Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast, 2015–2019

Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Market Forecast

This study discusses the hard disk drives (HDDs) shipped worldwide for use in PC and enterprise systems, in personal storage devices, and in consumer electronics products, as well as HDDs shipped to global distributors or sold through retail for system upgrades. HDD unit shipments will steadily decline for 2014–2019 period. Over the next five years, HDD suppliers will be challenged to cost-reduce HDDs. Slow HDD areal density (capacity per disk) growth means that a steadily increasing number of components per drive will be needed on average to reach higher capacity points, particularly for the enterprise segment. This dynamic will push the overall blended average HDD ASP higher each year over the forecast period, a significant shift from long-term historical trend for steadily decreasing blended ASPs.

"The HDD industry will experience a significant segment shift from 2014 to 2018. More than 40% of HDD industry revenue and 45% of HDD petabyte demand will be derived from the enterprise segment by 2018. In contrast, the PC segment overshadowed all other segments in 2014 as it made up more than 55% of unit shipments, and more than 45% of industry petabyte shipments, and revenue. As this segment shift ensues, enterprise customers will increasingly influence HDD product road map and technology development plans. Meanwhile, as HDD technology becomes progressively more complex, enterprise customers will also press for deeper integration of HDD technology at the device level into storage system solutions." — John Rydning, research vice president, Worldwide Hard Disk Drives

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