Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2017–2021

This study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1,990.9 million unit shipments in 2017, up 0.4% from the 1,982.7 million units shipped in 2016. From there, total mobile phone shipments will reach 2,027.6 million units worldwide by 2021, resulting in a CAGR of 0.4% from 2016 to 2021.

Despite the mild growth to the total mobile phone market in 2017, we are forecasting intensified growth when it comes to the average selling price of a device during the year. With the ultra-high-end sector of the market booming in many developed markets as well as feature phones making way for pricier smartphones, the average selling price of a mobile phone will grow 8.2% on a worldwide level. Devices like the iPhone 8/8 Plus/X, Galaxy Note 8, Oneplus 5, and V30 all bring heavier price tags to the market than their predecessors did. We expect to see more expensive flagships hit the market as the ASP for mobile phones climbs to $248.19 by 2021, resulting in a CAGR of 2.9% from 2016 to 2021.

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast
TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Attachments
IDC Market Forecast Figure
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Snapshot
Executive Summary
Advice for Technology Suppliers
Phablets Continue to Dominate the Market
Stay Ahead of the Curve
Cost Will Remain Key in Emerging Markets
Market Forecast
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2016–2021
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2016–2021
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Region
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2016–2021 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2016–2021
Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2016–2021 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2016–2021
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Device Type, 2016–2021
Feature Phones
Smartphones
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Air Interface Group
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2016–2021 (M)
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2016–2021 (M)
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface, 2016–2021 (M)
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2016–2021
CDMA
GSM
UMTS/WCDMA
4G
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by ASP
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2016–2021 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2016–2021
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2016–2021 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2016–2021
Market Context
Drivers and Inhibitors
Drivers
Screen Sizes
Component Cost
Handset Pricing
Inhibitors
Exchange Rates
Economy
Significant Market Developments
Changes from Prior Forecast
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2011–2021: Comparison of June 2017 and September 2017 Forecasts (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2011–2021: Comparison of June 2017 and September 2017 Forecasts
Market Definition
Feature Phone
Smartphone
Methodology
Primary Data Sources
Secondary Sources
Related Research