Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update, 2018–2022

Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update, 2018–2022

IDC, Date of Publication: Dec 20, 2018, 20 Pages
US$4,500.00
IDC-US44522418

This study presents the updated five-year forecast for smartphone shipments worldwide by operating system. The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.42 billion units shipped in 2018, down 3.1% from the 1.47 billion units shipped in 2017. From there, shipments will reach 1.57 billion units in 2022, the final year of our forecast period, resulting in a CAGR of 1.4%.

Growing ASPs and longer upgrade cycles continue to deter the growth of the smartphone market in 2018. We are estimating that, in this holiday quarter, both Android and iOS will witness a decline despite the busy shopping season. An overall 0.9% decline in the fourth quarter will be a contributing factor to the 3.1% decline we will see in 2018.

Although 2018 will bring a decline to the market, looking forward, we expect single-digit growth, thanks to the arrival of 5G in certain markets and the continued growth in emerging markets like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Despite the 2019 growth from Android, we are still expecting a down year for Apple as it will be sidelined for the 5G party. This could play to Apple's advantage as its 'sit back and watch' game might help it avoid any 5G launch bugs that could impact Android vendors moving forward.

Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update
TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Attachments
Market Forecast Figure
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Snapshot for Select Markets
Executive Summary
Advice for Technology Suppliers
Looking Past the Notch
Financing and Trade-In Remain Pivotal
Market Forecast
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by Operating System
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share and Shipments by Operating System, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Operating System, 2017–2022
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Operating System, 2017–2022
Android
iOS
Windows Phone
Other
Worldwide Forecast Comparison: Smartphones Versus Feature Phones
Table: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipments, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone and Feature Phone Shipments, 2017–2022
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone and Feature Phone Shipment Share, 2017–2022
Feature Phones
Smartphones
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by Region
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2017–2022 (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2017–2022
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Region, 2017–2022
Worldwide Smartphone ASP Forecast
Table: Worldwide Smartphone ASPs by Operating System, 2017–2022 ($)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone ASPs by Operating System, 2017–2022
Market Context
Drivers and Inhibitors
Drivers
5G Handsets
Economy
Larger Screen Sizes
Inhibitors
Replacement Rates
Exchange Rates
Significant Market Developments
Enter the Foldable Phone
Changes from Prior Forecast
Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2012–2022: Comparison of September 2018 and December 2018 Forecasts (M)
Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments, 2012–2022: Comparison of September 2018 and December 2018 Forecasts
Market Definition
Feature Phone
Smartphone
Phablet
Methodology
Primary Data Sources
Secondary Sources
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker
Related Research

Date of Publication:
Dec 20, 2018
File Format:
PDF via E-mail
Number of Pages:
20 Pages