The possibilities and challenges created by “smart” machines replacing humans have been a staple of science fiction for nearly 150 years, beginning with Samuel Butler’s novel Erewhon. Since then, the theme of smart machines has been developed in numerous books and films, most of which portray smart machines either as mankind’s helpers (e.g., Isaac Asimov’s Robot books), its equal partners (Star Trek: The Next Generation’s Lt. Commander Data) or its implacable enemies (The Terminator’s Skynet).
As a result, it is difficult not to feel a sense of déjà vu at the recent Gartner Research report, “Surviving the Rise of ‘Smart Machines’, the Loss of ‘Dream Jobs’ and ‘90% Unemployment’ ”, published in late 2013. The report’s authors warn that by 2020, labor reductions caused by smart machines could cause social unrest in some advanced economies (i.e., smart machines as the enemy). Smart machines may also help to retrain workers and help them to acquire the skills needed for new jobs (smart machines as helpers), but in the end, smart machines should be recognized as part of the workforce (smart machines as partners).
Some critics have downplayed the Gartner report’s conclusions as overly pessimistic or at least premature, but there is no doubt the number of smart machines and their role in the modern economy and society are expanding rapidly. Not only that, the rate of progress in smart machines is set to increase dramatically thanks to a combination of Moore’s law and the melding of various enabling technologies, e.g., machine learning, voice recognition and nanotechnology.[1]
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Amid the debate about the benefits and risks of smart machines, or the effects they might have on society or the economy, the goal of this report is more concrete. Its goal is both to provide the reader with an understanding of the technologies that will influence the future size and structure of the market for smart machines and related technologies.
Specific objectives include:
INTENDED AUDIENCE
This report is intended especially for executives, entrepreneurs, investors, venture capitalists, and other readers with a need to know where the market for smart machines and related technologies is headed and where the greatest potential for growth exists in the next ten years.
Although the report is organized around specific technologies, it is largely nontechnical in nature and coverage. That is, it is concerned less with theory and jargon than with what works; how much of the latter the market is likely to purchase, and at what price.
The report has not been written specifically for scientists and technologists. However, the report’s findings concerning the market for their work, including the availability of government and corporate research funding for different technologies and applications, should interest them as well.
SCOPE AND FORMAT
The proposed report will identify and quantify the potential market for various types of smart machines, including:
Virtual reality assistants (e.g., Siri).
Intelligent agents (e.g., automated online assistants).
Expert systems (e.g., medical decision support systems, smart grid).
Embedded software (machine monitoring and control systems).
Autonomous robots (including self-driving vehicles).
Purpose-built smart machines (such as neural computers).
These technologies are generally at an early stage of development, so it will be necessary to consider the market at least as far out as 2024 to obtain meaningful results. A separate section of the report discusses the development and future sales of key enabling technologies for the next generation of smart machines, such as:
Voice recognition technology.
Micro- and nanosensors.
Radio frequency technologies.
Neurocomputing.
The study format includes the following major elements:
Executive summary.
Definitions.
Historical milestones.
Technologies and applications that have the greatest commercial potential through 2024.
Detailed market estimates and projections for each technology and application during the period 2013 to 2019.
General assessment of expected market trends in the longer term (2019 to 2024).
Companies, academic and government laboratories that are developing smart machines.
Patent analysis.
The global market for smart machines was valued at $5.3 billion in 2013. This market is expected to increase to over $6.2 billion in 2014 and nearly $15.3 billion in 2019, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.7% for the five-year period 2014 to 2019.
This report provides:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION - Complimentary
STUDY BACKGROUND
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
INTENDED AUDIENCE
SCOPE AND FORMAT
INFORMATION SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
ANALYST'S CREDENTIALS
DISCLAIMER
Chapter 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY $250
Chapter 3: OVERVIEW $475
DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
HISTORY OF SMART MACHINES
1957
1959
1961
1965
1966
1968
1971
1979
1982
1986
1989
1992
1994
1997
1999
2004
2013
TYPES OF SMART MACHINES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
MARKET FOR SMART MACHINES
Chapter 4: ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR SMART MACHINES $611
MACHINE SPEECH TECHNOLOGY
SPEECH RECOGNITION
SPEECH SYNTHESIS
SENSORS
MICROSENSORS
NANOSENSORS
MACHINE VISION
ALGORITHMS
CALIBRATION
CAMERAS
RADIO FREQUENCY TECHNOLOGIES
RFID
GPS
WIRELESS NETWORKING
Digital Mobile Telephony
Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications
Machine-to-Machine Communications
POWER SOURCES
PHOTOVOLTAICS
NUCLEAR POWER
MOLECULAR FUEL CELLS
OCEAN ENERGY
SELF-REPAIR
UNCONVENTIONAL COMPUTATION
Chapter 5: EXPERT SYSTEMS $679
DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
TECHNOLOGIES
KNOWLEDGE-BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS
PROBABILISTIC EXPERT SYSTEMS
HEURISTIC SYSTEMS
APPLICATIONS
AUTOMATIC FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEMS
MEDICINE
Workflow Integration
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Expert Systems for Financial Analysis of Firms
Expert Systems for Analyzing the Causes of Successful or Unsuccessful Business Development
Expert Systems for Market Analysis
Expert Systems for Acquiring Knowledge in a Subfield of Finance
GEOLOGY
CHEMISTRY
METEOROLOGY
OTHER APPLICATIONS
MARKETS
Chapter 6: NEURAL COMPUTERS $1493
DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
BIOLOGICAL NEUROCOMPUTERS
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
TECHNOLOGIES
GENERAL PRINCIPLES
PHYSICAL ANNS
Memristive Neural Networks
Other Developments
SOFTWARE-BASED ANNS
APPLICATIONS
BANKING AND FINANCE
DEFENSE AND PUBLIC SAFETY
Defense
Public Safety
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
MARKETING AND SALES
Market Segmentation
Customer Behavior Analysis
Market Forecasting
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS POLICY
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Equalizers
Network Design, Management, Routing and Control
Fault Management
Fraud Detection
HEALTH CARE
Clinical Diagnosis
Image Analysis and Interpretation
Signal Analysis and Interpretation
Drug Development
Biochemical Analysis
MARKETS
PHYSICAL ANNS
SOFTWARE ANNS
Chapter 7: AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS $3121
DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
TECHNOLOGIES
AUTONOMOUS LEARNING
SELF-MAINTENANCE
Diagnostic Systems
Self-Repairing Materials and Systems
PROPRIOSENSING
SENSING THE ENVIRONMENT
TASK PERFORMANCE
INDOOR POSITION SENSING AND NAVIGATION
POSITION SENSING AND NAVIGATION
Surface (Terrestrial) Robots
Underwater Robots
Aerial Robots
ENERGY
INTEROPERABILITY
APPLICATIONS
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
Self-Driving Cars
Public Transit Vehicles
INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
Baxter
"Little Helper"
"YouBot"
MILITARY ROBOTS
PackBot
Legged Squad Support System
Self-Driving Vehicles
Micro Autonomous Systems
Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
Undersea Warfare Vessels
Shipboard Autonomous Firefighting Robot
AGRICULTURE
Self-Steering Tractors
"Hortibot"
"Lettuce Bot"
Vitirover
Wall-Ye
Robotic Harvester
Soil Sterilizer
Prospero
CLEANING ROBOTS
MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION
Terrestrial Activities
Offshore/Undersea Activities
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Space Exploration
Submarine Research
Laboratory Research
HEALTH CARE
LOGISTICS
MARKETS
SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES
INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
MILITARY ROBOTS
AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS
CLEANING ROBOTS
MEDICAL ROBOTS
MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Table 12 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Figure 1 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, 2013-2024
Figure 2 : GLOBAL SALES OF AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS BY TYPE OF END USE, 2013-2024
Chapter 8: EMBEDDED SYSTEMS $543
DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION, AND PROPERTIES
TECHNOLOGIES
MULTI-CORE PROCESSORS IN EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
EMBEDDED OPERATING SYSTEMS
EMBEDDED DIGITAL SECURITY
DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY
APPLICATIONS
SMART GRID
MEDICAL DEVICES
Medical Implants
Monitoring Devices
Elder Care
MARKETS
Chapter 9: INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS $407
DEFINITION, GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND PROPERTIES
TECHNOLOGIES
NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING
PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE
APPLICATIONS
CONSUMER APPLICATIONS
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Customer-Facing Applications
Sector-Specific Applications
Internal-Facing Applications
MARKETS
Chapter 10: APPENDIX A: COMPANIES, ACADEMIC AND GOVERNMENT LABORATORIES DEVELOPING SMART MACHINES AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES $2036
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
BAOLAB MICROSYSTEMS, S.L.
BRISTOL ROBOTICS LABORATORY
CYCLONE POWER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES
ROBOTIC TECHNOLOGY, INC.
ROBOTIC VISION TECHNOLOGIES
SYSTRON DONNER INERTIAL
EXPERT SYSTEMS
ENGENIUS LLC
EXSYS INC.
HONEYWELL AEROSPACE
ISABEL HEALTHCARE, INC.
LIFECOM, INC.
LOGICAL IMAGES, INC.
MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL
ROCKWELL COLLINS
VANGUARD SOFTWARE CORP.
NEUROCOMPUTING
AB NONLINEAR SOLUTIONS OY
ALYUDA RESEARCH, LLC
AND CORP.
ANFIELD CAPITAL
APPLIED ANALYTIC SYSTEMS
BRAIN CORP.
CHURCHILL SYSTEMS INC.
CROSSBAR, INC.
HOLOGIC, INC.
HRL LABORATORIES LLC
INTELLIDYNAMICS
KNOWM TECHNOLOGY LLC
NEURODIMENSION INC.
NEURALWARE
PREDPOL, INC.
QUALCOMM INC.
REINCLOUD
SCHILLER AG
SIEMENS AG
WARD SYSTEMS GROUP, INC.
AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS
AUTONOMOUS TRACTOR CORP.
BAE SYSTEMS INC.
BLUEFIN ROBOTICS CORP.
BLUE RIVER TECHNOLOGY
BOSTON DYNAMICS
CATERPILLAR INC.
C & C TECHNOLOGIES
DORHOUT R&D LLC
INDUCT TECHNOLOGY
INTERNATIONAL SUBMARINE ENGINEERING LTD
INTOUCH HEALTH
IROBOT CORP.
KOMATSU LTD.
KONGSBERG MARITIME
KUKA AG
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP.
NORTHRUP GRUMMAN CORP.
RETHINK ROBOTICS, INC.
ROBOTIC HARVESTING LLC
SAMSUNG TECHWIN
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
TELEDYNE GAVIA EHF
VISION ROBOTICS.
VITIROVER
WALL-YE
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
COMVERGE, INC.
EMBER CORP.
GAINSPAN CORP.
MEDTRONIC
MMB NETWORKS, INC.
SENSIMED AG
INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS
ANBOTO GROUP
ARTIFICIAL SOLUTIONS
ASTUTE SOLUTIONS
CODEBABY
CREATIVE VIRTUAL LTD.
EXPERTMAKER AB
INTELLIRESPONSE
NEXTIT
Chapter 11: APPENDIX B: PATENTS $136
PATENTS BY TYPE OF SMART MACHINE
PATENT PORTFOLIOS
List of Tables
Summary Table : GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART MACHINES, THROUGH 2024
Table 1 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART MACHINES, THROUGH 2024
Table 2 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR EXPERT SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2024
Table 3 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING
Table 4 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
Table 5 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN MARKETING AND SALES
Table 6 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNS IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND BUSINESS POLICY
Table 7 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Table 8 : REPORTED APPLICATIONS OF ANNs IN HEALTH CARE
Table 9 : MARKET FOR NEURAL COMPUTING TECHNOLOGIES, 2013-2024
Table 10 : PROJECTED MARKET FOR MEMRISTOR NEUROMORPHIC CHIPS, THROUGH 2024
Table 11 : PROJECTED MARKET FOR SOFTWARE ANNs, THROUGH 2024
Table 12 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 13 : MARKET FOR SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES, THROUGH 2024
Table 14 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 15 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS MILITARY ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 16 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS UNDERSEA WARFARE ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 17 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 18 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS CLEANING ROBOTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 19 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN HEALTH CARE APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2024
Table 20 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2024
Table 21 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN RESEARCH APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2024
Table 22 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMART EMBEDDED SYSTEMS, THROUGH 2024
Table 23 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS, THROUGH 2024
Table 24 : LARGEST SMART MACHINE U.S. PATENT PORTFOLIOS
List of Figures
Summary Figure : GLOBAL SMART MACHINE MARKET, 2013-2024
Figure 1 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, 2013-2024
Figure 2 : GLOBAL SALES OF AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS BY TYPE OF END USE, 2013-2024
Figure 3 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS, 2013-2024
Figure 4 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS MILITARY ROBOTS, 2013–2024
Figure 5 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS MILITARY ROBOTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MILITARY ROBOT SALES, 2013-2024
Figure 6 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS AGRICULTURAL ROBOTS, 2013–2024
Figure 7 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS CLEANING ROBOTS, 2013–2024
Figure 8 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOT HEALTH CARE APPLICATIONS, 2013–2024
Figure 9 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN MINING AND ENERGY PRODUCTION, 2013-2024
Figure 10 : MARKET FOR AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS IN RESEARCH APPLICATIONS, 2013–2024
Figure 11 : U.S. SMART MACHINE PATENTS BY TYPE OF SMART MACHINE ISSUED THROUGH MARCH 1, 2014