Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2017–2021

This study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1.99 billion unit shipments in 2017, up a slim 1.1% from the 1.97 billion units shipped in 2016. From there, total mobile phone shipments will reach 2.03 billion units worldwide, resulting in a CAGR of 0.6% for 2016–2021.

2016 represented the first year that the mobile phone industry (inclusive of smartphones) failed to grow from the previous year. Although smartphones rebounded nicely in the fourth quarter to bring 2.5% growth in 2016, the 7.9% decline in feature phones was just too much to overcome, and thus the market fell by 0.3%. A steady decline in feature phones is expected each year as more and more users transition to smartphones. We expect smartphone growth to rebound to 4.2% growth in 2017 offsetting the 8.1% decline in feature phones to bring growth (1.1%) back to the market in 2017."

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast
TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Attachments

Market Forecast Figure

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Snapshot

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Phablets Set to Drive Growth

Cost

Innovation and Litigation

Market Forecast

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2016–2021

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2016–2021

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Region

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2016–2021 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2016–2021

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2016–2021 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2016–2021

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Device Type, 2016–2021

Feature Phones

Smartphones

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Air Interface Group

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2016–2021 (M)

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021

Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2016–2021 (M)

Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021

Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface, 2016–2021 (M)

Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021

CDMA

GSM

UMTS/WCDMA

4G

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by ASP

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2016–2021 ($)

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2016–2021

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2016–2021 ($)

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2016–2021

Market Context

Drivers and Inhibitors

Drivers

Technology

Handset Pricing

Component Costs

Inhibitors

Exchange Rates

Economy

Significant Market Developments

Blast from the Past

Changes from Prior Forecast

Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2011–2021: Comparison of December 2016 and March 2017 Forecasts (M)

Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2011–2021: Comparison of December 2016 and March 2017 Forecasts

Market Definition

Feature Phone

Smartphone

Methodology

Primary Data Sources

Secondary Sources

Related Research