­ a very attractive proposition.

This is exactly why we have developed this report.

To help to enable our client's success, this report will:

  • Map out the industry ­ datacom, wireline, and wireless ­ provide equipment segmentation, block diagrams, and examples of real use and trends

  • Identify major system vendors and accounts to focus on, describe their key issues including financial performance, product lines, competitive issues, and procurement strategies, design locations

  • Quantify the market for quartz and IC products, segment the market by end application, function, and product type, and forecast consumption through 2014

  • Identify key product requirements for ICs and oscillator modules, including technical specifications and product definition details

  • Analyze quartz and IC suppliers and their products, including the battle between IC and oscillator module companies

  • Identify key issues and opportunities for timing vendors, and

  • Explain why we believe communications infrastructure is a good opportunity for clock and timing component vendors 

This report should be considered as a deep dive into the Communications needs for high valued Timing solutions, and is an adjunct to our main Semiconductor Timing MarketScape reporting and Analysis.


Reference Sources Include: 

  • Carriers: AT&T, China Telecom, KDDI, NTT, Verizon

  • System Vendors: Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia-Siemens Networks, Juniper, Ciena, Brocade, NEC, Fujitsu, Symmetricom

  • Standards Bodies: ANSI, ETSI, IEEE, ITU, NIST, Telecordia

  • IC Vendors: IDT, Analog Devices, Maxim, National Semiconductor, Silicon Labs, Broadcom, ZarLink, Semtech, Pericom, Texas Instruments, On Semiconductor, ST Microelectronics

  • Module Manufacturers: Epson Toyocom, KDS, NDK, Rakon, Raltron, Vectron

  • Market Research: Dell'Oro, Gartner/Dataquest, IDC, Infonetics, InStat, Oppenheimer & Co., Ovum-RHK, U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface   6 
Table of Contents    7 
List of Figures  13 
List of Tables    16 
List of Equations  17 
       Definition  20 
       Mesh networks for wireless backhaul  20 
       Open solutions: using many connections as a backhaul    20 
       Moving from wireless backhaul to wired (superior) connections    21 
           Exception: Microwave superior to copper in some high-tower applications  21 
           Wiring issues    21 
           Hardware issues  21 
           Software issues 21 
       Cell towers moving from microwave to fiber optic  22 
       Very long range (including submarine) networks    22 

Industry Structure    23 
   Overview   23 
   Long-Term Growth  24 
   What Drives Traffic Growth?    25 
       Smart Phones Multiply Internet Traffic   25 
       Video Increases Bandwidth Consumption 28 
   More Traffic Requires Improved Timing Technology  31 

How are 4G and LTE Related?    34 
       The Difference between 4G and LTE:  34 
       Frequencies Associated with Different Regions:  37 
       Data Transfer Speeds for Various Implementations of the Current Standards  38 
       Support For Voice  38 
       What is GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications)?    38 
   Internet Security    39 
   Communications Infrastructure Equipment Classification    41 
   Enterprise Networking    42 
     Enterprise Networking Equipment Segmentation  43 
     Enterprise (Ethernet) Switches    44 
         Enterprise (Ethernet) Switch Block Diagram    46 
         Line Card and Switch Card Functions  47 
         Example Enterprise (Ethernet) Switches  48 
     Storage Networking 49 
     Evolution of Data Center Network Architecture 50 
     Efficiency of Serving Enterprise Markets for Timing Vendors 51 
  Carrier Wireline Network    52 
     Carrier Wireline Equipment Segmentation  52 
     Optical Networking  56 
         SONET/SDH ADMs and MSPPs    56 
         Synchronization Subsystems for Wireline Networks  60 
         Building Integrated Timing Supplies  62 
         Bandwidth Management  64 
         DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing) Systems 64 
     IP Routers    67 
     Fixed Broadband Access Equipment   69 
         DSLAMs  69 
         CMTS & EdgeQAM    70 
         FTTH    71 
     Carrier Wireline Opportunity Summary    73 
  Carrier Wireless Network    74 
     Wireless Base Stations 76 
         Baseband Unit    78 
         Clock Tree for Baseband Unit  78 
         Radio Unit    79 
         Clock Tree for Radio Unit 79 
         Base Station Opportunity Window  79 
     Point-to-Point Microwave Radios for Cellular Backhaul  80 
         Ethernet Radios Decrease Backhaul Costs  80 
         New Technologies Required to Support Ethernet Backhaul    80 
     PicoCells and FemtoCells    82 
         Carriers Embrace FemtoCells Enthusiastically    82 
       LTE Delivers Data Where Fixed Broadband Cannot Reach    84 

A reference point in time; 2010 Communications Clock TAM    85 
   2012 Communications Clock TAM by Market  85 
   2012 Communications Clock TAM by Market Segment    86 
   2012 Communications Clock TAM by Function  87 
   2012 Communications Clock TAM by Product Type  88 
   2012 Crystal and Oscillator TAM by Product Type  89 
   2012 Communications Clock IC TAM by Product Type    90 
   2012 Communications Clock PLL IC TAM by Type  91 

2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast    93 
   2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Market    94 
   2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Market Segment  95 
   2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Function    96 
   2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Product Type    97 
   2011-2014 Communications Crystal and Oscillator Forecast    98 
   2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast by Product Type  99 
   2011-2014 Communications PLL IC Forecast by Type 100 
  Scope of the Forecast: Clocks for Communications Infrastructure  101 

Target Accounts    103 
   System Vendor Financial Performance    106 
   System Vendors Go Global  108 
   System Vendor Account Profiles  109 
       Where the Design Locations Are  109 
       Procurement Strategies  109 
   Target Account Profile: Cisco Systems  109 
   Target Account Profile: L   M   Ericsson    112 
   Target Account Profile: Huawei    113 
   Target Account Profile: Alcatel-Lucent  115 
   Target Account Profile: Nokia-Siemens Networks 116 
   Sales Force Incentives: Revenue or Design Wins?    117 
   Managing Pricing and Margin    118 

Requirements for Successful Products    119 
   Critical Performance Specifications  119 
       Phase Noise and Jitter   120 
       Power Supply Noise Rejection    123 
       Time Interval Error    123 
       Frequency Accuracy  124 
       Tuning Range    126 
       Frequency Stability: Aging and Temperature Coefficient    126 
       Rise Time  126 
       Duty Cycle  127 
       Delay Adjustment    128 
       Output Impedance and Matching 128 
       Power Dissipation    129 
   End Market Requirements  130 
       Ethernet Requirements    130 
       SONET & DWDM Requirements  131 
       Base Station Requirements    132 
          RU Clock Tree 132 
          BBU Clock Tree 134 
       Microwave Radio Requirements    134 
   Crystal and Oscillator Product Requirements    136 
       Crystal Requirements    137 
       XO Module Requirements    138 
       TCXO and OCXO Requirements    140 
          OCXO and TCXO Specifications for SONET and Synchronous Ethernet  140 
          OCXO and TCXO Specifications for Wireless Infrastructure    141 
       VCXO Requirements    142 
          VCXOs for Base Stations    142 
          VCXOs for SONET & DWDM  142 
          VCXOs for CMTS/edge QAM Termination Systems  143 
   IC Product Requirements    144 
       PLL IC Requirements  144 
       Fanout Buffer Requirements    154 

Competitive Analysis  161 
   Crystal and Oscillator Companies 161 
   IC Companies    162 
   PLL ICs vs   Crystals   163 
       PLL Technology Improvements Spawn Application-Specific IC Products    164 
       How PLL ICs are Working to Displace Crystal Oscillator Modules    165 
           Of course, device pricing becomes a big factor, and we have found that many suppliers try 
to provide
           as much BPOM content as is possible in order to keep and maintain their position on the AVL
           Advantages of Integration    165 
           Programmable Solutions Enable Flexible Next-Generation Designs    166 
       How Crystal Oscillator Modules are Maintaining Their Share  167 
       Change Vector: Base Station Timing Chain Evolution    169 
   Emerging Technologies    172 
       Adoption of MEMS  173 
       Future of BAW    175 
       Future Role for Atomic Clocks?    176 

Why Communications Timing Technology is a Good Investment  179 
   Communications Clocks: Good ASPs and High Margins    180 
   Long Revenue Lifetime 182 

Key Challenges  183 
   Jitter Performance   183 
   Market Fragmentation  184 
   Time to Revenue/Time to Volume    185 
   Second Sourcing  185 
   AVL Leverage  186 

Key Opportunities  187 
   Key Opportunity: Next-Generation Ethernet    187 
   Key Opportunity: Microwave Backhaul 188 
   Key Opportunity: LTE  189 
   Key Opportunity: Local Oscillators 190 
   Key Opportunity: Clock Distribution  191 

Closing Remarks: How to Capitalize on this Opportunity  193 

List of Figures

Figure 1: Carriers and System Vendors Focused on Carrier Networking, both Wireline and Wireless    23
Figure 2: Enterprises and System Vendors Focused on Enterprise Networking  24
Figure 3: Internet Traffic Growth 1990-2015    25
Figure 4: High-End Devices Multiply Mobile Traffic   26
Figure 5: Samsung Focus phone, Microsoft operating system, available from AT&T  27
Figure 6: Motorola Atrix phone, Google Android operating system, available from AT&T 27
Figure 7: LG Vortex phone, Google Android operating system, available from Verizon    28
Figure 8: LG's Smart TV User Interface    29
Figure 9: LG's "Magic Motion" Remote Control    29
Figure 10: Journalists Watching Sony's 3D TV Press Introduction at 2011 CES  30
Figure 11: Samsung Shutter-Type 3D TV Glasses    30
Figure 12: NetGear ReadyNAS Ultra 2 Home Media Server    31
Figure 13: Fixed Equipment Size and Increasing Traffic Force Higher Capacity    31
Figure 14: Port and Backplane Data Rates, 1995-2015   32
Figure 15: Overall Communications Network Block Diagram    41
Figure 16: Enterprise Network Block Diagram  42
Figure 17: Enterprise Network Market Segmentation 43
Figure 18: Block Diagram of a Modular Enterprise Switch  46
Figure 19: Cisco Catalyst 6500 Modular Switch Product Family  48
Figure 20: Juniper EX2500 Fixed Enterprise Switch  48
Figure 21: Brocade 48000 Director-Class and 7800 Fabric-Class FibreChannel Switches  49
Figure 22: Evolution of Data Center Switching  50
Figure 23: Carrier Wireline Market Segmentation  52
Figure 24: Carrier WAN Central Office Block Diagram    53
Figure 25: Carrier Wireline Central Office Example  55
Figure 26: Block Diagram of a SONET/SDH MSPP or ADM  56
Figure 27: Alcatel-Lucent 1665 DMX Access Multiplexer    58
Figure 28: Ericsson OMS1460 Packet Optical Transport  58
Figure 29: Fujitsu FlashWave 9500 Packet Optical Networking Platform    59
Figure 30: Block Diagram of Zarlink System Synchronization IC    61
Figure 31: Block Diagram of Zarlink Linecard Synthesis IC   61
Figure 32: System Block Diagram of SONET/SDH ADM or MSPP Illustrating Time Synchronization Subsystem
Implementation on Switch Fabric and Line Cards    62
Figure 33: Symmetricom 5071A Caesium Primary Reference Standard and TimeHub 5500 Building Integrated
Timing Supply    63
Figure 34: Juniper TCA8000 Timing Server  63
Figure 35: Ciena Core Director  64
Figure 36: Alcatel-Lucent 1696 Metrospan Metro WDM System    65
Figure 37: Cisco ONS 15540 DWDM System    65
Figure 38: Block Diagram of a Submarine DWDM Connection  66
Figure 39: Cisco CRS-1 Carrier Routing System    67
Figure 40: Huawei Quidway NetEngine NE-20E/20 Family of Edge Routers  68
Figure 41: Juniper T640 640-Gbps Core IP Router   68
Figure 42: Alcatel-Lucent 7330 ISAM (Integrated Services Access Multiplexer)  69
Figure 43: Rutland Telecom FTTC VDSL2 Cabinet  70
Figure 44: Cisco uBR7246VXR Universal Broadband Router  70
Figure 45: Verizon COO Lowell McAdam Announces FiOS Capacity of 18 Million Subscribers  71
Figure 46: Calix C7 Multi-service Access Platform    72
Figure 47: Evolution of Cellular Phone Standards 74
Figure 48: Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg Explains LTE Rollout Plans   75
Figure 49: Block Diagram of a Cellular Base Station    76
Figure 50: Ericsson RBS-6000 Base Station    77
Figure 51: Nokia-Siemens Flexi 3-sector RF module  78
Figure 52: NEC's PasoLink Microwave Radio    80
Figure 53: AT&T FemtoCell manufactured by Cisco  83
Figure 54: FemtoCell Network Architecture    83
Figure 55: Gary Oliverio, CTO and Founder of CradlePoint, shows off 3G/4G WiFi Router    84
Figure 56: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by market  85
Figure 57: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by market segment    86
Figure 58: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by function  87
Figure 59: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by product type    88
Figure 60: 2010 Communications Clock Crystal and Oscillator TAM ($M)    89
Figure 61: 2010 Communications Clock IC TAM ($M), by product type 90
Figure 62: 2010 Communications Clock PLL IC TAM ($M), by type 91
Figure 63: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M)  93
Figure 64: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market    94
Figure 65: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market segment  95
Figure 66: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by function    96
Figure 67: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by product type  97
Figure 68: 2011-2014 Communications Crystal and Oscillator Forecast ($M)  98
Figure 69: 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast ($M), by product type   99
Figure 70: 2011-2014 Communications PLL IC Forecast ($M), by type    100
Figure 71: Pareto of 2010 System Vendor Revenue ($B)  103
Figure 72: Top 16 System Vendors by Geography and Market Segment    105
Figure 73: Financial Performance of Top 5 System Vendors    106
Figure 74: Purchase Volume vs   Time for a typical single major design win  117
Figure 75: Agilent E5052B Phase Noise Measurement System    120
Figure 76: PLL Synthesizer IC Measured Phase Noise  121
Figure 77: Power Supply Noise Injection Mechanisms    123
Figure 78: IDT ICS843003 FemtoClock Block Diagram   145
Figure 79: Maxim MAX3639 Block Diagram    146
Figure 80: Analog Devices AD9516 Block Diagram  147
Figure 81: Analog Devices AD9572 Block Diagram  148
Figure 82: National Semiconductor LMK04800 Dual-Loop Clock Jitter Cleaner IC Simplified Block Diagram149
Figure 83: National Semiconductor LMK04800 Dual-Loop Clock Jitter Cleaner IC Detailed Block Diagram    150
Figure 84: Silicon Labs Si5324 Block Diagram  151
Figure 85: TI TRF3761 Block Diagram    152
Figure 86: ST Microelectronics STW81103 Block Diagram  153
Figure 87: On Semiconductor MC100LVE111 1:9 LVPECL Fanout Buffer  155
Figure 88: Pericom PI6C4853111 2:10 LVPECL Fanout Buffer   156
Figure 89: Analog Devices ADCLK944 1:4 LVPECL Fanout Buffer    157
Figure 90: Analog Devices AD9512 1:5 LVPECL Fanout Buffer with Programmable Output Dividers and Phase
Adjustment 158
Figure 91: Texas Instruments' CDCM7005 5-Output Fanout Buffer with Programmable Dividers and PLL  159
Figure 92: Integration Example, Large Ethernet Line Card 165
Figure 93: Base Station Radio Unit using High-Frequency VCXO Module  169
Figure 94: Base Station Radio Unit using Low-Frequency VCXO Module and 2 PLL ICs 170
Figure 95: Base Station Radio Concept using Dual-Loop PLL IC and Inexpensive Crystal  171
Figure 96: Symmetricom SA  45s Chip-Scale Atomic Clock   176
Figure 97: Chip-Scale Atomic Clock Construction    177

List of Tables

Table 1: Common Ethernet Clock Frequencies    33
Table 2: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market  94
Table 3: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market segment  95
Table 4: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by function   96
Table 5: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by product type  97
Table 6: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Crystal and Oscillator Forecast ($M) 98
Table 7: 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast ($M), by product type  99
Table 8: 2011-2014 Communications Clock PLL IC Forecast ($M), by type  100
Table 9: 2010 and 2009 System Vendor Revenues ($M)    104
Table 10: Financial Performance of Top 5 System Vendors  107
Table 11: Key Facts: Cisco Systems  110
Table 12: Key Facts: L   M   Ericsson    112
Table 13: Key Facts: Huawei    113
Table 14: Key Facts: Alcatel-Lucent  115
Table 15: Key Facts: Nokia-Siemens Networks    116
Table 16: Integrated Phase Jitter vs   Integration Bandwidth  122
Table 17: Comparison of RiseTime Specifications    127
Table 18: Example Crystal Specifications for an Ethernet Clock Generator IC    137
Table 19: Example Crystal Specifications for a VCXO Jitter Cleaner IC    137
Table 20: OCXO and TCXO Specifications for SONET and Synchronous Ethernet   140
Table 21: Competitive Positioning between Crystal and Oscillator Module Companies   161
Table 22: Competitive Positioning between IC Clock and Timing Companies  162

List of Equations

Equation 1: Time Interval Error    124
Equation 2: Power Supply Noise Contribution to Deterministic Jitter  124

Date of Publication:
Mar 31, 2014
File Format:
PDF via E-mail (Enterprise License)
Number of Pages:
193 Pages

Custom Research Services

Consulting Services and Associates LLC (CS &A LLC) was established in 2002, and is based in the heart of the Silicon Valley located in Cupertino, California, where it has established itself as the number one Go To Resource for information relating to the Semiconductor Timing Industry.

Resourced and staffed by Semiconductor Timing Industry veterans with more than 100 man years of combined experience in the industry with disciplines including; Marketing, Engineering, Technology Development, Manufacture, and Sales Channel, make up this first class team.

CS &A LLC provides the most comprehensive, in depth, and detailed reporting in the industry with focus on all aspects of Semiconductor Timing Technologies to include;

  • SAW

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  • PLL’s

  • DLL’s

  • Fractional N PLL’s

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Referred to as; “Actionable Reporting”, our clients have come to rely upon CS &A data in market research, competitive analysis, product development and definition, and market trending with key applications supporting growth in the Semi Timing industry. Supported by the leading suppliers in the Timing Industry, CS &A has positioned itself with Market Reporting, Consulting Services, and Lab resources and services able to full characterize any Semi Timing solution.

Our unique reporting method of Top Down / Bottoms up, provides the best possible data collection, segregation and aggregation for factoring and a full Analysis is what makes our reporting both special and unique. According to Mark Sherwood, the Principal Associate and CEO at CS &A; “Our reach is Worldwide, and we continue to support our consulting clients onsite and remote, as needed, as well as providing the best in class reporting.  Our Clients make up a significant percentage of the worldwide supplier base as well as channel players and high consumption OEM’s. This reflects the level of detail, accuracy, and actionable content realized through our reporting allowing a wide view and scope of the Semiconductor Timing MarketScape. This is one area that has helped differentiated CS &A from the rest of the pack, and our position as the leader for the last 6 years, reflects the value of our work and end product.”


CS &A LLC’s Report coverage spans all key markets for Semiconductor Timing to include;

  • Consumer

  • Gaming

  • Computing

    • Motherboard

    • Non Motherboard

  • Communications

    • Physical Layer and MAC Timing

    • Infrastructure and Back Haul

    • Wireless and Radio

  • Industrial

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    • Appliances

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  • Military / Aerospace and Avionics

  • Radio

In Semiconductor Timing research and reporting, CS &A includes all types and categoriesof Semiconductor Timing Solutions to Include;

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CS &A reports on Commodity, Complex Commodity, Precision and Ultra-Precision class Semiconductor Timing Solutions and incorporates 90% of the Worldwide supplier base into our analysis and reporting. Unique, in depth, relevant, timely, detailed and comprehensive, and actionable are best words to describe the value added.

CS &A is a very active participantin the industry via its consulting services group, and is staffed with industry professionals with significant experience and expertise that complement the capabilities of this information provider. Also, CS &A remains an active player in Industry based committees such as JEDEC, ANSI, and IEEE, add to our reach and helps keep us up to date in technology, design, and manufacture. Keeps them deeply involved, and up to date…

Today, CS &A provides a number of Industry Market Reports specific to the Semiconductor Timing segment;

  1. Crystals and Oscillator Report and Analysis

  2. Semiconductor Clock and Timing Report and Analysis

  3. Combined Semiconductor Timing Report and Analysis

  4. Semiconductor Timing Opportunities in Communications Infrastructure and Back Haul

  5. High End Focused Semiconductor Timing and RF Filters

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