Mobile Backhaul Planning and Engineering Considerations and Market Potential

The word backhaul is somewhat misleading, as it brings up thoughts of double hauling of traffic. This of course is not the case. Backhaul is simply the name applied to the connection to the network. Backhaul has been around much longer than the cellular industry. It is the connection from any point of concentration (cell site, voice switch/concentrator, data switch/router, etc.) to the network. It is the facility that connects to the line side of the router. It is the facility that connects to the network side of a switch.

The cellular industry has grown from almost nothing in the last two decades to the most dominate communications service/technology in the world. However, as the forecasts in this report clearly show, that growth is far from over. Just to put the deluge of mobile devices in perspective here are some statistics:

• 87% of American adults own cell phones, but traffic continues to grow at a record pace, and many individuals now own multiple cellular devices and that is a growing trend.

• Over have of these are Smart Phones.

• It is estimated that in 2013 the number of owned mobile devices (phones, tablets, laptops, etc) exceeded the World’s population.

• US mobile traffic is now 12 times the traffic on the entire Internet in 2000.

• Mobile data traffic grew 70% in 2012.

The traffic growth on mobile devices continues (in addition to the growth in raw numbers of devices and the movement from just phones to much more capable – and more data hungry – smartphones) as the devices have first embraced high data usage and now are embracing video delivery.

This report is a guideline for considerations for planning and engineering backhaul, as well as forecasts for the cellular industry market potential.  It will provide a useful tool for anyone (novice to engineer in the field) to understanding the complexities and choices in planning and engineering a vast variety of telecommunications projects. It will also be invaluable as a guide to the growth that has occurred and is forecast to continue for the cellular industry. While the report is primarily aimed at the cellular industry, it is also intended as a guide for all types of projects requiring a connection to the network.

The report starts with a statistical view of the growth of mobile devices, with forecasts. The next several sections deal with the market potential of the cellular industry with an emphasis on the North American market, but also with information from worldwide sources. It then moves to a review of the various types of backhaul, i.e., facilities that can be used for backhaul. Next is a discussion of the general architecture of backhaul and its direct application to cellular architecture. The next section describes the various application scenarios that may require backhaul. Then there is a more detailed section on traffic considerations, and a very detailed discussion of the various engineering considerations in applying backhaul, (including cost and cost trade-off scenarios) with emphasis on the responsibilities of the backhaul engineer.

The last section lists a sampling of vendors of backhaul equipment. The Appendixes provide detailed information on the traffic engineering concepts referenced in the report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

General Reports on the Network

General Market Reports

Specific Systems Reports

INTRODUCTION

MARKET POTENTIAL OF MAJOR US CELLULAR CARRIERS

Mobile Devices - Forecast

MARKET POTENTIAL OF MAJOR US CELLULAR CARRIERS

Worldwide Mobile Companies

Subscribers by Major Carriers, North America – Forecast

MARKET POTENTIAL OF MOBILE DEVICE SALES – FORECAST BY MANUFACTURER

Forecast for Active US Mobile Devices

World Device Sales - Actual

US Device Sales – Actual and Forecast

TYPES OF BACKHAUL

Types

Microwave Radio

Other Radio Alternatives

Copper Cable Pairs

Fiber Cable Pairs

BACKHAUL ARCHITECTURE • Link to/from Network

• Mobile Switching Office (MSU)

• Tower Connection – Backhaul

• Tower

• Tower to Device Connection

• History of Mobile Frequencies

• Current Usage – US

• Cellular Device

• Operating System

Non-Mobile Backhaul

Mobile Traffic on the Network

BACKHAUL APPLICATION SCENARIOS

“Green – Green Field”

Greenfield

Infrastructure Present

TRAFFIC CONSIDERATIONS

Traffic Per Use - Forecast

United States Traffic Forecast

Mobile Traffic on the Network

ENGINEERING CONSIDERATIONS

“Soft” Considerations

“Hard” Considerations • Traffic sizing

• Transmission design

• Facility spares

• Maintenance spares

• Secondary communications:

• Emergency Power

• Testing and Maintenance:

• Safety and the Environment:

• Permitting:

Cost Issues

Advanced Topics • Fronthaul

• FTTA

A SAMPLING OF MANUFACTURES OF BACKHAUL HARDWARE

System Vendor Listing • Adva Optical Networking

• Alcatel-Lucent

• Cisco

• ECI

• Ericsson

• Fujitsu

• Infinera

• Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) — Meriton – Now Xtera

• Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)

• Meriton Networks

• Movaz Networks (ADVA)

• NEC America Inc.

• Nistica

• Nokia Siemens (NSN)

• Nortel (Now dissolved)

• OpVista Inc.

• Tellabs

• Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)

• ZTE

APPENDIX I – US MOBILE OPERATORS

APPENDIX II, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS

APPENDIX III, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

Internet Traffic Calculations • Bits and Bytes

• Transfer Rate

• Busy Hour Traffic

• Protocol Efficiencies

• Peaking

Table of Figures

Figure 1, Lightwave Network
Figure 2, Theoretical Traffic Equation
Figure 3, Practical Traffic Equation
Figure 4, Forecast for US Active Mobile Devices
Figure 5, Forecast for US Active Mobile Devices – Table Form
Figure 6, Worlds Largest Mobile Phone Companies by Mobile Revenue
Figure 7, Subscribers by Carrier - Forecast
Figure 8, Subscribers by Carrier Forecast - Table
Figure 9, Forecast for US Active Mobile Devices
Figure 10, Worldwide Device Sales 2011 -2012
Figure 11, Forecast of US Device Sales
Figure 12, Forecast of US Device Sales - Table
Figure 13, Mobile Service Access Architecture
Figure 14, Technologies and Frequencies
Figure 15, Current Licenses - US
Figure 16, Non-Mobile Backhaul Examples
Figure 17, Mobile Network Access
Figure 18, Practical Traffic Equation
Figure 19, Traffic per use Forecast - United States Mobile Devices
Figure 20, Traffic per use Forecast - United States Mobile Devices- Table
Figure 21, United States Mobile Traffic Forecast
Figure 22, United States Mobile Traffic Forecast - Table
Figure 23, Mobile Network Access
Figure 24, Dilemma of Wireline vs. Wireless
Figure 25, Backhaul Cost Assumptions
Figure 26, Cash Flow Chart
Figure 27, Combinations of Wireless, Leased and Built Fiber
Figure 28: Traffic/Speed Relationships
Figure 29: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
Figure 30, Multiples of Byte
Figure 31: New Transfer Rate Forecast
Figure 32: Summary of Concepts