Polysilicon 2015-2018: Supply, Demand, Cost and Pricing

Polysilicon 2015-2018: Supply, Demand, Cost and Pricing

GTM, Date of Publication: Oct 14, 2014
US$2,995.00
GTM5878

Polysilicon is the primary feedstock used for the production of crystalline silicon PV, which constituted 90 percent of global PV module production in 2013. In recent years, rapid growth of the PV market has led to the emergence of a dedicated solar polysilicon supply chain, and the solar industry now dominates global polysilicon consumption (estimated 90% in 2014). After enduring a sustained period of severe overcapacity in 2011-2013, pricing rebounded strongly in 2014, and renewed confidence in strong end-market growth in 2014-2016 has prompted the re-start of many previously shuttered plants and the resumption of capacity addition plans in 2015.

In 2013, the top five vendors – GCL, Wacker, Hemlock, OCI and REC – comprised 81% of total worldwide polysilicon production of 215 KMT. This establishes that even with the introduction of many new entrants since 2009, polysilicon production remains concentrated within a handful of firms. Globally, China constituted 35% of 2013 production, followed by the U.S. (24%), Germany (23%) and South Korea (12%), with producers in other regions (primarily Japan) making up the remaining 6%.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Key Findings

2. Market Basics

  • Solar Polysilicon Market Basics
  • Polysilicon Supplier Landscape and Taxonomy
  • Polysilicon Market Dynamics, 2010-2014
  • Timeline of Recent Market Developments
  • China's Antidumping Tariffs on Polysilicon Imports
  • PV Ingot/Wafer Market Basics

3. 2013 Production Trends

  • Market Share by Firm
  • Regional Production and Key Vendors by Country
  • Top 15 Global Producers
  • Top 10 Global Wafer Producers

4. Production Technology Assessment

  • Production Technology Primer
  • Siemens Process
  • Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR)
  • Upgraded Metallurgical-Grade (UMG)
  • Polysilicon Process Flow/Technology Map
  • Polysilicon Production Technology Comparison
  • Are FBR and UMG Suitable for High-Efficiency Cells
  • FBR Value Proposition and Outlook

5. Plant Capex and Manufacturing Costs

  • Capex by Plant, Region and Technology
  • 2014 Manufacturing Costs by Technology/Region
  • Manufacturing Cost Structure: TCS Siemens
  • Manufacturing Cost Reductions: Industry Leaders
  • 2015 Cash Cost Curve/Supply Stack

6. Supply, Demand and Consumption

  • Planned Capacity Additions, 2014-2018
  • How Much Polysilicon Supply is Too Much
  • 2015-2018 Supply-Demand Balance
  • Polysilicon Demand Outlook
  • Market Impact of China's Anti-Dumping Tariffs
  • Silicon Utilization Trends

7. Pricing

  • Recent Pricing Dynamics
  • Seasonal Trends in Spot Pricing
  • Supplier-specific Pricing Trends
  • Analysis of Supplier Economics
  • 2015-2018 Pricing Outlook
  • Polysilicon Impact on PV Module Economics

8. Competitive Dynamics

  • Vendor Competitive Positioning Assessment
  • Market Categorization and SWOT Analysis

List of Figures

2. Market Basics

  • Polysilicon Vendor Taxonomy
  • Global Polysilicon Supply, Demand and Pricing, 2010-2014
  • Timeline of Market Developments, 2012-2014
  • China Antidumping Tariff Margins on Polysilicon Imports
  • Global PV Wafer Production by Manufacturing Location, 2013

3. 2013 Production Trends

  • 2013 Polysilicon Production and Market Share by Vendor
  • 2013 Production and Key Vendors by Country
  • Top 15 Global Polysilicon Producers, 2013
  • Top Ten PV Wafer Producers, 2013

4. Production Technology Assessment

  • Ramped Polysilicon Capacity by Production Technology, 2014E
  • Polysilicon Process Flow/Technology Map
  • Polysilicon Production Technology Comparison Table
  • Estimated Production Share by Cell Technology, 2014E vs. 2020E
  • Ramped Polysilicon Capacity by Production Technology, 2013-2018E

5. Plant Capex and Manufacturing Costs

  • Greenfield Polysilicon Plant Capex by Manufacturing Location and Technology
  • Polysilicon Capital Costs by Plant, 2010-2018
  • Industry-Leading Polysilicon Manufacturing Cost by Technology and Location, 2014
  • Polysilicon Manufacturing Cost Structure, TCS Siemens HC Plant, 2014
  • Polysilicon Manufacturing Cost, H1 2013 -H1 2015E, Low-Cost Producers
  • 2015E Polysilicon Cash Cost Curve/Supply Stack

6. Supply, Demand and Consumption

  • Planned Capacity Additions, 2014-2018
  • Active Chinese Polysilicon Producers, Q3 2014
  • Nameplate Capacity Share by Polysilicon Plant Size, YE 2015E
  • Nameplate vs Ramped (Available) Polysilicon Capacity, 2011-2014E
  • Excess Capacity Levels, Polysilicon vs Module, 2009-2014E
  • Global Polysilicon Demand, 2012-2018E
  • Excess Polysilicon Capacity, 2012-2018E
  • 2015E Polysilicon Supply-Demand Reconciliation, China
  • Silicon Utilization (Wafer), 2010-2018E
  • Silicon Utilization, 2014-2018, Best-in-Class Multi c-Si Wafer

7. Pricing

  • Polysilicon Pricing - Spot vs Industry Average, Q1 2013-Q3 2014
  • Global Spot Price Trend, Week 1-26, 2011-2014
  • Monthly China Polysilicon Import Price by Supplier Location, 2013-2014
  • Supplier Cost-Based Polysilicon Pricing Analysis, 2013-2018E
  • Blended Industry Average Solar-Grade Polysilicon Price, Q4 2012-Q4 2018E
  • Polysilicon Cost per Watt and Contribution to Module Cost Structure, Q4 2013-Q4 2018E

8. Competitive Dynamics

  • Supplier Categorization and SWOT Analysis Table
  • Vendor Competitive Positioning Assessment Table 
Date of Publication:
Oct 14, 2014
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