Worldwide Smartphone 2013–2017 Forecast and Analysis

Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update, 2016–2020

IDC, Date of Publication: Sep 27, 2016, 21 Pages
US$4,500.00
IDC-256836

This study presents the updated five-year forecast for smartphone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.46 billion units shipped in 2016, up 1.6% from the 1.44 billion units shipped in 2015. From there, shipments will reach 1.76 billion units in 2020, the final year of our forecast period, resulting in a CAGR of 4.1%.

The first half of 2016 has brought minimal growth compared with 1H15 because of a sharp decline in volume from iOS, Windows Phone, and BlackBerry. Despite flat shipment in 1H16, we expect 2H16 to bring 3.1% growth, thanks to an increase of Android devices as well as Apple's next flagship devices. In 2017 and 2018, the market will recover nicely with 4.6% and 5.7% growth, respectively. Contributing to this increase will be a combination of both affordable and flagship Android devices geared toward both emerging and developed markets, as well as new iOS devices that will capture new users in growing markets and drive replacement rates forward in mature markets like the United States, China, and Western Europe.

Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update
TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Attachments

IDC Market Forecast Figure

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Snapshot

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Phablets Become Affordable

Low-Cost Smartphones Continue to Drive Growth

The BYO Phenomena and the Niche

Market Forecast

Forecast by Operating System

Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share and Shipments by Operating System, 2015–2020

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Operating System, 2015–2020

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Operating System, 2015–2020

Android

BlackBerry OS

Firefox

iOS

Sailfish

Symbian

Tizen

Windows Phone

Forecast Comparison: Smartphones Versus Feature Phones

Table: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipments, 2015–2020 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipments, 2015–2020

Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipment Share, 2015–2020

Feature Phones

Smartphones

Forecast by Region

Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2015–2020 (M)

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2015–2020

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Region, 2015–2020

Smartphone ASP Forecast

Table: Worldwide Smartphone ASPs by Operating System, 2015–2020 ($)

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone ASPs by Operating System, 2015–2020

Market Context

Drivers and Inhibitors

Drivers

LTE Growth

Unlocked Smartphones

Inhibitors

Economy

Windows Phone

BlackBerry

Significant Market Developments

Changes from Prior Forecast

Explanation for Change

Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2010–2020: Comparison of June 2016 and September 2016 Forecasts (M)

Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2010–2020: Comparison of June 2016 and September 2016 Forecasts

Market Definition

Feature Phone

Smartphone

Phablet

Methodology

Primary Data Sources

Secondary Sources

 

  1. Related Research

Date of Publication:
Sep 27, 2016
File Format:
PDF via E-mail
Number of Pages:
21 Pages