This is the third year of this report publication and we continue to update and modify the report as a living analysis and report for Comms infrastructure and Back Haul. This years report has many new sections on LTE basics, Updates into almost all segments of the report and analysis and reflect the 2013 challenges for this high valued space.
Communications infrastructure continues to be the most attractive segment in clocking. It has the highest margins, and the longest revenue lifetime. It has the associated challoenges to meet spec that go along with high value added solutions.
The total available market (TAM) for timing products in communications infrastructure was $1.4B in 2010. The market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% to reach $1.86B in 2014. While proliferation has slowed in 2012 and going into 2013, as of the time of this report (March 2013), the trend is moving forward in a positive manner with new base stations and infrastructure implementations picking up by about 2%. China is looking to see the highest level of proliferation, followed by South America, APAC, Eurmea¸and NAM.
Communications infrastructure is a completely different world than the rest of clock market. Compared to consumer and computer applications, communications infrastructure serves different customers in different markets and products must achieve a high technical bar to succeed in these applications. This is a key obstacle for entry, let alone consistency in delivery of precision and ultra-precision class timing solutions that truly add high value.
Communications end products are not as well known as consumer products and computers. You can't go to BestBuy or Yodobashi Camera store to examine and/or purchase your customer's end product. Block diagrams are also harder to come by. It takes deep applications knowledge to understand what timing products to make and extensive market experience to understand where to invest.
New trends in 2013 include more integration of timing functions BY the suppliers this means integration of the fanout/distribution buffer and potentially the resonator, oscillator, frequency generator(s) and a mix of I/O types from a single packaged solution. An example is VoIP clock tree's which are typically implemented with an oscillator or synthesizer (using and external xtal) at 125MHz with better than 100ppm, with low phase noise of <1ps RMS (integrated from 1.875MHz to 20 MHz), followed by a fanout/distribution buffer with anywhere from 4 to 22 outputs in LVCMOS... this can become a fully integrated solution IF the supplier uses the fanout buffer package thus enabling the customer without a change in the current pcb a very attractive proposition.
This is exactly why we have developed this report.
To help to enable our client's success, this report will:
Reference Sources Include:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface 6 Table of Contents 7 List of Figures 13 List of Tables 16 List of Equations 17 Definition 20 Mesh networks for wireless backhaul 20 Open solutions: using many connections as a backhaul 20 Moving from wireless backhaul to wired (superior) connections 21 Exception: Microwave superior to copper in some high-tower applications 21 Wiring issues 21 Hardware issues 21 Software issues 21 Cell towers moving from microwave to fiber optic 22 Very long range (including submarine) networks 22 Industry Structure 23 Overview 23 Long-Term Growth 24 What Drives Traffic Growth? 25 Smart Phones Multiply Internet Traffic 25 Video Increases Bandwidth Consumption 28 More Traffic Requires Improved Timing Technology 31 How are 4G and LTE Related? 34 The Difference between 4G and LTE: 34 Frequencies Associated with Different Regions: 37 Data Transfer Speeds for Various Implementations of the Current Standards 38 Support For Voice 38 What is GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications)? 38 Internet Security 39 Communications Infrastructure Equipment Classification 41 Enterprise Networking 42 Enterprise Networking Equipment Segmentation 43 Enterprise (Ethernet) Switches 44 Enterprise (Ethernet) Switch Block Diagram 46 Line Card and Switch Card Functions 47 Example Enterprise (Ethernet) Switches 48 Storage Networking 49 Evolution of Data Center Network Architecture 50 Efficiency of Serving Enterprise Markets for Timing Vendors 51 Carrier Wireline Network 52 Carrier Wireline Equipment Segmentation 52 Optical Networking 56 SONET/SDH ADMs and MSPPs 56 Synchronization Subsystems for Wireline Networks 60 Building Integrated Timing Supplies 62 Bandwidth Management 64 DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing) Systems 64 IP Routers 67 Fixed Broadband Access Equipment 69 DSLAMs 69 CMTS & EdgeQAM 70 FTTH 71 Carrier Wireline Opportunity Summary 73 Carrier Wireless Network 74 Wireless Base Stations 76 Baseband Unit 78 Clock Tree for Baseband Unit 78 Radio Unit 79 Clock Tree for Radio Unit 79 Base Station Opportunity Window 79 Point-to-Point Microwave Radios for Cellular Backhaul 80 Ethernet Radios Decrease Backhaul Costs 80 New Technologies Required to Support Ethernet Backhaul 80 PicoCells and FemtoCells 82 Carriers Embrace FemtoCells Enthusiastically 82 LTE Delivers Data Where Fixed Broadband Cannot Reach 84 A reference point in time; 2010 Communications Clock TAM 85 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Market 85 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Market Segment 86 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Function 87 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Product Type 88 2012 Crystal and Oscillator TAM by Product Type 89 2012 Communications Clock IC TAM by Product Type 90 2012 Communications Clock PLL IC TAM by Type 91 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast 93 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Market 94 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Market Segment 95 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Function 96 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Product Type 97 2011-2014 Communications Crystal and Oscillator Forecast 98 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast by Product Type 99 2011-2014 Communications PLL IC Forecast by Type 100 Scope of the Forecast: Clocks for Communications Infrastructure 101 Target Accounts 103 System Vendor Financial Performance 106 System Vendors Go Global 108 System Vendor Account Profiles 109 Where the Design Locations Are 109 Procurement Strategies 109 Target Account Profile: Cisco Systems 109 Target Account Profile: L M Ericsson 112 Target Account Profile: Huawei 113 Target Account Profile: Alcatel-Lucent 115 Target Account Profile: Nokia-Siemens Networks 116 Sales Force Incentives: Revenue or Design Wins? 117 Managing Pricing and Margin 118 Requirements for Successful Products 119 Critical Performance Specifications 119 Phase Noise and Jitter 120 Power Supply Noise Rejection 123 Time Interval Error 123 Frequency Accuracy 124 Tuning Range 126 Frequency Stability: Aging and Temperature Coefficient 126 Rise Time 126 Duty Cycle 127 Delay Adjustment 128 Output Impedance and Matching 128 Power Dissipation 129 End Market Requirements 130 Ethernet Requirements 130 SONET & DWDM Requirements 131 Base Station Requirements 132 RU Clock Tree 132 BBU Clock Tree 134 Microwave Radio Requirements 134 Crystal and Oscillator Product Requirements 136 Crystal Requirements 137 XO Module Requirements 138 TCXO and OCXO Requirements 140 OCXO and TCXO Specifications for SONET and Synchronous Ethernet 140 OCXO and TCXO Specifications for Wireless Infrastructure 141 VCXO Requirements 142 VCXOs for Base Stations 142 VCXOs for SONET & DWDM 142 VCXOs for CMTS/edge QAM Termination Systems 143 IC Product Requirements 144 PLL IC Requirements 144 Fanout Buffer Requirements 154 Competitive Analysis 161 Crystal and Oscillator Companies 161 IC Companies 162 PLL ICs vs Crystals 163 PLL Technology Improvements Spawn Application-Specific IC Products 164 How PLL ICs are Working to Displace Crystal Oscillator Modules 165 Of course, device pricing becomes a big factor, and we have found that many suppliers try
as much BPOM content as is possible in order to keep and maintain their position on the AVL Advantages of Integration 165 Programmable Solutions Enable Flexible Next-Generation Designs 166 How Crystal Oscillator Modules are Maintaining Their Share 167 Change Vector: Base Station Timing Chain Evolution 169 Emerging Technologies 172 Adoption of MEMS 173 Future of BAW 175 Future Role for Atomic Clocks? 176 Why Communications Timing Technology is a Good Investment 179 Communications Clocks: Good ASPs and High Margins 180 Long Revenue Lifetime 182 Key Challenges 183 Jitter Performance 183 Market Fragmentation 184 Time to Revenue/Time to Volume 185 Second Sourcing 185 AVL Leverage 186 Key Opportunities 187 Key Opportunity: Next-Generation Ethernet 187 Key Opportunity: Microwave Backhaul 188 Key Opportunity: LTE 189 Key Opportunity: Local Oscillators 190 Key Opportunity: Clock Distribution 191 Closing Remarks: How to Capitalize on this Opportunity 193 List of Figures Figure 1: Carriers and System Vendors Focused on Carrier Networking, both Wireline and Wireless 23 Figure 2: Enterprises and System Vendors Focused on Enterprise Networking 24 Figure 3: Internet Traffic Growth 1990-2015 25 Figure 4: High-End Devices Multiply Mobile Traffic 26 Figure 5: Samsung Focus phone, Microsoft operating system, available from AT&T 27 Figure 6: Motorola Atrix phone, Google Android operating system, available from AT&T 27 Figure 7: LG Vortex phone, Google Android operating system, available from Verizon 28 Figure 8: LG's Smart TV User Interface 29 Figure 9: LG's "Magic Motion" Remote Control 29 Figure 10: Journalists Watching Sony's 3D TV Press Introduction at 2011 CES 30 Figure 11: Samsung Shutter-Type 3D TV Glasses 30 Figure 12: NetGear ReadyNAS Ultra 2 Home Media Server 31 Figure 13: Fixed Equipment Size and Increasing Traffic Force Higher Capacity 31 Figure 14: Port and Backplane Data Rates, 1995-2015 32 Figure 15: Overall Communications Network Block Diagram 41 Figure 16: Enterprise Network Block Diagram 42 Figure 17: Enterprise Network Market Segmentation 43 Figure 18: Block Diagram of a Modular Enterprise Switch 46 Figure 19: Cisco Catalyst 6500 Modular Switch Product Family 48 Figure 20: Juniper EX2500 Fixed Enterprise Switch 48 Figure 21: Brocade 48000 Director-Class and 7800 Fabric-Class FibreChannel Switches 49 Figure 22: Evolution of Data Center Switching 50 Figure 23: Carrier Wireline Market Segmentation 52 Figure 24: Carrier WAN Central Office Block Diagram 53 Figure 25: Carrier Wireline Central Office Example 55 Figure 26: Block Diagram of a SONET/SDH MSPP or ADM 56 Figure 27: Alcatel-Lucent 1665 DMX Access Multiplexer 58 Figure 28: Ericsson OMS1460 Packet Optical Transport 58 Figure 29: Fujitsu FlashWave 9500 Packet Optical Networking Platform 59 Figure 30: Block Diagram of Zarlink System Synchronization IC 61 Figure 31: Block Diagram of Zarlink Linecard Synthesis IC 61 Figure 32: System Block Diagram of SONET/SDH ADM or MSPP Illustrating Time Synchronization Subsystem Implementation on Switch Fabric and Line Cards 62 Figure 33: Symmetricom 5071A Caesium Primary Reference Standard and TimeHub 5500 Building Integrated Timing Supply 63 Figure 34: Juniper TCA8000 Timing Server 63 Figure 35: Ciena Core Director 64 Figure 36: Alcatel-Lucent 1696 Metrospan Metro WDM System 65 Figure 37: Cisco ONS 15540 DWDM System 65 Figure 38: Block Diagram of a Submarine DWDM Connection 66 Figure 39: Cisco CRS-1 Carrier Routing System 67 Figure 40: Huawei Quidway NetEngine NE-20E/20 Family of Edge Routers 68 Figure 41: Juniper T640 640-Gbps Core IP Router 68 Figure 42: Alcatel-Lucent 7330 ISAM (Integrated Services Access Multiplexer) 69 Figure 43: Rutland Telecom FTTC VDSL2 Cabinet 70 Figure 44: Cisco uBR7246VXR Universal Broadband Router 70 Figure 45: Verizon COO Lowell McAdam Announces FiOS Capacity of 18 Million Subscribers 71 Figure 46: Calix C7 Multi-service Access Platform 72 Figure 47: Evolution of Cellular Phone Standards 74 Figure 48: Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg Explains LTE Rollout Plans 75 Figure 49: Block Diagram of a Cellular Base Station 76 Figure 50: Ericsson RBS-6000 Base Station 77 Figure 51: Nokia-Siemens Flexi 3-sector RF module 78 Figure 52: NEC's PasoLink Microwave Radio 80 Figure 53: AT&T FemtoCell manufactured by Cisco 83 Figure 54: FemtoCell Network Architecture 83 Figure 55: Gary Oliverio, CTO and Founder of CradlePoint, shows off 3G/4G WiFi Router 84 Figure 56: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by market 85 Figure 57: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by market segment 86 Figure 58: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by function 87 Figure 59: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by product type 88 Figure 60: 2010 Communications Clock Crystal and Oscillator TAM ($M) 89 Figure 61: 2010 Communications Clock IC TAM ($M), by product type 90 Figure 62: 2010 Communications Clock PLL IC TAM ($M), by type 91 Figure 63: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M) 93 Figure 64: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market 94 Figure 65: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market segment 95 Figure 66: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by function 96 Figure 67: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by product type 97 Figure 68: 2011-2014 Communications Crystal and Oscillator Forecast ($M) 98 Figure 69: 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast ($M), by product type 99 Figure 70: 2011-2014 Communications PLL IC Forecast ($M), by type 100 Figure 71: Pareto of 2010 System Vendor Revenue ($B) 103 Figure 72: Top 16 System Vendors by Geography and Market Segment 105 Figure 73: Financial Performance of Top 5 System Vendors 106 Figure 74: Purchase Volume vs Time for a typical single major design win 117 Figure 75: Agilent E5052B Phase Noise Measurement System 120 Figure 76: PLL Synthesizer IC Measured Phase Noise 121 Figure 77: Power Supply Noise Injection Mechanisms 123 Figure 78: IDT ICS843003 FemtoClock Block Diagram 145 Figure 79: Maxim MAX3639 Block Diagram 146 Figure 80: Analog Devices AD9516 Block Diagram 147 Figure 81: Analog Devices AD9572 Block Diagram 148 Figure 82: National Semiconductor LMK04800 Dual-Loop Clock Jitter Cleaner IC Simplified Block Diagram149 Figure 83: National Semiconductor LMK04800 Dual-Loop Clock Jitter Cleaner IC Detailed Block Diagram 150 Figure 84: Silicon Labs Si5324 Block Diagram 151 Figure 85: TI TRF3761 Block Diagram 152 Figure 86: ST Microelectronics STW81103 Block Diagram 153 Figure 87: On Semiconductor MC100LVE111 1:9 LVPECL Fanout Buffer 155 Figure 88: Pericom PI6C4853111 2:10 LVPECL Fanout Buffer 156 Figure 89: Analog Devices ADCLK944 1:4 LVPECL Fanout Buffer 157 Figure 90: Analog Devices AD9512 1:5 LVPECL Fanout Buffer with Programmable Output Dividers and Phase Adjustment 158 Figure 91: Texas Instruments' CDCM7005 5-Output Fanout Buffer with Programmable Dividers and PLL 159 Figure 92: Integration Example, Large Ethernet Line Card 165 Figure 93: Base Station Radio Unit using High-Frequency VCXO Module 169 Figure 94: Base Station Radio Unit using Low-Frequency VCXO Module and 2 PLL ICs 170 Figure 95: Base Station Radio Concept using Dual-Loop PLL IC and Inexpensive Crystal 171 Figure 96: Symmetricom SA 45s Chip-Scale Atomic Clock 176 Figure 97: Chip-Scale Atomic Clock Construction 177 List of Tables Table 1: Common Ethernet Clock Frequencies 33 Table 2: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market 94 Table 3: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market segment 95 Table 4: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by function 96 Table 5: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by product type 97 Table 6: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Crystal and Oscillator Forecast ($M) 98 Table 7: 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast ($M), by product type 99 Table 8: 2011-2014 Communications Clock PLL IC Forecast ($M), by type 100 Table 9: 2010 and 2009 System Vendor Revenues ($M) 104 Table 10: Financial Performance of Top 5 System Vendors 107 Table 11: Key Facts: Cisco Systems 110 Table 12: Key Facts: L M Ericsson 112 Table 13: Key Facts: Huawei 113 Table 14: Key Facts: Alcatel-Lucent 115 Table 15: Key Facts: Nokia-Siemens Networks 116 Table 16: Integrated Phase Jitter vs Integration Bandwidth 122 Table 17: Comparison of RiseTime Specifications 127 Table 18: Example Crystal Specifications for an Ethernet Clock Generator IC 137 Table 19: Example Crystal Specifications for a VCXO Jitter Cleaner IC 137 Table 20: OCXO and TCXO Specifications for SONET and Synchronous Ethernet 140 Table 21: Competitive Positioning between Crystal and Oscillator Module Companies 161 Table 22: Competitive Positioning between IC Clock and Timing Companies 162 List of Equations Equation 1: Time Interval Error 124 Equation 2: Power Supply Noise Contribution to Deterministic Jitter 124
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