We expect the consumer electronics market will return to growth in 2015, but baht depreciation against the US dollar will continue to be a drag on growth through deferred purchases and substitution for lower cost models as Thai household purchasing power is eroded in global markets. Nonetheless 2015 will see stronger performance than 2014 when growth across segments was uneven in a climate of political uncertainty and baht depreciation. The computer hardware and AV segments contracted, but handset sales continued to grow. We expect a revival the growth trend from 2016 as the economic and political environment becomes more supportive, supporting a CAGR of 2.8% in US dollar terms 2015-2019 to a total value of almost USD8.2bn. There will also be trends across market segments, for instance, we expect demand will be boosted by price competition between vendors, with a number of global vendors targeting the market for growth, as well as operator investment in data network expansion and digital TV migration.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD2.4bn in 2014 to USD2.4bn in 2015, a contraction of 0.7%. Baht depreciation and intense price competition in the tablet and notebook markets will result in value contraction, although PC volumes are forecast to increase in 2015.
AV Sales: USD1.5bn in 2014 to USD1.4bn in 2015, a contraction of 6.5%. The AV market declined 2012-2014 as a result of TV market saturation, price erosion, digital camera cannibalisation by smartphones, and most recently political unrest, and these trends are expected to continue into 2015, albeit easing slightly.
Handset Sales: USD3.2bn in 2014 to USD3.3bn in 2015, an increase of 5.0%. Handset market will again outperform, but growth set to continue slowing as smartphone first-time buyer opportunities diminish and price competition intensifies.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Industry View SWOT Consumer Electronics Market Political Economic Operational Risk Industry Forecast Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Malaysia 2013-2019) Macroeconomic Forecasts Economic Analysis Table: Economic Activity (Malaysia 2010-2019) Industry Risk Reward Ratings Industry Risk Reward Index Table: Asia CE Risk/Reward Index - Q415 Market Overview Computers Table: PC Sales (Malaysia 2013-2019) AV Table: AV Sales (Malaysia 2013-2019) Mobile Handsets Table: Mobile Communications (Malaysia 2013-2019) Competitive Landscape International Companies Table: Lenovo Table: Acer Table: Panasonic Local Companies Table: Malaysian Pacific Industries Industry Trends And Developments Table: Electronics Output, 2010-2019 (USDbn) Regulatory Developments Table: Government Authorities Demographic Forecast Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025) Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025) Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025) Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025) Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025) Methodology Industry Forecast Methodology Sector-Specific Methodology Sources Risk/Reward Index Methodology Sector-Specific Methodology Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators Table: Weighting Of Indicators