Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2019–2023

This study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device type. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1,802.3 million unit shipments in 2019, down 4.7% from the 1,891.1 million units shipped in 2018. From there, total mobile phone shipments will dip to 1,778.8 million units worldwide by 2023, resulting in a CAGR of -1.2% from 2018 to 2023.

The 4.1% decline in 2018 for smartphones will improve slightly in 2019 but will not be enough to bring the market back to growth by the end of the year.The 1% smartphone decline in 2019 will be caused by many of the same problems that hindered growth in 2018. The continuation of longer replacement cycles, a challenged China market, and geopolitical headwinds will be just too much to overcome in 2019 despite the arrival of 5G and new foldable form factors. However, 2020 should bring the market back to growth as we expect many regions to rebound, thanks to larger-scale deployments of 5G, which should kick-start device refresh cycles in numerous markets.

Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast
TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Attachments
Market Forecast Figure
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Snapshot
Executive Summary
Advice for Technology Suppliers
Trade-In Is the New Subsidy
First-Time Buyers Remain Critical
Market Forecast
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2018–2023
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2018–2023
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Region
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2018–2023 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2018–2023
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2018–2023 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Device Type, 2018–2023
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Share by Device Type, 2018–2023
Feature Phones
Smartphones
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Air Interface and Air Interface Group
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2018–2023 (M)
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2018–2023 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2018–2023
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface, 2018–2023 (M)
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2018–2023 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2018–2023
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface, 2018–2023 (M)
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2018–2023 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Air Interface Group, 2018–2023
CDMA
GSM
UMTS/WCDMA
4G
5G
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by ASP
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2018–2023 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Region, 2018–2023
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2018–2023 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone ASPs by Product Category, 2018–2023
Market Context
Drivers and Inhibitors
Drivers
Larger Screen Sizes
5G Handsets
Inhibitors
Macroeconomics
Potential U.S. Action Against Huawei
Replacement Rates
Significant Market Developments
New 5G Devices Unveiled
Changes from Prior Forecast
Table: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Region, 2013–2023: Comparison of December 2018 and March 2019 Forecasts (M)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments, 2013–2023: Comparison of December 2018 and March 2019 Forecasts
Market Definition
Feature Phone
Smartphone
Methodology
Primary Data Sources
Secondary Sources