World Outlook For Semiconductors, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment and Materials.  Econometric Studies

World Outlook For Semiconductors, Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment and Materials. Econometric Studies

ICON, Date of Publication: Apr 12, 2013
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We offer the following econometric studies covering the world outlook for semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials across more than 200 countries:

Reports are delivered by E-mail in PDF format.

The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Automotive Semiconductor Battery Chargers
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Discrete Semiconductors
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Electric Furnaces and Ovens for Diffusion, Oxidation, and Annealing of Semiconductor Wafers Excluding High-Frequency Induction and Dielectric and Resistance-Heated Furnaces and Ovens and All Parts and Attachments
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Industrial and Railroad Semiconductor Battery Chargers
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Integrated Microcircuits, Semiconductor Networks, Microprocessors, and MOS Memories
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Lead Frame Inserting Machines and Other Assembly and Packaging Equipment for Semiconductor Manufacturing Machinery Excluding Mold-And-Seal and Finish-And-Mark Packaging Equipment
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Manufacturing Capacitors, Resistors, Microprocessors, Bare and Loaded Printed Circuit Boards, Electron Tubes, Electronic Connectors, Computer Modems, Semiconductors, and Other Electronic Components
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Manufacturing Instruments for Measuring and Testing the Characteristics of Electricity and Electrical Signals, Circuit and Continuity Testers, Volt Meters, Ohm Meters, Wattmeters, Multimeters, and Semiconductor Test Equipme
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Manufacturing Wafer Processing Equipment, Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging Equipment, and Other Semiconductor Making Machinery
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Microwave Components and Devices Excluding Antennae, Tubes, and Semiconductors
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Mold-And-Seal and Finish-And-Mark Packaging Equipment for Semiconductor Manufacturing Machinery
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Packaging Equipment and Other Parts for Semiconductor Manufacturing Machinery
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Parts for Ion Beam and Plasma Machines Used to Process Semiconductor Wafers and Designs by Removal of Material
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Parts for Ion Implanters Used for Doping Semiconductor Wafers
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Parts for Machine Tools Used to Produce and Process Semiconductor Wafers
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Plasma Etch Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Saws and Scribing-Fracturing, Die Bonding, and Wire Bonding Semiconductor Assembly Dicing Machines
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor and Power Conversion Apparatus
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor and Related Device Manufacturing
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor Chips, Wafers, Heat Sinks, and Other Parts and Devices
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor High-Voltage Power Supplies in Excess of 2 KV and 100 KW or Less
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor High-Voltage Power Supplies in Excess of 2 KV and More Than 100 KW
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Excluding Furnaces and Ovens, Instruments, and Photographics
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor Network Integrated Microcircuits
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Semiconductor Testing Equipment
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Thin-Layer Chemical Vapor Deposition Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Thin-Layer Epitaxial Growth Deposition Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Thin-Layer Physical Vapor Deposition Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Wafer Processing Equipment Used to Grind and Polish Semiconductor Wafers
The 2013-2018 World Outlook for Wet Etch Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment

For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created.

The reports listed below do not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The studies also do not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. These studies, therefore, are strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. The studies do not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This studies give, however, an estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials. The reports also show how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, we also show our estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
  
 
WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for for semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e. not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a country market.

For reasons discussed later, these reports do not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e. a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e. the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.

As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e. at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e. via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for for semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.

 

Date of Publication:
Apr 12, 2013
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