Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast Update, 2018–2022

This study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device type. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1,897.3 million unit shipments in 2018, down 4.1% from the 1,977.6 million units shipped in 2017. From there, total mobile phone shipments will reach 1,828.3 million units worldwide by 2022, resulting in a CAGR of -1.6% from 2017 to 2022.

Even though 2018 will bring a larger decrease than previously forecast, we are still optimistic that 2019 will bring nearly 3% growth to the smartphone market at a worldwide level. The 2.6% smartphone growth in 2019 will be driven by the appetite for both high-end and affordable large-screened devices, the arrival of 5G, and double-digit growth in a handful of emerging markets such as India, Vietnam, and Nigeria. Smartphones with 6–7in. screens will be the biggest driver as they will grow by 76.4% in 2019 while making up 42.3% of the total volume. By 2022, the last year of our forecast period, the 6–7in. screen size band will reach 920.2 million units, making up 58.5% of all smartphones shipped in 2022.

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast
TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Attachments
Market Forecast Figure
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Snapshot
Executive Summary
Advice for Technology Suppliers
The Messaging Around 5G
Affordable Handsets Are Still Key
Market Forecast
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2017–2022
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2017–2022
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Region
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2017–2022
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2017–2022
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Device Type, 2017–2022
Feature Phones
Smartphones
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Air Interface and Air Interface Group
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2017–2022 (M)
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2017–2022
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2017–2022 (M)
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2017–2022
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface, 2017–2022 (M)
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2017–2022
CDMA
GSM
UMTS/WCDMA
4G
5G
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by ASP
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2017–2022 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2017–2022
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2017–2022 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2017–2022
Market Context
Drivers and Inhibitors
Drivers
Economy
Larger Screen Sizes
5G Handsets
Larger Screen Sizes
5G Handsets
Inhibitors
Exchange Rates
Replacement Rates
Significant Market Developments
The More Cameras the Merrier
Changes from Prior Forecast
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2012–2022: Comparison of September 2018 and December 2018 Forecasts (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2012–2022: Comparison of September 2018 and December 2018 Forecasts
Market Definition
Feature Phone
Smartphone
Methodology
Primary Data Sources
Secondary Sources
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
Related Research