BMI downgraded its forecast for the Polish consumer electronics market for 2015 to take into account the Country Risk team's bearish view of the Polish zloty performance vis-a-vis the US dollar. The change in the exchange rate will erode the purchasing power and discretionary spending power of household in Poland. From 2016 onwards, we estimate the market to return to growth as a result of income growth and the popularity of smartphones and tablet devices. Furthermore, in terms of electronics production, the domestic market has a number of strong manufacturers who are capable of producing affordable goods for the Polish market. Our core scenario is for continued growth in the consumer electronics segment, as we forecast a CAGR of 3.1% between 2015 and 2019.
Headline Expenditure Projections :
Computer Hardware Sales: USD3.86bn in 2014 to USD3.29bn in 2015, -14.6% y-o-y in US dollar terms. After a contraction in 2015 derived from product cycles and economic conditions, we expect the market to return to a stronger growth trajectory from 2016.
AV Sales: USD2.42bn in 2014 to USD2.09bn in 2015, -13.9% y-o-y in US dollar terms. Big-ticket TV set demand will be hit by zloty depreciation, while further digital camera volume cannibalisation expected in 2015 before stabilisation in the latter years of our forecast.
Handset Sales: USD3.28bn in 2014 to USD3.34bn in 2015, +1.9% y-o-y in US dollar terms. Only segment forecast to grow in US dollar terms in 2015 as deepening smartphone ownership continues to drive value increases.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Poland 2013-2019)
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2012-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Europe Risk/Rewards Index - Q4 2015
Table: PC Sales (Poland 2013-2019)
Table: AV Sales (Poland 2013-2019)
Table: Mobile Communications (Poland 2013-2019)
Table: Jabil Circuit Poland
Table: LG Poland
Table: Orion Poland
Table: TPV Displays
Table: Action SA
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Electronics Trade, 2012-2019
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators