Smart Machines: Technologies and Global Markets

The possibilities and challenges created by “smart” machines replacing humans have been a staple of science fiction for nearly 150 years, beginning with Samuel Butler’s novel Erewhon. Since then, the theme of smart machines has been developed in numerous books and films, most of which portray smart machines either as mankind’s helpers (e.g., Isaac Asimov’s Robot books), its equal partners (Star Trek: The Next Generation’s Lt. Commander Data) or its implacable enemies (The Terminator’s Skynet).

As a result, it is difficult not to feel a sense of déjà vu at the recent Gartner Research report, “Surviving the Rise of ‘Smart Machines’, the Loss of ‘Dream Jobs’ and ‘90% Unemployment’ ”, published in late 2013. The report’s authors warn that by 2020, labor reductions caused by smart machines could cause social unrest in some advanced economies (i.e., smart machines as the enemy). Smart machines may also help to retrain workers and help them to acquire the skills needed for new jobs (smart machines as helpers), but in the end, smart machines should be recognized as part of the workforce (smart machines as partners).

Some critics have downplayed the Gartner report’s conclusions as overly pessimistic or at least premature, but there is no doubt the number of smart machines and their role in the modern economy and society are expanding rapidly. Not only that, the rate of progress in smart machines is set to increase dramatically thanks to a combination of Moore’s law and the melding of various enabling technologies, e.g., machine learning, voice recognition and nanotechnology.[1]

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

Amid the debate about the benefits and risks of smart machines, or the effects they might have on society or the economy, the goal of this report is more concrete. Its goal is both to provide the reader with an understanding of the technologies that will influence the future size and structure of the market for smart machines and related technologies.

Specific objectives include:

• Identifying smart machine products and related technologies with the greatest commercial potential over the next ten years (2013 to 2024).
• Analyzing the key drivers and constraints that will shape the market for these products and technologies over the next ten years.
• Estimating the current and future demand for smart machine products and enabling technologies.
• Ascertaining which companies are best positioned to meet this demand, because of proprietary technologies, strategic alliances or other advantages.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

This report is intended especially for executives, entrepreneurs, investors, venture capitalists, and other readers with a need to know where the market for smart machines and related technologies is headed and where the greatest potential for growth exists in the next ten years.

Although the report is organized around specific technologies, it is largely nontechnical in nature and coverage. That is, it is concerned less with theory and jargon than with what works; how much of the latter the market is likely to purchase, and at what price.

The report has not been written specifically for scientists and technologists. However, the report’s findings concerning the market for their work, including the availability of government and corporate research funding for different technologies and applications, should interest them as well.

SCOPE AND FORMAT

The proposed report will identify and quantify the potential market for various types of smart machines, including:

    Virtual reality assistants (e.g., Siri).
    Intelligent agents (e.g., automated online assistants).
    Expert systems (e.g., medical decision support systems, smart grid).
    Embedded software (machine monitoring and control systems).
    Autonomous robots (including self-driving vehicles).
    Purpose-built smart machines (such as neural computers).

These technologies are generally at an early stage of development, so it will be necessary to consider the market at least as far out as 2024 to obtain meaningful results. A separate section of the report discusses the development and future sales of key enabling technologies for the next generation of smart machines, such as:

    Voice recognition technology.
    Micro- and nanosensors.
    Radio frequency technologies.
    Neurocomputing.

The study format includes the following major elements:

    Executive summary.
    Definitions.
    Historical milestones.
    Technologies and applications that have the greatest commercial potential through 2024.
    Detailed market estimates and projections for each technology and application during the period 2013 to 2019.
    General assessment of expected market trends in the longer term (2019 to 2024).
    Companies, academic and government laboratories that are developing smart machines.
    Patent analysis.

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

The global market for smart machines was valued at $5.3 billion in 2013. This market is expected to increase to over $6.2 billion in 2014 and nearly $15.3 billion in 2019, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.7% for the five-year period 2014 to 2019.

This report provides:

• An overview of the global market for smart machines.
• The details which define these machines including the ability to adapt to and learn from changing conditions in real time, the capacity to operate autonomously (without direct human supervision), and having the capability to communicate with other machines.
• Analyses of global market trends, with data from 2013, estimates for 2014 and 2019, and projections of CAGRs through 2024.
• Potential markets for various types of smart machines such as virtual reality assistants, intelligent agents, expert systems, embedded software, autonomous robots, and purpose-built smart machines.
• Key enabling technologies for the next generation of smart machines, including voice recognition technology, micro- and nanosensors, radio frequency technologies, and neurocomputing.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION - Complimentary  

    STUDY BACKGROUND
    STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
    INTENDED AUDIENCE
    SCOPE AND FORMAT
    INFORMATION SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
    ANALYST'S CREDENTIALS
    DISCLAIMER

Chapter 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY     $250
    
Chapter 3: OVERVIEW      $475    

    DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
    HISTORY OF SMART MACHINES
        1957
        1959
        1961
        1965
        1966
        1968
        1971
        1979
        1982
        1986
        1989
        1992
        1994
        1997
        1999
        2004
        2013
    TYPES OF SMART MACHINES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
    MARKET FOR SMART MACHINES

Chapter 4: ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR SMART MACHINES       $611    

    MACHINE SPEECH TECHNOLOGY
        SPEECH RECOGNITION
        SPEECH SYNTHESIS
    SENSORS
        MICROSENSORS
        NANOSENSORS
    MACHINE VISION
        ALGORITHMS
        CALIBRATION
        CAMERAS
    RADIO FREQUENCY TECHNOLOGIES
        RFID
        GPS
        WIRELESS NETWORKING
            Digital Mobile Telephony
            Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications
            Machine-to-Machine Communications
    POWER SOURCES
        PHOTOVOLTAICS
        NUCLEAR POWER
        MOLECULAR FUEL CELLS
        OCEAN ENERGY
    SELF-REPAIR
    UNCONVENTIONAL COMPUTATION

Chapter 5: EXPERT SYSTEMS      $679    

    DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
    TECHNOLOGIES
        KNOWLEDGE-BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS
        PROBABILISTIC EXPERT SYSTEMS
        HEURISTIC SYSTEMS
    APPLICATIONS
        AUTOMATIC FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEMS
        MEDICINE
            Workflow Integration
        FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
            Expert Systems for Financial Analysis of Firms
            Expert Systems for Analyzing the Causes of Successful or Unsuccessful Business Development
            Expert Systems for Market Analysis
            Expert Systems for Acquiring Knowledge in a Subfield of Finance
        GEOLOGY
        CHEMISTRY
        METEOROLOGY
        OTHER APPLICATIONS
    MARKETS

Chapter 6: NEURAL COMPUTERS      $1493    

    DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
        BIOLOGICAL NEUROCOMPUTERS
        ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
    TECHNOLOGIES
        GENERAL PRINCIPLES
        PHYSICAL ANNS
            Memristive Neural Networks
            Other Developments
        SOFTWARE-BASED ANNS
    APPLICATIONS
        BANKING AND FINANCE
        DEFENSE AND PUBLIC SAFETY
            Defense
            Public Safety
        MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
        MARKETING AND SALES
            Market Segmentation
            Customer Behavior Analysis
            Market Forecasting
        STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS POLICY
        TELECOMMUNICATIONS
            Equalizers
            Network Design, Management, Routing and Control
            Fault Management
            Fraud Detection
        HEALTH CARE
            Clinical Diagnosis
            Image Analysis and Interpretation
            Signal Analysis and Interpretation
            Drug Development
            Biochemical Analysis
    MARKETS
        PHYSICAL ANNS
        SOFTWARE ANNS

Chapter 7: AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS      $3121    

    DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
    TECHNOLOGIES
        AUTONOMOUS LEARNING
        SELF-MAINTENANCE
            Diagnostic Systems
            Self-Repairing Materials and Systems
        PROPRIOSENSING
        SENSING THE ENVIRONMENT
        TASK PERFORMANCE
        INDOOR POSITION SENSING AND NAVIGATION
        POSITION SENSING AND NAVIGATION
            Surface (Terrestrial) Robots
            Underwater Robots
            Aerial Robots
        ENERGY
        INTEROPERABILITY
    APPLICATIONS
        AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
            Self-Driving Cars
            Public Transit Vehicles
        INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
            Baxter
            "Little Helper"
            "YouBot"
        MILITARY ROBOTS
            PackBot
            Legged Squad Support System
            Self-Driving Vehicles
            Micro Autonomous Systems
            Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
            Undersea Warfare Vessels
            Shipboard Autonomous Firefighting Robot
        AGRICULTURE
            Self-Steering Tractors
            "Hortibot"
            "Lettuce Bot"
            Vitirover
            Wall-Ye
            Robotic Harvester
            Soil Sterilizer
            Prospero
        CLEANING ROBOTS
        MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION
            Terrestrial Activities
            Offshore/Undersea Activities
        SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
            Space Exploration
            Submarine Research
            Laboratory Research
        HEALTH CARE
        LOGISTICS
    MARKETS
        SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES
        INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
        MILITARY ROBOTS
        AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS
        CLEANING ROBOTS
        MEDICAL ROBOTS
        MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION
        SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
            Table 12 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
            Figure 1 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, 2013-2024
            Figure 2 : GLOBAL SALES OF AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS BY TYPE OF END USE, 2013-2024

Chapter 8: EMBEDDED SYSTEMS       $543    

    DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION, AND PROPERTIES
    TECHNOLOGIES
        MULTI-CORE PROCESSORS IN EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
        EMBEDDED OPERATING SYSTEMS
        EMBEDDED DIGITAL SECURITY
        DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY
    APPLICATIONS
        SMART GRID
        MEDICAL DEVICES
            Medical Implants
            Monitoring Devices
            Elder Care
    MARKETS

Chapter 9: INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS       $407    

    DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
    TECHNOLOGIES
        NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING
        PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE
    APPLICATIONS
        CONSUMER APPLICATIONS
        ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
            Customer-Facing Applications
                Sector-Specific Applications
            Internal-Facing Applications
    MARKETS

Chapter 10: APPENDIX A: COMPANIES, ACADEMIC AND GOVERNMENT LABORATORIES DEVELOPING SMART MACHINES AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES       $2036    

    ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
        BAOLAB MICROSYSTEMS, S.L.
        BRISTOL ROBOTICS LABORATORY
        CYCLONE POWER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
        INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES
        ROBOTIC TECHNOLOGY, INC.
        ROBOTIC VISION TECHNOLOGIES
        SYSTRON DONNER INERTIAL
    EXPERT SYSTEMS
        ENGENIUS LLC
        EXSYS INC.
        HONEYWELL AEROSPACE
        ISABEL HEALTHCARE, INC.
        LIFECOM, INC.
        LOGICAL IMAGES, INC.
        MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL
        ROCKWELL COLLINS
        VANGUARD SOFTWARE CORP.
    NEUROCOMPUTING
        AB NONLINEAR SOLUTIONS OY
        ALYUDA RESEARCH, LLC
        AND CORP.
        ANFIELD CAPITAL
        APPLIED ANALYTIC SYSTEMS
        BRAIN CORP.
        CHURCHILL SYSTEMS INC.
        CROSSBAR, INC.
        HOLOGIC, INC.
        HRL LABORATORIES LLC
        INTELLIDYNAMICS
        KNOWM TECHNOLOGY LLC
        NEURODIMENSION INC.
        NEURALWARE
        PREDPOL, INC.
        QUALCOMM INC.
        REINCLOUD
        SCHILLER AG
        SIEMENS AG
        WARD SYSTEMS GROUP, INC.
    AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS
        AUTONOMOUS TRACTOR CORP.
        BAE SYSTEMS INC.
        BLUEFIN ROBOTICS CORP.
        BLUE RIVER TECHNOLOGY
        BOSTON DYNAMICS
        CATERPILLAR INC.
        C & C TECHNOLOGIES
        DORHOUT R&D LLC
        INDUCT TECHNOLOGY
        INTERNATIONAL SUBMARINE ENGINEERING LTD
        INTOUCH HEALTH
        IROBOT CORP.
        KOMATSU LTD.
        KONGSBERG MARITIME
        KUKA AG
        LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP.
        NORTHRUP GRUMMAN CORP.
        RETHINK ROBOTICS, INC.
        ROBOTIC HARVESTING LLC
        SAMSUNG TECHWIN
        SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
        TELEDYNE GAVIA EHF
        VISION ROBOTICS.
        VITIROVER
        WALL-YE
    EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
        COMVERGE, INC.
        EMBER CORP.
        GAINSPAN CORP.
        MEDTRONIC
        MMB NETWORKS, INC.
        SENSIMED AG
    INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS
        ANBOTO GROUP
        ARTIFICIAL SOLUTIONS
        ASTUTE SOLUTIONS
        CODEBABY
        CREATIVE VIRTUAL LTD.
        EXPERTMAKER AB
        INTELLIRESPONSE
        NEXTIT

    Chapter 11: APPENDIX B: PATENTS      $136    

    PATENTS BY TYPE OF SMART MACHINE
    PATENT PORTFOLIOS
 
List of Tables

    Summary Table : GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART MACHINES, THROUGH 2024
    Table 1 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART MACHINES, THROUGH 2024
    Table 2 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR EXPERT SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 3 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING
    Table 4 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
    Table 5 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN MARKETING AND SALES
    Table 6 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNS IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS POLICY
    Table 7 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
    Table 8 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN HEALTH CARE
    Table 9 : MARKET FOR NEURAL COMPUTING TECHNOLOGIES, 2013-2024
    Table 10 : PROJECTED MARKET FOR MEMRISTOR NEUROMORPHIC CHIPS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 11 : PROJECTED MARKET FOR SOFTWARE ANNs, THROUGH 2024
    Table 12 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 13 : MARKET FOR SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES, THROUGH 2024
    Table 14 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 15 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS MILITARY ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 16 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS UNDERSEA WARFARE ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 17 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 18 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS CLEANING ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 19 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN HEALTH CARE APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 20 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2024
    Table 21 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN RESEARCH APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 22 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART EMBEDDED SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 23 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS, THROUGH 2024
    Table 24 : LARGEST SMART MACHINE U.S. PATENT PORTFOLIOS

List of Figures

    Summary Figure : GLOBAL SMART MACHINE MARKET, 2013-2024
    Figure 1 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, 2013-2024
    Figure 2 : GLOBAL SALES OF AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS BY TYPE OF END USE, 2013-2024
    Figure 3 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS, 2013-2024
    Figure 4 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS MILITARY ROBOTS, 2013–2024
    Figure 5 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS MILITARY ROBOTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MILITARY ROBOT SALES, 2013-2024
    Figure 6 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS, 2013–2024
    Figure 7 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS CLEANING ROBOTS, 2013–2024
    Figure 8 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOT HEALTH CARE APPLICATIONS, 2013–2024
    Figure 9 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION, 2013-2024
    Figure 10 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN RESEARCH APPLICATIONS, 2013–2024
    Figure 11 : U.S. SMART MACHINE PATENTS BY TYPE OF SMART MACHINE ISSUED THROUGH MARCH 1, 2014